2025 Pakistan Oilseeds Export: Price Spike

Pakistan Oilseeds Export Key Takeaways

Oilseeds, classified under HS Code 1207, surged then corrected sharply from January to November 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Exports swung from $5.04M in July to $40.93M in October (+712%) before settling at $20.94M in November—a strategic flush ahead of policy changes.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Pakistan Oilseeds Export relies on a tight buyer oligopoly (24 firms control 80.4% of value) and China (44.7% of exports), leaving minimal room for spot-market disruption.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 1207 trade data confirms a bulk-commodity trap—98.2% of value comes from raw sesame seeds, with zero evidence of value-added processing or premium pricing.

This overview covers the period from January to November 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A Monoculture Market on Borrowed Time

Expert Commentary: Pakistan’s oilseeds sector is running a high-wire act: locked into bulk sesame contracts with China while ignoring diversification. The October export spike wasn’t demand—it was panic-selling before regulatory changes. Without a shift to processed oils or new buyers, the next price swing could collapse the entire trade.

Strategic Action Plan

• Diversify buyer portfolio: China’s 44.7% share is dangerous. Target Netherlands (high-margin) and Kazakhstan (bulk) to reduce reliance on a single market.
• Audit contract terms: The top 24 buyers control 80.4% of revenue. Renegotiate payment terms to hedge against default risks in a volatile commodity market.
• Pivot to value-add: Bulk sesame seeds are a race to the bottom. Partner with agro-processors to export oils, not raw seeds, and capture higher margins.
• Monitor China’s EHP renewals: HS 1207’s 5% tariff under the China-Pakistan FTA is critical. Any quota changes in Q1 2026 will dictate pricing power.
• Hedge logistics costs: November-January port congestion historically follows export rushes. Pre-book shipping to avoid delays that erode thin margins.

Pakistan's Oilseeds Export Surge Signals Strategic Market Repositioning

Q4 Volatility Masks Structural Shift

Pakistan's oilseeds export value under HS Code 1207 swung from a July low of $5.04M to a October peak of $40.93M—a 712% surge in four months—before correcting to $20.94M in November. This Pakistan Oilseeds Export trend reflects not seasonal noise but strategic inventory flushing ahead of policy clarity. The absence of weight data implies value-driven contracts, likely premium chia or specialty seeds, not bulk commodities.

Policy Catalyst and Forward Risks

The December 2025 Export Policy Order amendment (SRO 2486) validated the Q4 volatility, suggesting exporters accelerated shipments before new compliance burdens. [Ministry of Commerce] China-Pakistan FTA terms (5% tariff on HS 1207) remain critical, but regional competition intensifies. [ASEAN Briefing]

• Hedge November-January logistics: Port congestion historically follows year-end export rushes.
• Verify Chinese import quotas: HS code 1207 value hinges on China’s EHP status renewals in Q1 2026.
• Shift to value-added contracts: Bulk seed exports are yielding to processed oils; align with agro-processors.

Table: Pakistan Oilseeds Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Pakistan Oilseeds Data Latest Updates

Sesame Seeds Dominate Pakistan's Oilseed Export Monopoly

Market Composition Relies on a Single Commodity

According to yTrade data, Pakistan's HS Code 1207 export trade is almost entirely monopolized by a single product: sesamum seeds (HS 12074000), representing 98.2% of total value and 97.5% of volume. This extreme concentration indicates a top-heavy, undiversified supply chain that is critically dependent on one commodity. The remaining sub-codes—including castor, melon, and mustard seeds—are statistically irrelevant, collectively accounting for less than 2% of trade.

Bulk Commodity Trade with Minimal Value-Add

The absence of reported unit prices across all sub-codes, combined with the sheer volume of sesame shipments, confirms this is a classic bulk commodity market driven by tonnage, not specialization. Pakistan is exporting raw oilseeds in bulk, with no evidence of processed or premium-grade products commanding higher margins. The trade structure reveals a lack of sophistication: the country is moving weight, not value, leaving it exposed to global commodity price swings and competitive pressure from high-volume producers.

Table: Pakistan HS Code 1207) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 1207 Breakdown

Pakistan’s Oilseeds Exports Lean on a Narrow Set of Major Buyers

Is Pakistan’s Oilseeds Trade Overly Dependent on a Few Key Markets?

• Pakistan’s oilseeds exports from January through November 2025 are highly concentrated, with the top three destinations—China, South Korea, and Kazakhstan—accounting for 64.5% of total export value. China alone represents 44.7% of value, indicating significant but not monopolistic reliance. No self-export or re-import patterns were detected, confirming all flows represent genuine foreign demand.

Are Buyers Seeking Premium Quality or Bulk Volume?

• Key markets display divergent demand profiles: China and South Korea show premium signals with value shares exceeding quantity shares, suggesting unit prices above average and quality-conscious demand. In contrast, Kazakhstan’s low value-to-quantity ratio indicates price-sensitive bulk purchasing. The Netherlands stands out with a value share double its quantity share, pointing to high-margin niche demand. The export mix currently favors margin potential over pure volume scale.

Table: Pakistan Oilseeds (HS Code 1207) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Pakistan Oilseeds (HS Code 1207) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Pakistan's Oilseeds Market Runs on a Handful of Strategic Supply Contracts

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Pakistan Oilseeds buyers are defined by Key Accounts (High Value/High Frequency), which represent just two dozen firms but control 80.4% of the market's value. This segment, including major players like XINXING DEVELOPMENT and BAGAT AGRO, executed 1.7K transactions to move 112.81M units, revealing a market built on recurring, high-volume supply agreements rather than spot trading. The extreme concentration in both value (80.4%) and volume (82.17%) indicates a mature, contract-driven supply chain with significant reliance on a core group of partners.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 1207 buyer trends show a market where relationship management and contract security outweigh price shopping. Sellers must prioritize retaining these Key Accounts, as losing even one could collapse a significant revenue stream. The absence of recent disruptive policy changes for this code [Ministry of Commerce] means incumbents are protected, but new entrants will find it nearly impossible to break in through traditional sales. Strategy should focus on long-term contract innovation and value-added services to lock in these whales, as the transactional and occasional buyer segments are too fragmented to target profitably.

Table: Pakistan Oilseeds (HS Code 1207) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Pakistan Oilseeds Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Pakistan Oilseeds Export in 2025?

Pakistan's oilseeds exports surged 712% from July to October 2025 due to strategic inventory flushing ahead of new policy compliance burdens, followed by a correction. The volatility reflects a shift toward value-driven contracts, not seasonal fluctuations.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Pakistan Oilseeds (HS Code 1207) in 2025?

China, South Korea, and Kazakhstan dominate, accounting for 64.5% of export value. China alone represents 44.7%, indicating significant but not monopolistic reliance.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Pakistan Oilseeds Export in 2025?

China and South Korea pay premium prices for quality-conscious demand, while Kazakhstan buys bulk at lower margins. The Netherlands shows niche demand with high-margin potential.

Q4. What should exporters in Pakistan focus on in the current Oilseeds export market?

Exporters must prioritize retaining Key Accounts (80.4% of market value) through long-term contracts and value-added services, as spot trading is negligible. Diversifying beyond bulk sesame seeds is critical.

Q5. What does this Pakistan Oilseeds export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers in China and South Korea can expect stable, quality-focused supply, while bulk buyers like Kazakhstan face commodity price risks. The Netherlands offers niche opportunities for premium products.

Q6. How is Oilseeds typically used in this trade flow?

Pakistan primarily exports raw sesame seeds in bulk (98.2% of value), with minimal processing or value-add, indicating a commodity-driven trade focused on volume over specialization.