Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2023 Q3: Deficit Widens
Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil contracted in Q3 2023, marked by declining exports and a persistent deficit.
- Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted a $230.17M trade deficit with Brazil (exports: $829.83M, imports: $1.06B), with exports falling YoY while imports showed mixed growth.
- Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Paraguay supplies fuels (33.45% of exports) and cereals, while Brazil dominates with machinery (16.53% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced: Brazil holds the value-add advantage, while Paraguay remains a commodity-dependent supplier.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Q3 2023
Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil
- Total Volume: Q3 2023 exports to Brazil totaled $829.83M.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted across all months, with September's -23.89% drop marking the sharpest contraction.
- No trade policy shifts or disruptions were reported to contextualize the downturn.
- Key Volatility: August saw a 4.2% MoM rise, but September reversed gains with a -5.73% MoM slump.
Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil
- Total Volume: Q3 2023 imports from Brazil reached $1.06B.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed: July (+2.56%) and September (+3.17%) expanded, while August (+0.73%) nearly flatlined.
- Key Volatility: July posted the strongest MoM gain (+5.4%), but September dipped -2.09% MoM.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of -$230.17M (Exports $829.83M vs. Imports $1.06B).
- Relationship Status: Paraguay remains a net importer of Brazilian goods, with imports exceeding exports by 21.7% in Q3.
Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 346.28M | 5.4% | 2.56% |
| Aug | 362.36M | 4.64% | 0.73% |
| Sep | 354.78M | -2.09% | 3.17% |
| Total | 1.06B | - | - |
Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 274.39M | 15.46% | -19.32% |
| Aug | 285.91M | 4.2% | -9.93% |
| Sep | 269.53M | -5.73% | -23.89% |
| Total | 829.83M | - | - |
Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records
Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Q3 2023
Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 33.45% of total exports to Brazil.
- Demand Driver: Brazil likely uses these for industrial processing or energy needs.
- Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 and HS 10 (Cereals) together accounting for 60.61% of exports.
Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 16.53% of total imports from Brazil.
- Dependency Nature: Imports suggest critical technology dependency, with machinery and industrial inputs dominating.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (fuels, cereals) and imports high-value machinery and industrial goods.
- Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced manufactured goods, while Paraguay provides commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 175.80M | 16.53% |
| 87 | 113.53M | 10.68% |
| 39 | 64.89M | 6.10% |
| 85 | 61.22M | 5.76% |
| 31 | 55.07M | 5.18% |
| 38 | 44.24M | 4.16% |
| 27 | 41.44M | 3.90% |
| 48 | 39.08M | 3.67% |
| 22 | 31.79M | 2.99% |
| 10 | 29.66M | 2.79% |
Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 277.60M | 33.45% |
| 10 | 225.40M | 27.16% |
| 85 | 60.16M | 7.25% |
| 02 | 43.80M | 5.28% |
| 12 | 27.87M | 3.36% |
| 38 | 21.39M | 2.58% |
| 61 | 17.27M | 2.08% |
| 04 | 15.02M | 1.81% |
| 39 | 14.94M | 1.80% |
| 63 | 14.65M | 1.77% |
Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Paraguay’s trade with Brazil is likely to face continued volatility in Q4 2023, with exports under pressure due to persistent YoY declines and import dependency on Brazilian machinery. The widening trade deficit (-$230.17M) signals structural risks, but Brazil’s steady demand for Paraguayan commodities (fuels, cereals) may stabilize volumes. Without policy intervention, the resource-for-tech imbalance will deepen, reinforcing Paraguay’s position as a raw material supplier. Traders should prepare for price sensitivity in key commodity exports and potential supply chain bottlenecks.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on Brazil by targeting alternative buyers for HS 27 (fuels) and HS 10 (cereals), such as Argentina or Chile, to mitigate demand shocks.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements for critical Brazilian machinery imports (HS 84) to hedge against currency fluctuations and input cost volatility.
- Invest in Value-Add Processing: Shift from raw commodity exports to semi-processed goods (e.g., refined fuels, milled grains) to capture higher margins and reduce trade deficit pressures.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2023 Q3?
Paraguay's exports to Brazil fell -23.89% YoY to $829.83M, while imports rose slightly to $1.06B, resulting in a trade deficit of -$230.17M.
What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?
Mineral fuels, oils (HS 27) and cereals (HS 10) dominate, together accounting for 60.61% of Paraguay's exports to Brazil.
What does Paraguay import from Brazil?
Machinery and nuclear reactors (HS 84) lead imports, representing 16.53% of total purchases, highlighting Paraguay's dependency on Brazilian industrial goods.
What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?
Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of -$230.17M with Brazil in Q3 2023, with imports exceeding exports by 21.7%.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2023 Whole Year: Deficit Deepens
Paraguay's trade deficit with Brazil hit $920M in 2023, driven by mineral fuel exports and machinery imports. Explore Paraguay Brazil trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2023 Q4: Deficit Narrows Slightly
Paraguay Brazil trade trend shows a narrowed deficit in Q4 2023, with mineral fuels and machinery as top trading products. Insights from yTrade reveal structural gaps.
