Mexico - Canada Trade 2023 Q3: Surplus & Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Canada Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Canada shows sustained growth with Mexico maintaining a clear net exporter role in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico posted a $1.18B trade surplus with Canada ($4.52B exports vs. $3.34B imports), driven by strong YoY export growth (up 12-28% monthly).
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Canada trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Mexico’s exports are dominated by high-value unspecified goods (HS 99, 39.8% share), while Canada supplies machinery (HS 84, 85) and raw materials (HS 38).
• Strategic Interdependence: Heavy concentration in top export categories (70% from HS 99 and 87) highlights Mexico’s reliance on a narrow product range, while Canada’s diversified inputs signal deeper supply chain integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Canada Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Canada

• Total Volume: $4.52B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth remained strong across all months (Jul: +27.69%, Aug: +12.72%, Sep: +12.6%), indicating sustained demand. No specific news drivers were reported.
• Key Volatility: August saw the highest MoM surge (+11.72%), while September experienced a sharp MoM drop (-13.85%).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Canada

• Total Volume: $3.34B in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was steady but slower than exports (Jul: +2.37%, Aug: +5.22%, Sep: +4.62%). No news context provided to explain trends.
• Key Volatility: August posted the highest MoM jump (+12.76%), while September declined MoM (-6.06%).

Mexico - Canada Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico held a trade surplus of $1.18B (Exports: $4.52B > Imports: $3.34B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico maintains a clear net exporter role, with exports outpacing imports by 35% in Q3.

Mexico Import Trend from Canada 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Canada 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Canada Trade Records

Mexico-Canada Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Canada

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates with 39.83% share.
• Demand Driver: Canada likely imports these for industrial processing or re-export, given the high value and broad category.
• Concentration: The top two categories (HS 99 and 87) account for 70.37% of exports, indicating heavy reliance on a narrow product range.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Canada

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads at 26.35% share.
• Dependency Nature: The mix of industrial inputs (HS 87, 84, 85) and raw materials (HS 38, 02) suggests Mexico relies on Canada for critical manufacturing components and agricultural products.

Mexico - Canada Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Mexico exports high-value unspecified goods (likely re-exports or industrial outputs) while importing machinery (HS 84, 85) and raw materials (HS 38) from Canada.
• Value Chain Position: Canada holds a higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85) and chemicals (HS 38), while Mexico’s exports are less specialized (dominated by HS 99).

Import Analysis by Product: Canada to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Canada (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Canada Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade surplus with Canada is expected to widen in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for high-value unspecified goods (HS 99) and industrial outputs. However, the heavy reliance on a narrow export basket (top two categories accounting for 70.37% of shipments) exposes Mexico to volatility, as seen in September’s sharp MoM drop. Canada’s steady but slower import growth suggests a need for Mexico to diversify its export mix to maintain momentum. The resource-for-tech complementarity will likely deepen, but Mexico must address its lower value-add position to secure long-term gains.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Portfolio: Mexican exporters should reduce reliance on HS 99 by expanding into higher-value machinery (HS 84, 85) or processed goods, leveraging Canada’s demand for industrial inputs.
• Lock in Supply Chains: Importers of Canadian machinery and raw materials (HS 84, 85, 38) should secure long-term contracts to hedge against potential price fluctuations and supply disruptions.
• Optimize Trade Logistics: Given the MoM volatility in August and September, traders must adopt agile inventory management and streamline cross-border logistics to mitigate seasonal swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Canada trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Mexico's exports to Canada grew strongly YoY (+27.69% in July, +12.72% in August, +12.6% in September), totaling $4.52B, while imports rose modestly (+2.37% to +5.22%) to $3.34B.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Canada?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominated Mexico's exports to Canada at 39.83%, followed by HS Code 87, together accounting for 70.37% of total exports.

What does Mexico import from Canada?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) led Mexico's imports from Canada (26.35%), alongside machinery (HS 84, 85) and raw materials (HS 38, 02).

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Canada?

Mexico held a $1.18B trade surplus with Canada in Q3 2023, with exports exceeding imports by 35%.