Paraguay - Brazil Trade 2023 Whole Year: Deficit Deepens
Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Brazil Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Brazil remained structurally imbalanced in 2023, with Paraguay deepening its trade deficit amid export declines and import dependency.
- Deficit-Driven Trade: Paraguay posted a $920M trade deficit with Brazil ($3.93B imports vs. $3.01B exports), exacerbated by double-digit export contractions (-23% YoY in Q2).
- Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - Brazil trade statistics reveal a lopsided exchange—Paraguay supplies mineral fuels (35.2%) and cereals while relying on Brazilian machinery (15.8%) and industrial goods.
- Asymmetric Interdependence: Brazil holds the value-chain advantage, with Paraguay locked into a commodity-export role critical for Brazil’s energy and processing needs.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Paraguay-Brazil Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023
Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Brazil
- Total Volume: $3.01B in 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted throughout the year, with the sharpest drops in March (-26.22%) and April (-31.44%).
- No recovery to 2022 levels, as all months except December (-0.58% YoY) posted double-digit contractions.
- Key Volatility: July saw the largest MoM rebound (+15.46%), but failed to sustain momentum.
Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Brazil
- Total Volume: $3.93B in 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY performance: growth in H1 (peaking at +18.04% in June) but flatlined in H2 (+0.73% YoY in August).
- March (+40.31% MoM) and May (+25.91% MoM) were standout recovery months after steep declines.
- Key Volatility: April recorded the steepest MoM drop (-22.13%), likely reflecting demand normalization post-Q1 volatility.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $920M (Imports $3.93B > Exports $3.01B).
- Relationship Status: Paraguay remains structurally dependent on Brazilian imports, though export declines (-23% YoY in Q2) exacerbated the deficit.
Paraguay Import Trend from Brazil 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 269.56M | -19.29% | 16.38% |
| Feb | 241.16M | -10.54% | -7.88% |
| Mar | 338.36M | 40.31% | 15.81% |
| Apr | 263.48M | -22.13% | -0.24% |
| May | 331.74M | 25.91% | 0.91% |
| Jun | 328.53M | -0.97% | 18.04% |
| Jul | 346.28M | 5.4% | 2.56% |
| Aug | 362.36M | 4.64% | 0.73% |
| Sep | 354.78M | -2.09% | 3.17% |
| Oct | 365.57M | 3.04% | 17.11% |
| Nov | 368.02M | 0.67% | 10.1% |
| Dec | 360.68M | -1.99% | 7.99% |
| Total | 3.93B | - | - |
Paraguay Export Trend to Brazil 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 233.70M | -10.09% | -6.7% |
| Feb | 249.86M | 6.91% | -3.31% |
| Mar | 230.51M | -7.74% | -26.22% |
| Apr | 207.63M | -9.93% | -31.44% |
| May | 239.55M | 15.38% | -21.84% |
| Jun | 237.64M | -0.8% | -28.35% |
| Jul | 274.39M | 15.46% | -19.32% |
| Aug | 285.91M | 4.2% | -9.93% |
| Sep | 269.53M | -5.73% | -23.89% |
| Oct | 256.61M | -4.79% | -19.78% |
| Nov | 269.70M | 5.1% | -13.71% |
| Dec | 258.42M | -4.18% | -0.58% |
| Total | 3.01B | - | - |
Get Historical Paraguay Brazil Trade Records
Paraguay-Brazil Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023
Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Brazil
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) dominates at 35.16% of total exports to Brazil.
- Demand Driver: Brazil likely uses these for energy needs or industrial processing, given the raw material nature of the top exports (HS 27, 10, 02).
- Concentration: The trade is highly concentrated, with HS 27 and 10 (Cereals) together accounting for 56.63% of exports.
Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Brazil
- Top Commodity: HS Code 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) leads at 15.78% of imports.
- Dependency Nature: Imports are machinery-heavy (HS 84, 87, 85), indicating critical technology dependency for Paraguay's industrial or infrastructure development.
Paraguay - Brazil Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Paraguay exports raw materials (fuels, cereals) to Brazil in exchange for high-value machinery and equipment.
- Value Chain Position: Brazil holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex manufactured goods, while Paraguay supplies commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Brazil to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 620.42M | 15.78% |
| 87 | 408.79M | 10.40% |
| 39 | 243.55M | 6.20% |
| 85 | 224.87M | 5.72% |
| 31 | 180.28M | 4.59% |
| 27 | 168.97M | 4.30% |
| 48 | 153.55M | 3.91% |
| 38 | 138.57M | 3.53% |
| 22 | 129.22M | 3.29% |
| 10 | 111.94M | 2.85% |
Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 1.06B | 35.16% |
| 10 | 647.10M | 21.47% |
| 85 | 229.65M | 7.62% |
| 02 | 169.17M | 5.61% |
| 12 | 101.56M | 3.37% |
| 38 | 87.17M | 2.89% |
| 63 | 70.31M | 2.33% |
| 61 | 64.14M | 2.13% |
| 39 | 59.08M | 1.96% |
| 76 | 57.89M | 1.92% |
Check Detailed Paraguay-Brazil Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Paraguay-Brazil Trade
The Paraguay-Brazil trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in 2024, with Paraguay’s export declines persisting due to weak commodity demand and Brazil’s structural dominance in high-value machinery trade. The trade deficit may widen further unless Paraguay diversifies its export basket or secures more favorable terms for raw material shipments. However, Brazil’s reliance on Paraguayan energy and agricultural inputs could stabilize trade if long-term supply agreements are negotiated. Traders should prepare for fluctuating monthly performance, particularly in key commodities like mineral fuels (HS 27) and cereals (HS 10).
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Energy Export Contracts: Paraguayan fuel and cereal exporters must secure multi-year supply deals with Brazilian buyers to mitigate price volatility and stabilize revenue streams.
- Diversify Import Sources: Paraguay should reduce over-reliance on Brazilian machinery (HS 84) by exploring alternative suppliers in Asia or Europe to improve trade balance leverage.
- Invest in Value-Add Processing: Instead of exporting raw commodities, Paraguay must prioritize domestic refining or processing for fuels and grains to capture higher margins before shipment to Brazil.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay - Brazil trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?
Paraguay's exports to Brazil totaled $3.01B in 2023, with consistent YoY declines, while imports from Brazil reached $3.93B, showing mixed growth.
What are the top exports from Paraguay to Brazil?
Paraguay's top exports to Brazil are Mineral fuels, oils (HS 27) and Cereals (HS 10), together accounting for 56.63% of total exports.
What does Paraguay import from Brazil?
Paraguay primarily imports Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery (HS 84) from Brazil, reflecting a dependency on high-value industrial equipment.
What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Brazil?
Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of $920M with Brazil in 2023, driven by higher imports and declining exports.
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