Mexico - United States Trade 2023 Q4: Cooling Momentum
Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - United States Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and United States shows cooling momentum in Q4 2023, with softening exports and collapsing imports.
- Mexico holds a $59.73B surplus with the U.S., exporting $121.16B (slowing YoY growth) while imports fell sharply to $61.43B.
- Mexico - United States trade statistics reveal deep supply chain integration: vehicles (26.4% of exports) and machinery (13.4% of imports) dominate, reflecting cross-border production networks.
- Strategic interdependence is high, with the U.S. supplying advanced tech and Mexico feeding finished autos into the North American market.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Mexico-United States Trade Trend in Q4 2023
Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to United States
- Total Volume: $121.16B in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth slowed sharply, from +5.43% in October to +0.61% in December, indicating weakening demand or base effects. No trade policy shifts were reported to explain this.
- Key Volatility: October saw the highest MoM growth (+5.57%), while November and December recorded consecutive declines (-2.12%, -1.73%).
Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from United States
- Total Volume: $61.43B in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY turned negative (-11.82% in December), reflecting a broad-based contraction. No supply shocks or policy changes were cited.
- Key Volatility: December posted the steepest MoM drop (-10.13%), with imports falling every month in the quarter.
Mexico - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Mexico held a $59.73B trade surplus with the U.S. in Q4 2023 (Exports: $121.16B, Imports: $61.43B).
- Relationship Status: Mexico remains a dominant net exporter, though softening export growth and collapsing imports suggest cooling bilateral trade momentum.
Mexico Import Trend from United States 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 22.32B | 0.68% | 2.06% |
| Nov | 20.60B | -7.73% | -2.67% |
| Dec | 18.51B | -10.13% | -11.82% |
| Total | 61.43B | - | - |
Mexico Export Trend to United States 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 41.20B | 5.57% | 5.43% |
| Nov | 40.33B | -2.12% | 3.26% |
| Dec | 39.63B | -1.73% | 0.61% |
| Total | 121.16B | - | - |
Get Historical Mexico United States Trade Records
Mexico-United States Top Trading Products in Q4 2023
Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to United States
- Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 26.41% of total exports to the U.S.
- Demand Driver: The U.S. consumer market absorbs Mexican-made vehicles, reflecting integrated auto supply chains.
- Concentration: The top 3 categories (HS 87, 85, 84) make up 61.13% of exports, indicating high reliance on manufacturing.
Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from United States
- Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports at 13.43%, followed by mineral fuels (HS 27) at 11.60%.
- Dependency Nature: High-tech machinery imports signal critical technology dependency, while mineral fuels point to energy security needs.
Mexico - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Deep Supply Chain Integration defines the trade, with both sides exchanging similar categories (e.g., HS 84, 85, 87). This reflects cross-border production networks, especially in autos and electronics.
- Value Chain Position: The U.S. holds a higher value-add position, exporting advanced machinery (HS 84) and tech (HS 85), while Mexico supplies finished vehicles (HS 87) and components.
Import Analysis by Product: United States to Mexico (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 8.25B | 13.43% |
| 27 | 7.13B | 11.60% |
| 85 | 6.48B | 10.55% |
| 87 | 6.39B | 10.41% |
| 99 | 6.23B | 10.15% |
| 39 | 4.74B | 7.71% |
| 90 | 2.05B | 3.33% |
| 38 | 1.65B | 2.68% |
| 72 | 1.50B | 2.45% |
| 10 | 1.50B | 2.44% |
Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to United States (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 32.00B | 26.41% |
| 85 | 22.54B | 18.60% |
| 84 | 19.53B | 16.12% |
| 99 | 10.95B | 9.04% |
| 90 | 6.76B | 5.58% |
| 94 | 3.13B | 2.58% |
| 22 | 2.39B | 1.98% |
| 39 | 2.30B | 1.90% |
| 07 | 2.29B | 1.89% |
| 73 | 1.80B | 1.48% |
Check Detailed Mexico-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
The Forecast
Mexico - United States trade is entering a period of consolidation, with softening export growth and collapsing imports signaling cooling momentum. The sharp slowdown in vehicle exports (HS 87) and broad-based import contraction suggest weakening demand and potential inventory adjustments in integrated supply chains. Expect flat to negative YoY growth in Q1 2024 unless U.S. consumer demand rebounds or Mexico diversifies its export basket. The trade surplus will persist but may narrow if import declines stabilize.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Categories: Reduce reliance on vehicles (HS 87) by expanding electronics (HS 85) and machinery (HS 84) exports to capitalize on U.S. industrial demand.
- Secure Energy Supply Chains: Lock in long-term contracts for mineral fuels (HS 27) to mitigate volatility in U.S. energy exports and stabilize input costs for Mexican manufacturers.
- Optimize Cross-Border Logistics: Accelerate nearshoring investments in border states to streamline JIT delivery for auto and electronics components, cutting lead times and costs.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Mexico - United States trade perform in 2023 Q4?
Mexico's exports to the U.S. grew modestly (+0.61% YoY in December) to $121.16B, while imports fell sharply (-11.82% YoY) to $61.43B, signaling cooling bilateral trade momentum.
What are the top exports from Mexico to United States?
Vehicles (HS 87) dominate Mexico's exports to the U.S. (26.41%), followed by machinery (HS 84) and electrical equipment (HS 85), collectively accounting for 61.13% of total exports.
What does Mexico import from United States?
Mexico primarily imports machinery (HS 84, 13.43%) and mineral fuels (HS 27, 11.60%) from the U.S., reflecting technology dependency and energy security needs.
What is the trade balance between Mexico and United States?
Mexico held a $59.73B trade surplus with the U.S. in Q4 2023, though the gap may narrow as export growth slows and imports contract sharply.
Mexico - United States Trade 2023 Q3: Strong Surplus
Mexico's $53.31B trade surplus with the U.S. in Q3 2023 highlights deep supply chain integration, with vehicles and mineral fuels leading Mexico United States trade trends. Data via yTrade.
Mexico - United States Trade 2024 Whole Year: $251B Surplus
Mexico's $251B trade surplus with the U.S. highlights deep supply chain ties, with vehicles and machinery driving Mexico United States trade trends. Data via yTrade.
