Mexico - Canada Trade 2023 Q2: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Mexico - Canada Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Mexico and Canada showed mixed growth with synchronized volatility in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Mexico held a $0.95B trade surplus ($4.29B exports vs. $3.34B imports), though both sides saw sharp monthly swings—May spikes offsetting April/June declines.
• Exchange Structure: Mexico - Canada trade statistics reveal heavy reliance on unspecified goods (HS 99) (33% of exports, 25% of imports), with Mexico also exporting vehicles (HS 87) and importing machinery (HS 84, 85) and industrial inputs.
• Strategic Interdependence: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity defines the partnership—Canada supplies high-value machinery, while Mexico’s exports skew toward processed goods and vehicles.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Mexico-Canada Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Mexico Export Performance: Shipments to Canada

• Total Volume: $4.29B in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was mixed, with May (+30.06%) offsetting declines in April (-9.94%) and June (-1.67%). No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: May saw a sharp MoM surge (+43.84%), while April and June posted double-digit MoM drops (-25.97% and -20.79%, respectively).

Mexico Import Performance: Sourcing from Canada

• Total Volume: $3.34B in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY trends mirrored exports: May (+19.74%) countered April (-8.55%) and June (-10.17%) declines. No relevant news to contextualize shifts.
• Key Volatility: May’s MoM spike (+21.87%) contrasted with April (-12.16%) and June (-13.52%) pullbacks.

Mexico - Canada Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Mexico held a trade surplus of $0.95B (Exports: $4.29B > Imports: $3.34B).
• Relationship Status: Mexico maintains a net exporter role, though both sides saw synchronized volatility in May.

Mexico Import Trend from Canada 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Mexico Export Trend to Canada 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Mexico Canada Trade Records

Mexico-Canada Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Mexico Export Profile: What Does Mexico Sell to Canada

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates at 33.41% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Canada likely imports these goods for industrial processing or consumer market needs, given the high-value, unspecified nature.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 99, 87, 84) account for 80.63% of total exports, indicating heavy reliance on a few categories.

Mexico Import Profile: What Does Mexico Buy from Canada

• Top Commodity: HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads at 25.45% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Imports suggest critical technology dependency (HS 84, 85) and industrial input needs (HS 38, 39).

Mexico - Canada Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Mexico exports high-value unspecified goods (HS 99) and vehicles (HS 87), while importing machinery (HS 84, 85) and industrial inputs (HS 38).
• Value Chain Position: Canada holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 85) versus Mexico’s mixed export profile.

Import Analysis by Product: Canada to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Mexico to Canada (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Mexico-Canada Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Mexico’s trade with Canada is expected to remain volatile in the near term, with growth hinging on stabilizing demand for high-value unspecified goods (HS 99) and industrial inputs. The synchronized YoY swings in Q2 2023 suggest underlying supply chain sensitivity, likely tied to Canada’s industrial cycles. However, Mexico’s trade surplus position provides a buffer; exporters should anticipate uneven demand but maintain capacity to capitalize on spikes like May’s 43.84% MoM surge. Long-term, the resource-for-tech complementarity will drive deeper integration, but short-term turbulence calls for tactical adjustments.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Contracts for HS 99 Exports: Given the dominance of unspecified goods (33.41% of exports), Mexican exporters should secure long-term agreements with Canadian buyers to mitigate volatility and stabilize revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Tech (HS 84, 85): Reduce dependency on Canadian machinery by exploring alternative suppliers in the US or Asia to hedge against supply chain disruptions.
• Optimize Inventory for Seasonal Swings: Traders must adopt dynamic inventory management to align with Canada’s cyclical demand patterns, avoiding overstocking during expected downturns (e.g., April/June).

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Mexico - Canada trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Mexico exported $4.29B and imported $3.34B, with mixed YoY growth—May surges offset declines in April and June.

What are the top exports from Mexico to Canada?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) dominates (33.41%), followed by HS 87 and 84, accounting for 80.63% of total exports.

What does Mexico import from Canada?

HS Code 99 (Unspecified goods) leads (25.45%), with machinery (HS 84, 85) and industrial inputs (HS 38, 39) as key dependencies.

What is the trade balance between Mexico and Canada?

Mexico held a trade surplus of $0.95B, maintaining its net exporter role despite synchronized volatility in May.