2025 Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export: Volume Drop

Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export Key Takeaways

Crude Oil, classified under HS Code 2709, faced a dramatic policy-driven contraction from January to December 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Exports collapsed by 88% in December 2025 after months of stability, directly tied to Kazakhstan’s extended ban on petroleum product exports.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export flows remain locked into high-volume, low-margin contracts with European buyers (Italy, Netherlands), leaving minimal diversification options.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 2709 trade data confirms a pure bulk commodity play—98.9% of exports fall under two sub-codes with unit prices under $0.53/kg, signaling zero value-tiering.

This overview covers the period from January to December 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: Policy Over Profit—Kazakhstan’s Fuel Security Gamble

Expert Commentary: Astana is sacrificing export revenue to shore up domestic fuel supplies, a move that stabilizes local markets but cedes global market share. The abrupt drop in crude shipments isn’t a demand issue—it’s a deliberate chokehold by policymakers prioritizing energy sovereignty over trade income.

Strategic Action Plan

• Lock in long-term contracts: With 94% of export value tied to Key Accounts, renegotiate multi-year deals now before domestic policy further restricts volumes.
• Diversify transport routes: Maritime channels are stable, but rail and road bottlenecks will worsen as pipelines redirect crude to Kazakh refineries. Pre-book Q1 2026 freight capacity.
• Monitor refinery outputs: Any surplus in domestic processing could trigger temporary export waivers—position to capitalize on short-term volume spikes.
• Shift sourcing to alternate suppliers: Compensate for Kazakh shortages by securing Russian or Azerbaijani crude for Mediterranean and Asian buyers.
• Ignore niche buyers: Smaller accounts represent just 2.8% of value—focus resources on retaining ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies as anchor clients.

Kazakhstan's Crude Export Strategy Faces Structural Pressure from Domestic Fuel Bans

Policy-Driven Export Contraction

• Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports under HS code 2709 saw total value reach $13.8B in January 2025, with volume at 23.7B kg, but collapsed in December to $1.6B value and 3.5B kg volume—an 88% drop. The Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export trend was stable through November 2025, then fell abruptly as refining and logistics constraints bit. This reflects a strategic reorientation toward retaining feedstocks for domestic refining amid product export bans, not weakening global demand.

Policy Triggers and Market Implications

• The December 2025 crash aligns precisely with the Ministry of Energy’s November 12 announcement extending the ban on petroleum exports (including derivatives of hs code 2709 value) until May 2026. This policy—active since 2021 and widened in scope in 2025—forced a diversion of crude from export channels to domestic refineries, prioritizing fuel security over export revenue. The data anticipates this squeeze: stable volumes through mid-year were likely clearing inventories before the ban tightened.

Strategic Advisory:

• Monitor Kazakh refinery output and storage reports—any surplus may trigger temporary export waivers.
• Shift attention to Russian or Azerbaijani crude flows to compensate for reduced Kazakh availability in Mediterranean and Asian markets.
• Secure Q1 2026 freight capacity early; rail and road bottlenecks will intensify as pipelines redirect inland.

Table: Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Crude Oil Data Latest Updates

Crude Oil Exports Dominated by High-Volume, Low-Margin Bulk Trades

Market Concentration in Two Bulk Codes

• Insight-First Summary: Two sub-codes, 2709009009 and 2709009003, account for 98.9% of total export value and 98.9% of volume.
• Citation: According to yTrade data, Kazakhstan’s HS Code 2709 export structure is extremely top-heavy, with virtually all activity concentrated in two high-volume, low-unit-price crude oil classifications.
• Analysis: This extreme concentration indicates a supply chain optimized for bulk commodity export, not diversification. The market is structurally vulnerable to price shocks and lacks value-tiering.
• Constraint: Fragmentation is nonexistent; minor codes represent statistical noise, not meaningful alternative streams.

Commodity Pricing Confirms Bulk Export Strategy

• Value Chain Verdict: Unit prices range from $0.40–0.53/kg, confirming this is a pure commodity market driven by volume, not specialization.
• Strategic Insight: The entire export breakdown is raw, unrefined crude—traded on mass and global price benchmarks, not quality differentiation or technical specs.
• Information Increment: Kazakhstan’s export profile is classic resource economy: high volume, low complexity, and exposed to crude oil’s inherent price volatility.
• Constraint: No high-margin grades exist here; this is bulk arbitrage, not value-added processing.

Table: Kazakhstan HS Code 2709) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 2709 Breakdown

Kazakhstan's Crude Oil Exports Show Concentrated European Dependence with Commodity-Driven Demand

How Geographically Stable Is Kazakhstan's Crude Oil Export Network?

• Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports from January through mid-December 2025 flow primarily to European markets, led by Italy which accounts for 37.8% of total export value. This represents significant but not extreme buyer concentration, avoiding a high-risk monopsony. No evidence of re-imports or self-export activity exists, confirming all flows represent genuine foreign demand rather than internal logistics.

Are Buyers Prioritizing Bulk Scale Over Premium Margins?

• Key partners like Italy and the Netherlands display weight shares closely aligned with value shares, signaling commodity-focused procurement for refining or stockpiling rather than premium niche buying. With an average unit price near $0.53/kg, the trade structure favors volume scale over high margins. High shipment frequency to Italy (26.6% of all transactions) further indicates mature, high-volume logistics channels rather than fragmented or speculative purchasing.

Table: Kazakhstan Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Kazakhstan's Crude Oil Exports Are Dominated by a Handful of Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

• Insight-First Summary: According to yTrade data, the Kazakhstan Crude Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts (High Value/High Frequency), who represent 94% of export value and 89% of transaction frequency.
• Structure Verdict: This market operates as a stable, high-volume supply chain dominated by major energy traders and integrated oil companies. Two buyers—ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies—anchor a market where 93.94% of volume flows through long-term contracts rather than spot transactions. The extreme concentration creates both pricing power for sellers and significant dependency risk.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

• The "So What": Sellers must prioritize relationship management with existing Key Accounts, as the market lacks meaningful diversification. Attempts to attract smaller buyers would yield negligible returns given their combined 2.8% value share.
• Strategic Advice: Negotiate multi-year contracts with tiered pricing to lock in strategic partners, but diversify transport options. [Agenzia ICE] reports Kazakhstan's recurring export bans on petroleum products by road and rail, though these restrictions focus on refined products rather than crude oil exports. Ensure maritime export channels remain optimized to avoid policy-driven disruptions.

Table: Kazakhstan Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Kazakhstan Crude Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export in 2025?

A1. A sudden 88% drop in December 2025 reflects Kazakhstan’s policy shift to prioritize domestic refining over exports, triggered by an extended ban on petroleum product exports.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Kazakhstan Crude Oil (HS Code 2709) in 2025?

A2. Italy dominates with 37.8% of export value, followed by the Netherlands, as Europe remains the primary market for Kazakhstan’s bulk crude shipments.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Kazakhstan Crude Oil Export in 2025?

A3. Unit prices are uniformly low ($0.40–0.53/kg) because exports are concentrated in two bulk-grade sub-codes (2709009009 and 2709009003), lacking premium pricing tiers.

Q4. What should exporters in Kazakhstan focus on in the current Crude Oil export market?

A4. Prioritize long-term contracts with key buyers like ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies, who account for 94% of export value, while securing maritime logistics to bypass domestic policy disruptions.

Q5. What does this Kazakhstan Crude Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Buyers benefit from stable bulk supply but face dependency risks; Italy’s high transaction frequency (26.6%) confirms mature, volume-driven trade channels vulnerable to Kazakh policy shifts.

Q6. How is Crude Oil typically used in this trade flow?

A6. Kazakhstan’s crude exports are unrefined bulk commodities, primarily used for refining into fuel or stockpiling, with no value-added processing before shipment.