Mexico - Germany Trade 2024 Q3: Cooling Trade Dynamics

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Germany Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Germany shows cooling dynamics in Q3 2024, with declining exports and imports signaling reduced trade intensity.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico runs a $3.39B trade deficit with Germany ($5.38B imports vs. $1.99B exports), as both flows contract YoY.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Germany trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech model—Mexico ships vehicles (39% of exports) while importing German machinery (21% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Complementary but uneven: Germany holds the high-value tech edge, while Mexico supplies auto-sector inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Germany Trade Trend in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Germany

• Total Volume: $1.99B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines in August (-41.45%) and September (-32.13%) offset July’s 14.73% growth, signaling weakening demand or competitive shifts.
  • No specific trade news to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: August saw a sharp MoM drop (-47.96%), followed by a partial recovery in September (+12.78%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Germany

• Total Volume: $5.38B in Q3 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Consistent YoY declines in August (-10.61%) and September (-5.14%) despite July’s 9.56% rise, suggesting reduced reliance on German imports.
• Key Volatility: July was the peak month (16.4% MoM growth), but August and September saw consecutive declines (-8.96%, -9.76% MoM).

Mexico - Germany Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $3.39B (Imports $5.38B > Exports $1.99B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico remains heavily dependent on German imports, though the YoY contraction in both flows hints at cooling bilateral trade.

Mexico Import Trend from Germany 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Germany 2024 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Germany Trade Records

Mexico-Germany Top Trading Products in Q3 2024

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Germany

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports to Germany, accounting for 39.27% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Germany imports Mexican vehicles to serve its consumer market and industrial supply chains.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with vehicles and other transport equipment (HS 99) jointly making up 77.3% of exports.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Germany

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports from Germany, representing 20.61% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Mexico relies on German machinery and high-tech goods (HS 84, 85, 90) for industrial and technological needs.

Mexico - Germany Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports vehicles and transport equipment, while Germany supplies machinery and advanced technology.
• Value Chain Position: Germany holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex machinery and electronics, while Mexico focuses on vehicle assembly and intermediate goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Germany to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Germany (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Germany Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Mexico-Germany Trade

The Mexico-Germany trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in the near term, with weakening demand and competitive pressures dampening growth. The sharp YoY declines in Mexico’s exports to Germany, coupled with reduced reliance on German imports, suggest a cooling phase in bilateral trade. However, the structural complementarity—Mexico’s vehicle exports and Germany’s machinery supply—provides a foundation for stabilization if demand rebounds. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with potential upside if industrial demand in Germany recovers.

Strategic Moves for Traders

• Diversify Export Markets: Mexican exporters must reduce dependence on Germany by targeting other EU markets for vehicles and transport equipment, mitigating risks from fluctuating demand.
• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Importers of German machinery should secure fixed-price agreements to hedge against potential cost volatility and supply chain disruptions.
• Invest in Value-Add Production: Mexican manufacturers should prioritize upgrading technology and localizing high-value components to reduce reliance on German imports and improve trade balance.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Germany trade perform in 2024 Q3?

Mexico's exports to Germany totaled $1.99B, with YoY declines in August and September. Imports from Germany reached $5.38B, also showing YoY contractions, signaling cooling bilateral trade.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Germany?

Vehicles (HS 87) dominate Mexico's exports to Germany, accounting for 39.27% of total exports, followed by other transport equipment (HS 99), jointly making up 77.3%.

What does Mexico import from Germany?

Machinery (HS 84) leads Mexico's imports from Germany at 20.61%, alongside high-tech goods (HS 85, 90), reflecting reliance on German industrial and technological products.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Germany?

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $3.39B with Germany in Q3 2024, as imports ($5.38B) exceeded exports ($1.99B), though both flows showed YoY declines.