Mexico - Germany Trade 2024 Q4: Widening Deficit

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Germany Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Germany remains heavily skewed in Germany's favor, with Mexico's trade deficit widening in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico posted a $3.16B trade deficit with Germany ($4.92B imports vs. $1.76B exports), as demand for German goods outpaced Mexico's volatile export growth.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Germany trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech imbalance—Mexico’s top export (HS 99, 58.9% share) is ambiguous/unclassified, while it relies on German machinery (HS 84, 23.9%) and vehicles (HS 87, 16.8%).
• Strategic Interdependence: Germany holds the higher value-add position, supplying critical industrial inputs, while Mexico’s export profile lacks diversification.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Germany Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Germany

• Total Volume: $1.76B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings were volatile: +36.73% in October, -31.66% in November, and +30.21% in December. No clear directional trend.
  • No relevant trade news to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: December saw a sharp -20.43% MoM drop, the steepest monthly decline.

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Germany

• Total Volume: $4.92B in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines: -8.23% (Oct), -10.64% (Nov), -4.38% (Dec). Demand for German goods weakened throughout the quarter.
• Key Volatility: November recorded the lowest monthly value ($1.59B) and steepest MoM drop (-9.52%).

Mexico - Germany Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $3.16B (Imports $4.92B > Exports $1.76B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily dependent on German imports, with exports failing to offset the gap. The deficit widened compared to Q4 2023.

Mexico Import Trend from Germany 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Germany 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Germany Trade Records

Mexico-Germany Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Germany

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (58.90% share). This is likely unclassified or special category goods, indicating a dominant but ambiguous export.
• Demand Driver: Germany may be sourcing these for industrial processing or re-export, given their high share.
• Concentration: Extreme—HS Code 99 alone accounts for nearly 60% of exports, signaling heavy reliance on this category.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Germany

• Top Commodity: HS Code 84 (23.91% share), machinery (e.g., nuclear reactors, boilers).
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency—machinery and vehicles (HS 87, 16.82%) dominate, reflecting Mexico’s need for German industrial equipment.

Mexico - Germany Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports ambiguous/unclassified goods (HS 99) while importing high-value machinery and tech (HS 84, 85, 90).
• Value Chain Position: Germany holds the higher value-add position—its exports (machinery, vehicles) are more complex than Mexico’s top export (HS 99). Trade is lopsided, with Mexico dependent on German industrial inputs.

Import Analysis by Product: Germany to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Germany (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Germany Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Germany Trade

The Mexico-Germany trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Mexico’s export performance showing erratic swings and its import demand for German goods continuing to soften. The persistent trade deficit ($3.16B in Q4) signals structural imbalances, as Mexico’s reliance on unclassified exports (HS 99) lacks diversification, while German machinery and tech imports remain critical but costly. Without intervention, the deficit may widen further, especially if German industrial demand weakens. Traders should brace for uneven growth, with potential downside risks in Q1 2025.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Composition: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on HS 99 by identifying and scaling secondary high-value categories (e.g., automotive parts, aerospace) to stabilize revenue streams.
• Lock in German Tech Supply Chains: Importers should negotiate long-term contracts for critical machinery (HS 84) to hedge against price volatility and ensure stable access to industrial inputs.
• Accelerate Trade Deficit Mitigation: Mexican policymakers must incentivize export promotion programs and explore alternative tech suppliers (e.g., South Korea, Japan) to reduce over-reliance on German imports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Germany trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Mexico exported $1.76B to Germany, with volatile YoY growth, while imports from Germany totaled $4.92B, showing consistent YoY declines. The trade deficit widened to $3.16B.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Germany?

HS Code 99 (unclassified/special category goods) dominated Mexico’s exports to Germany, accounting for 58.90% of total shipments.

What does Mexico import from Germany?

Machinery (HS Code 84, 23.91%) and vehicles (HS Code 87, 16.82%) were the top imports, reflecting Mexico’s reliance on German industrial technology.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Germany?

Mexico had a trade deficit of $3.16B with Germany in Q4 2024, as imports ($4.92B) far exceeded exports ($1.76B). The gap widened compared to Q4 2023.