2025 Kazakhstan Zinc Export: Volatile Swings

Kazakhstan Zinc Export Key Takeaways

Zinc, classified under HS Code 7901 (unwrought, 99.99%+ purity), experienced extreme volatility and strategic pre-positioning from January to December 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Volatile swings—61.96% value surge in April followed by a 66.23% collapse by December—reflect preemptive drawdowns ahead of policy tightening, not demand erosion.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Kazakhstan’s zinc export market is a Chinese monopsony (85% share), with Glencore and China Chengtong locking 95.6% of value via long-term contracts.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 7901 trade data shows 99.97% of value tied to ultra-pure unwrought zinc, confirming a bulk-commodity play with zero value-add diversification.

This overview covers the period from January to December 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: The Illusion of Stability in a Contract-Locked Monoculture

Expert Commentary: Kazakhstan’s zinc trade is a high-wire act—long-term contracts mask underlying fragility. The April 2025 export spike wasn’t organic demand; it was supply chains front-running Astana’s regulatory noose. China’s dominance isn’t a strength—it’s a single point of failure.

Strategic Action Plan

• Hedge Q1 2026 shipments: Anticipate logistics friction from Kazakhstan’s mandatory National Electronic Trading Platform rollout.
• Diversify sourcing: Secure Peruvian or Australian zinc as a counterweight to Kazakh policy volatility.
• Audit contract terms: Renegotiate key account agreements (Glencore/Chengtong) to include force majeure clauses for export bans.
• Monitor bonded warehouses: Track Chinese inventory builds for early signals of Astana’s 2026 licensing behavior.
• Abandon alloy fantasies: Reallocate resources from marginal sub-codes (0.03% value share); double down on 99.99% purity production.

Kazakhstan's Zinc Export Strategy: Preemptive Drawdowns Before Policy Reset

Volatility Defines 2025 Export Performance

• The "What" with Forensic Depth: Kazakhstan's zinc exports under HS Code 7901 opened 2025 with a 61.96% value surge to $630.92M in April, before collapsing 66.23% to $183.77M by December. Weight followed a similar arc, peaking at 223.25M kg in April before falling 65.92% to 62.88M kg by year-end. The Kazakhstan Zinc Export trend exhibited high volatility, with Q4 volumes failing to sustain a November rebound.
• The Expert Verdict: This erosion reflects strategic inventory management ahead of policy tightening, not weakening demand. Kazakhstan retains pricing power as China’s top zinc supplier (39% share), but the data signals a supply chain bracing for intervention.

Policy Alignment and Forward Risks

• The "Why" & Hindsight: The mid-year export slump and December crash align with Astana’s broader push to restrict raw non-ferrous exports and boost domestic processing. While zinc (HS 7901) escaped the explicit ban applied to copper and aluminum, the collapse in hs code 7901 value anticipates tighter 2026 rules, including mandatory use of the National Electronic Trading Platform. This was a preemptive supply chain adjustment, not a market failure.
• Strategic Advisory:
• Monitor Chinese bonded warehouse inventories for early signals of Astana’s 2026 export licensing behavior.
• Hedge Q1 2026 shipments against logistics friction from Kazakhstan’s new trade platform rollout.
• Diversify sourcing to include Peruvian or Australian zinc to offset potential Kazakh supply volatility.

[Argus Media], [AIFC]

Table: Kazakhstan Zinc Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Zinc Data Latest Updates

99.99% Pure Zinc Dominates Kazakhstan's Export Structure

Extreme Concentration in High-Purity Commodity

According to yTrade data, sub-code 7901110000 (zinc unwrought with 99.99%+ purity) accounts for 99.97% of total export value and 89.95% of volume from January through December 2025. This extreme concentration reveals a top-heavy market where Kazakhstan's zinc export supply chain is overwhelmingly dedicated to producing and shipping premium-grade base metal. The remaining sub-codes for alloys and lower purity zinc are commercially irrelevant, representing less than 0.03% of total value.

Consistent Pricing Indicates Commodity-Driven Market

The unit price across all zinc sub-codes clusters tightly around $2.70/kg, confirming this is a commodity market where volume, not specialization, drives value. The breakdown shows Kazakhstan is exporting raw, high-purity bulk zinc rather than value-added products. This flow is fundamentally about moving metric tons of premium smelter output—not manufacturing specialized alloys or finished goods. The market operates on weight and purity, not technical specifications.

Table: Kazakhstan HS Code 7901) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 7901 Breakdown

Kazakhstan’s Zinc Exports Dominated by Chinese Monopsony

How Concentrated Is Kazakhstan’s Zinc Trade?

Kazakhstan’s zinc export market is critically concentrated, with China accounting for 85% of all export value from January through December 2025. This represents a high-risk market monopsony, leaving Kazakhstan vulnerable to demand shifts or policy changes from a single buyer. Exports to Turkey and Vietnam, though smaller, offer some geographic diversification but remain secondary in scale.

Who Buys Kazakh Zinc and Why?

Buyers demonstrate commodity-driven demand, with value shares closely tracking weight shares—China’s 85.23% value versus 85.48% weight confirms bulk industrial consumption. Turkey and Vietnam show even lower value-to-weight ratios, indicating price-sensitive stockpiling or processing. The current export structure emphasizes volume scale over margin potential, with unit prices remaining consistent across major partners.

Table: Kazakhstan Zinc (HS Code 7901) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Zinc (HS Code 7901) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Kazakhstan's Zinc Market: Dominated by Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

Kazakhstan’s zinc export buyers are overwhelmingly concentrated within Key Accounts—high-value, high-frequency purchasers representing 95.6% of total export value and 91.6% of transaction frequency. This reflects a mature, contract-driven supply chain anchored by major traders like Glencore and China Chengtong. The extreme consolidation—just two buyers drive nearly all volume—signals a stable but high-risk dependency on long-term agreements.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

Sellers must prioritize relationship management with existing key accounts, as the market lacks diversification. The dominance of structured contracts reduces opportunities for spot traders or new entrants. Regulatory pressures loom: Kazakhstan’s temporary ban on non-ferrous metal exports until December 2025—though not explicitly targeting zinc—underscores policy risks for raw material shipments. Avoid diverting resources toward low-value segments; instead, secure contract renewals and monitor policy shifts.

Table: Kazakhstan Zinc (HS Code 7901) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Kazakhstan Zinc Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Kazakhstan Zinc Export in 2025?

The 2025 volatility reflects strategic inventory drawdowns ahead of anticipated policy tightening, not weakening demand. Export values collapsed 66.23% by December as suppliers adjusted to Kazakhstan’s broader push to restrict raw non-ferrous metal exports.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Kazakhstan Zinc (HS Code 7901) in 2025?

China dominates with 85% of export value, while Turkey and Vietnam account for minor shares. This extreme concentration creates a high-risk monopsony dependency.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Kazakhstan Zinc Export in 2025?

Prices cluster tightly around $2.70/kg globally because Kazakhstan exports almost exclusively 99.99%+ pure zinc (HS 7901110000), a standardized commodity where purity and weight dictate value.

Q4. What should exporters in Kazakhstan focus on in the current Zinc export market?

Exporters must prioritize contract renewals with key accounts like Glencore and China Chengtong, which drive 95.6% of value, while monitoring policy risks such as potential 2026 export licensing changes.

Q5. What does this Kazakhstan Zinc export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Chinese buyers benefit from stable bulk supply but face systemic risk if Kazakh policies disrupt flows. Secondary markets like Turkey and Vietnam lack leverage to negotiate pricing outside commodity benchmarks.

Q6. How is Zinc typically used in this trade flow?

Kazakhstan’s 99.99% pure zinc is primarily consumed in bulk industrial applications, such as galvanizing or alloy production, rather than specialized manufacturing due to its commodity-grade nature.