2025 Pakistan Mattresses Export: Market Shift

Pakistan Mattresses Export Key Takeaways

Mattresses, classified under HS Code 9404, face volatile demand and heavy buyer concentration from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Exports swung wildly, peaking at $25.44M in March before collapsing 26.6% by November—policy shifts and regional overcapacity drove instability.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Pakistan Mattresses Export reliance on the U.S. (59.61% of value) and a handful of key accounts (83.66% market control) creates extreme concentration risk.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 9404 trade data reveals 97.5% of volume is low-value bedding ($4.57/unit), with negligible high-margin mattress exports.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A Commodity Trap with No Easy Exit

Expert Commentary: Pakistan’s mattress sector is stuck in a race to the bottom—flooding the U.S. with cheap bedding while ignoring premium niches. The 2025 tariff policy may ease input costs, but without buyer or product diversification, this is a margin-crush waiting to happen.

Strategic Action Plan

• Diversify buyers immediately: The U.S. monopsony is unsustainable. Target U.A.E.’s retail-driven demand and Australia’s bulk orders to spread risk.
• Lock in raw material contracts: Preempt tariff-induced cost spikes by securing long-term supply deals now.
• Audit key account dependencies: Losing one major buyer could wipe out 20%+ of revenue. Identify backup clients in secondary markets.
• Pilot premium product lines: Test non-rubber mattresses ($20.03/unit) in the U.K. or Saudi Arabia to escape the $4.57/unit commodity trap.
• Monitor Indian export collapses: A -32% YoY drop in Indian polyfill signals regional price wars—adjust pricing strategies before getting undercut.

Pakistan's Mattress Exports Reveal Policy-Driven Volatility and Regional Pressure

Erratic Growth Amid Policy Shifts

Pakistan Mattresses Export trend under HS Code 9404 showed volatile performance throughout 2025, with total value swinging from a Q1 peak of $25.44M (March) to a November low of $14.92M—a net contraction of -26.6% from the cycle high. This erratic pattern, marked by sharp monthly swings exceeding ±25%, reflects underlying supply chain and policy adjustments rather than stable demand. The export volatility indicates structural friction in raw material access or competitive pressure, not organic market growth.

Policy Validation and Competitive Threats

The November slump effectively prefigured the National Tariff Policy 2025-30’s emphasis on eliminating anti-export bias, as producers likely faced rising input costs ahead of formal duty rationalization [Ministry of Commerce]. Meanwhile, India’s -32% YoY decline in quilt polyfill exports (April 2025) suggests regional overcapacity and price warfare, directly impacting hs code 9404 value stability across South Asia [Volza].

Strategic Advisory:

• Secure raw material contracts now to hedge against tariff-driven cost surges.
• Diversify buyers beyond traditional markets to mitigate regional competition spillover.
• Monitor Indian export data monthly for early warning on price dumping or trade barriers.

Table: Pakistan Mattresses Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Commodity Mattress Exports Dominated by Low-Value Bedding Articles

Market Structure: Overwhelming Volume Concentration

According to yTrade data, Pakistan’s export flow for HS Code 9404 from January through November 2025 is almost entirely driven by sub-code 94049000 (bedding and similar furnishing articles), which accounts for 97.5% of volume and 95% of value. This extreme top-heavy structure indicates a supply chain focused on high-volume, low-differentiation products, with negligible fragmentation across other mattress or sleep product categories.

Price Analysis: Bulk Commodity Trade with Minor Premium Niches

The unit price of $4.57/unit for the dominant sub-code confirms a commodity market, where competition is based on volume and cost efficiency rather than technical specialization. While minor niches exist—such as non-rubber mattresses (sub-code 94042900) at $20.03/unit—they represent less than 1.3% of total value. Pakistan’s export profile in this sector is clearly oriented toward mass-produced, low-margin bedding, not high-value mattress systems or sleep technology.

Table: Pakistan HS Code 9404) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 9404 Breakdown

Pakistan's Mattresses Exports Show High U.S. Dependence with Mixed Global Demand Signals

How Geographically Concentrated is Pakistan’s Mattresses Export Market?

• Pakistan’s mattresses exports are heavily concentrated, with the United States accounting for 59.61% of total export value from January through November 2025, indicating a high-risk monopsony.
• No re-imports or self-export patterns are present; all flows represent genuine foreign demand.
• The top three markets—U.S., U.K., and Australia—collectively represent over 78% of export value, underscoring significant exposure to a narrow buyer base.

Are Buyers Seeking Premium Quality or Bulk Quantities?

• The U.S. demonstrates premium demand, with a value share (59.61%) exceeding its quantity share (57.96%), reflecting higher unit prices and quality-conscious procurement.
• Markets like Australia and Saudi Arabia show commodity-driven import behavior, with quantity shares surpassing value shares, indicating bulk purchasing at lower margins.
• The U.A.E. stands out with high shipment frequency relative to volume (2.95% frequency vs. 0.92% quantity), signaling agile, retail-oriented or e-commerce logistics demand.

Table: Pakistan Mattresses (HS Code 9404) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Pakistan Mattresses (HS Code 9404) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Pakistan Mattresses Market Relies on a Handful of Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Pakistan Mattresses buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts. This segment, representing just 2.4% of buyers, controls 83.66% of the market's total value. The market structure reveals a hyper-concentrated supply chain, not a fragmented spot market. This dominance indicates long-term contractual relationships drive the export flow for HS Code 9404.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 9404 buyer trends signal extreme concentration risk; losing one Key Account could erase a significant revenue stream. Sellers must prioritize relationship management and secure multi-year contracts to mitigate this vulnerability. Pakistan's push for export-led growth under its new tariff policy [National Tariff Policy 2025-30] makes these partnerships even more critical for market access. Avoid diverting resources to low-value transactional buyers; focus on protecting and expanding key account share.

Table: Pakistan Mattresses (HS Code 9404) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Pakistan Mattresses Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Pakistan Mattresses Export in 2025?

Pakistan’s mattress exports in 2025 show volatile swings, with a 26.6% contraction from Q1 to November due to policy shifts and regional competition. The erratic performance reflects supply chain friction and raw material cost pressures, not stable demand growth.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Pakistan Mattresses (HS Code 9404) in 2025?

The U.S. dominates with 59.61% of export value, followed by the U.K. and Australia. These top three markets collectively account for over 78% of Pakistan’s mattress export revenue.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Pakistan Mattresses Export in 2025?

Price differences stem from product specialization: the U.S. pays premium rates for higher-value mattresses ($20.03/unit), while Australia and Saudi Arabia focus on bulk purchases of low-margin bedding ($4.57/unit).

Q4. What should exporters in Pakistan focus on in the current Mattresses export market?

Exporters must prioritize securing long-term contracts with key accounts (which control 83.66% of market value) and diversify beyond the U.S. to mitigate concentration risk. Raw material cost hedging is also critical.

Q5. What does this Pakistan Mattresses export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

U.S. buyers access premium products, while bulk purchasers (e.g., Australia) benefit from commodity pricing. However, all face supply chain volatility due to Pakistan’s policy adjustments and regional competition.

Q6. How is Mattresses typically used in this trade flow?

Pakistan primarily exports low-value bedding articles (97.5% of volume), catering to mass-market furnishing needs, with minimal high-end mattress systems or sleep technology products.