Mexico - United States Trade 2023 Q3: Strong Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - United States Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and United States shows volatility but maintains a strong surplus in Q3 2023.
- Economic Pulse: Mexico posted a $53.31B trade surplus with the U.S., exporting $118.25B (down -6.65% YoY in September) while importing $64.94B (consistent YoY declines).
- Exchange Structure: Mexico - United States trade statistics reveal deep supply chain integration, with vehicles (27.05% of exports) and mineral fuels (15.60% of imports) leading bilateral flows. Top 3 categories dominate 63.07% of exports.
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary economies, with Mexico exporting finished autos and the U.S. supplying high-value tech and energy inputs.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Mexico-United States Trade Trend in Q3 2023
Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to United States
- Total Volume: $118.25B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth turned negative (-6.65%) in September after positive gains in July (+6.24%) and August (+4.41%).
- Key Volatility: August saw a 10.31% MoM surge, while September dropped -6.07% MoM.
Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from United States
- Total Volume: $64.94B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Consistent YoY declines: -15.27% (July), -7.08% (August), -5.29% (September).
- Key Volatility: August imports spiked 16.98% MoM, but July and September saw contractions (-8.5% and -3.83% MoM).
Mexico - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade surplus of $53.31B (Exports $118.25B - Imports $64.94B).
- Relationship Status: Mexico maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports nearly double imports.
Mexico Import Trend from United States 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 19.71B | -8.5% | -15.27% |
| Aug | 23.05B | 16.98% | -7.08% |
| Sep | 22.17B | -3.83% | -5.29% |
| Total | 64.94B | - | - |
Mexico Export Trend to United States 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 37.67B | -8.4% | 6.24% |
| Aug | 41.55B | 10.31% | 4.41% |
| Sep | 39.03B | -6.07% | -6.65% |
| Total | 118.25B | - | - |
Get Historical Mexico United States Trade Records
Mexico-United States Top Trading Products in Q3 2023
Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to United States
- Top Commodity: HS Code 87 (Vehicles) dominates exports at 27.05% share.
- Demand Driver: Serves the U.S. consumer market and auto industry supply chains.
- Concentration: The top 3 categories (HS 87, 85, 84) account for 63.07% of exports, indicating high reliance on manufacturing goods.
Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from United States
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels) leads imports at 15.60% share.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security needs, supplemented by machinery (HS 84, 85) for industrial capacity.
Mexico - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Deep Supply Chain Integration, with overlapping HS codes (84, 85, 87, 90) in both lists. Trade is driven by cross-border production networks, especially in autos and electronics.
- Value Chain Position: The U.S. supplies higher-value tech (HS 84, 85, 90) while Mexico exports finished vehicles (HS 87), suggesting complementary but asymmetric value capture.
Import Analysis by Product: United States to Mexico (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 10.13B | 15.60% |
| 84 | 8.79B | 13.54% |
| 87 | 6.67B | 10.27% |
| 85 | 6.20B | 9.55% |
| 99 | 5.36B | 8.26% |
| 39 | 4.77B | 7.34% |
| 90 | 1.91B | 2.94% |
| 72 | 1.78B | 2.74% |
| 38 | 1.66B | 2.55% |
| 73 | 1.47B | 2.26% |
Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to United States (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 31.99B | 27.05% |
| 85 | 23.58B | 19.94% |
| 84 | 19.01B | 16.08% |
| 99 | 8.63B | 7.30% |
| 90 | 6.46B | 5.46% |
| 94 | 3.04B | 2.57% |
| 22 | 2.63B | 2.22% |
| 39 | 2.42B | 2.04% |
| 73 | 1.91B | 1.62% |
| 07 | 1.62B | 1.37% |
Check Detailed Mexico-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Mexico - United States trade is expected to face near-term volatility but maintain long-term resilience. The Q3 2023 contraction in exports (-6.65% YoY in September) signals softening U.S. demand, likely extending into Q4 as high interest rates weigh on auto purchases (HS 87). However, supply chain integration will cushion deeper declines, with recovery projected by mid-2024 as inventory cycles normalize. On imports, Mexico’s reduced U.S. energy purchases (HS 27, -15.27% YoY in July) may stabilize if fuel prices retreat, but machinery imports (HS 84, 85) will stay subdued amid slower industrial investment.
Strategic Moves
- Prioritize Auto Sector Agility: Vehicle exporters must shorten order-to-delivery cycles to counter U.S. demand swings, using nearshoring advantages to enable smaller, frequent shipments.
- Lock In Energy Contracts: Importers should secure fixed-price agreements for U.S. mineral fuels (HS 27) ahead of winter price spikes, leveraging Mexico’s trade surplus as negotiating leverage.
- Diversify Beyond Top 3 HS Codes: With 63.07% of exports concentrated in vehicles, machinery, and electronics, manufacturers must expand into adjacent categories (e.g., medical devices under HS 90) to reduce cyclical risks.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Mexico - United States trade perform in 2023 Q3?
Mexico exported $118.25B to the U.S. (mixed YoY growth) and imported $64.94B (consistent YoY declines), resulting in a trade surplus.
What are the top exports from Mexico to United States?
Vehicles (HS 87) dominate, followed by machinery (HS 84, 85), accounting for 63.07% of exports.
What does Mexico import from United States?
Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead imports, supplemented by industrial machinery (HS 84, 85) for manufacturing.
What is the trade balance between Mexico and United States?
Mexico holds a $53.31B surplus, with exports nearly double imports, reinforcing its net exporter role.
Mexico - United States Trade 2023 Q2: $56.09B Surplus
Mexico's $56.09B trade surplus with the U.S. in Q2 2023 highlights deep supply chain integration, with vehicles and machinery dominating Mexico United States trade trends. Data via yTrade.
Mexico - United States Trade 2023 Q4: Cooling Momentum
Mexico's trade surplus with the U.S. hits $59.73B as exports slow and imports collapse. Explore Mexico United States trade trends and top trading products like vehicles and machinery via yTrade data.
