2025 Mexico Petroleum oils (HS 2710) Export: Market Collapse

Key Takeaways

Petroleum oils, classified under HS Code 2710 (Petroleum oils from bituminous minerals (excl. crude); other oils; waste oil), exhibited high volatility from January to October 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged early, peaking at $1.49 billion in May, then collapsed by 60% to $377.42 million by October, reflecting severe seasonal or refinery-driven demand shifts.
• Structural Shift: The Mexico Petroleum oils Export market is dangerously concentrated, with the U.S. absorbing 57.17% of volume and a handful of Key Accounts driving 99.38% of trade value, exposing vulnerability to supply chain disruptions.
• Product Logic: HS Code 2710 trade data reveals a bulk-commodity market, with 86% of value tied to low-margin heavy oils ($0.42-0.45/kg), though Cuba’s premium demand (5.41 value-to-weight ratio) hints at niche opportunities.

This overview covers the period from January to October 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico Petroleum Oils (HS Code 2710) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

Analyzing the Mexico Petroleum oils Export trend from January to October 2025 reveals a pattern of initial strength followed by a steep decline. Exports surged in the first four months, with value peaking at $1.49 billion in May and weight hitting 3.12 billion kg in April, but both metrics collapsed by October to $377.42 million and 929.61 million kg, respectively, marking a 60% drop in value from the peak. Unit prices fluctuated, spiking 49% month-on-month to $0.61/kg in May before normalizing, indicating volatile pricing amid shifting volumes.

Drivers & Industry Context

The early 2025 strength was driven by robust U.S. demand, where premium pricing at $0.67/kg in May [ytrade.com] supported high value derived from HS Code 2710, despite Mexico's June 2025 automatic export notice policy exempting this code [HK Law]. The sharp October contraction likely reflects seasonal demand cycles or refinery output adjustments, as global oil markets faced pressure from rising LNG imports and price volatility (HK Law). This exemption ensured uninterrupted trade flows, but the hs code 2710 value remains tied to bulk-commodity dynamics and U.S. procurement patterns.

Table: Mexico Petroleum Oils Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Mexico HS Code 2710 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, Mexico's HS Code 2710 export market is overwhelmingly dominated by heavy petroleum oils, specifically the 'not light oils and preparations' category. The top three sub-codes, 27101999, 271019, and 2710199905, collectively account for over 86% of the total export value from January to October 2025. The remaining sub-codes, including a small segment of light oils, represent a minor fraction of the total trade volume for this Mexico HS Code 2710 export profile.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The market structure is defined by its commodity nature, with a narrow band of low unit prices clustering around $0.42-0.45 per kilogram. This HS Code 2710 breakdown reveals a price-sensitive bulk market, not a quality-specialized one, where cost efficiency and volume logistics are the primary drivers. The trade structure is typical of a raw material export, with competition based on scale and marginal price advantages rather than product differentiation.

Table: Mexico HS Code 2710) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 2710 Breakdown

Mexico Petroleum Oils Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Mexico's Petroleum oils export destinations show extreme concentration, with the United States dominating at 57.17% of total export value from January to October 2025. Surprisingly, Mexico itself is the second-largest destination with 31.22% of value, which must be classified as re-importation driven by round-tripping in bonded zones or returned inventory, not final consumption. This heavy reliance on the US market introduces significant stability risks due to geopolitical or economic shifts.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The US market displays nearly equal value and weight ratios, indicating balanced bulk purchasing for industrial use without strong premium signals. In contrast, Cuba's value ratio sharply exceeds its weight ratio (5.41 vs. 2.03), revealing quality-conscious demand for higher-value specifications and margin potential. Several Latin American partners like Colombia show frequency ratios vastly outweighing weight ratios (13.93 vs. 0.68), signaling fragmented, high-frequency demand akin to retail or JIT replenishment rather than volume scale.

Table: Mexico Petroleum Oils (HS Code 2710) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Mexico Petroleum Oils (HS Code 2710) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Mexico Petroleum Oils Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Mexico Petroleum oils buyers are overwhelmingly dominated by a core group of Key Accounts. These High-Volume Repeaters generated 99.38% of the total export value from January to October 2025, despite accounting for only 75% of all transactions. This extreme concentration reveals a market built on stable, long-term supply chain contracts rather than spot trading, with companies like KLUBER LUBRICATION NA LP acting as the primary anchors for trade flows.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The dominance of these Key Accounts means sales strategy must prioritize relationship management and supply chain reliability over customer acquisition. However, this concentration creates significant risk; losing even one major client could severely impact export volumes. Sellers must also prepare for new compliance demands, as Mexico will require an automatic export notice for certain goods starting in August 2025 [HKLaw], adding a layer of regulatory focus for maintaining these crucial partnerships.

Table: Mexico Petroleum Oils (HS Code 2710) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Mexico Petroleum Oils Buyers list

Action Plan for Petroleum Oils Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify Buyers: Target Cuba and Colombia to mitigate reliance on U.S. and Mexico’s re-importation, leveraging their fragmented, high-frequency demand for margin stability.
• Lock In Contracts: Secure long-term agreements with Key Accounts like KLUBER LUBRICATION NA LP to offset volume volatility, prioritizing supply chain reliability over spot sales.
• Optimize Logistics: Reduce per-unit costs for bulk heavy oils (27101999 sub-code) by negotiating freight rates or consolidating shipments to protect thin margins.
• Monitor Compliance: Track Mexico’s August 2025 automatic export notice policy, though HS Code 2710 is exempt, to preempt regulatory shifts for ancillary products.
• Hedge Prices: Use financial instruments to buffer against oil price swings, especially after May’s 49% monthly spike to $0.61/kg.

Take Action Now —— Explore Mexico Petroleum oils HS Code 2710 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Mexico Petroleum oils Export in 2025?

The early 2025 surge was driven by strong U.S. demand and premium pricing, but exports collapsed by 60% by October due to seasonal cycles or refinery adjustments amid global oil market volatility.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Mexico Petroleum oils (HS Code 2710) in 2025?

The U.S. dominates with 57.17% of export value, followed by Mexico (31.22%, likely re-imports) and Cuba, which shows higher-value demand.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Mexico Petroleum oils Export in 2025?

Prices reflect bulk commodity dynamics ($0.42–0.45/kg for the U.S.) versus Cuba’s premium demand, where value ratios sharply exceed weight.

Q4. What should exporters in Mexico focus on in the current Petroleum oils export market?

Prioritize relationship management with key accounts (99.38% of value) and prepare for Mexico’s 2025 export notice requirements, while diversifying to mitigate U.S. reliance.

Q5. What does this Mexico Petroleum oils export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

U.S. buyers benefit from stable bulk supply, while Cuban and Latin American buyers face fragmented, high-frequency demand with margin potential for specialized grades.

Q6. How is Petroleum oils typically used in this trade flow?

Heavy petroleum oils (86% of exports) serve industrial bulk applications, with light oils as a minor segment for niche uses.

Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report

Mexico HS Code 2710 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN

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