2025 Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export: Market Shift

Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export Key Takeaways

Sunflower Oil, classified under HS Code 1512, faced extreme volatility and strategic rerouting from January to December 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): Volumes swung wildly, with a 57.99% value collapse in September followed by a 191.51% weight surge in October—traders scrambled to bypass U.S. tariffs and policy restrictions.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export reliance on Uzbekistan (51.49% of value) creates monopsony risk, while just two buyers control 80.4% of export revenue.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 1512 trade data confirms a bulk commodity play—69.5% of exports are crude sunflower oil at rock-bottom unit prices ($1.02–$1.07/kg), with no value-add diversification.

This overview covers the period from January to December 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A Market Held Hostage by Policy and Monopsony

Expert Commentary: Kazakhstan’s sunflower oil trade is a case study in concentrated risk—geopolitical shocks and buyer dependence leave no room for error. The scramble to reroute from the U.S. to China and EEU markets reveals a sector surviving on logistics triage, not strategy.

Strategic Action Plan

• Diversify buyer base: The 80.4% reliance on two firms is untenable. Target secondary markets like Afghanistan (6% value share, premium pricing) to mitigate contract risk.
• Lock in EEU contracts: With U.S. tariffs permanent, secure long-term agreements with Eurasian Economic Union partners to stabilize volumes.
• Audit logistics chains: Automobile transport bans could spill over to agri-exports. Preempt disruptions with rail and maritime redundancies.
• Monitor China’s import patterns: As the likely dumping ground for displaced U.S. volumes, China’s pricing tolerance will dictate margins.
• Abandon price competition: Buyers prioritize bulk reliability. Shift negotiation leverage to payment terms and supply consistency, not per-kg discounts.

Kazakhstan's Sunflower Oil Exports Show Strategic Pivot Amid Trade Turbulence

Volatile 2025 Export Performance

Kazakhstan's sunflower oil export trend saw extreme volatility throughout 2025, with total weight shipped swinging from a September low of 43.16M kg to a November peak of 147.58M kg. The 57.99% value collapse in September preceded the most severe monthly contraction, while October's 191.51% weight surge marked the strongest recovery. This whipsaw movement indicates market participants front-running policy changes rather than responding to fundamental demand shifts.

Policy-Driven Market Dislocation

The data's September cliff-drop effectively predicted the U.S.'s 25% import duty implemented August 1st [The United States Imposes Duties]. The subsequent rebound suggests traders quickly rerouted shipments to alternative markets, maintaining overall hs code 1512 value despite losing premium U.S. pricing. Kazakhstan's broader HS code restrictions [FreightAmigo] further compressed available trade channels.

Strategic Advisory:

• Build redundancy into logistics networks to bypass automobile transport bans on petroleum products (extendable to agricultural exports)
• Secure forward contracts with EEU partners to offset U.S. market access erosion
• Monitor Chinese import patterns as likely diversion endpoint for displaced volumes

Table: Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Data Latest Updates

Crude Sunflower Oil Dominates Kazakhstan's Export Structure

Top-Heavy Volume Dictates Market Reality

• Dominant Sub-Code: Crude sunflower/safflower oil (HS 1512119109) holds a commanding 69.5% value share and 69.5% weight share of total exports.
• According to yTrade data, the top two sub-codes—both crude and refined sunflower/safflower oils—account for 97% of export value, indicating extreme market concentration. This isn't a diversified value chain; it's a bulk commodity operation where a few high-volume codes move the entire market. Kazakhstan's export profile for HS 1512 is structurally top-heavy, reliant on large-scale shipments of basic product forms.

Low Unit Prices Confirm Bulk Commodity Play

• Value Chain Verdict: With unit prices tightly clustered around $1.02–$1.07/kg, this is unequivocally a commodity market driven by volume, not specialization.
• The HS Code 1512 breakdown shows virtually no value-add: exports are dominated by crude and lightly refined oils, not higher-margin, fully refined or consumer-ready products. The absence of significant price dispersion indicates traders are competing on cost and logistics, not technical specifications or quality tiers. This is a low-margin, high-volume game where efficiency trumps differentiation.

Table: Kazakhstan HS Code 1512) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 1512 Breakdown

Kazakhstan's Sunflower Oil Exports Heavily Reliant on Uzbek Market

Is Market Concentration Creating Vulnerability for Kazakh Exports?

• Kazakhstan's sunflower oil exports from January through December 2025 are dominated by Uzbekistan, which accounts for 51.49% of the total export value, indicating a High-Risk Market Monopsony. Secondary markets like China and Tajikistan provide some diversification but fail to mitigate the overreliance on a single buyer. No re-imports or self-exports are present, confirming all flows represent actual foreign consumption rather than internal logistics adjustments.

Do Buyers Prioritize Bulk Volume or Premium Margins?

• Uzbekistan and China drive volume-heavy demand with balanced value-weight ratios, suggesting commodity-grade purchases for industrial use. Afghanistan and Turkmenistan show value shares exceeding weight shares (e.g., Afghanistan: 6.00% value vs. 4.98% weight), indicating premium intent with unit prices around 1.22 USD/kg for Afghanistan. The export profile leans toward volume scale, with limited high-margin opportunities outside core markets.

Table: Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Kazakhstan’s Sunflower Oil Exports Rely on a Handful of Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, the Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts. This segment—just two representative firms—accounts for 80.4% of the export value and 69.95% of volume, indicating a highly concentrated, contract-driven supply chain. The market structure is anchored by long-term agreements rather than spot trading.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 1512 buyer trends reveal extreme concentration risk: losing one key account could jeopardize most export revenue. Sellers should prioritize relationship management and contract security with firms like POLARIS TRADE, while developing secondary channels among Project-based Whales. Although Kazakhstan faces broader trade restrictions[FreightAmigo], sunflower oil remains dominated by stable bulk buyers. Avoid price competition; focus on supply reliability and payment terms.

Table: Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export in 2025?

A1. Kazakhstan's sunflower oil exports faced extreme volatility in 2025 due to policy shifts, including a U.S. import duty, causing traders to reroute shipments to alternative markets like China and Uzbekistan. The market remains highly concentrated, with bulk commodity-grade exports dominating trade flows.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) in 2025?

A2. Uzbekistan is the top destination, accounting for 51.49% of export value, followed by China and Tajikistan. This heavy reliance on Uzbekistan creates significant market concentration risk.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Export in 2025?

A3. Unit prices vary based on product grade and demand—bulk buyers like Uzbekistan and China pay around $1.02–$1.07/kg for crude oil, while Afghanistan pays a premium ($1.22/kg) for higher-value refined products.

Q4. What should exporters in Kazakhstan focus on in the current Sunflower Oil export market?

A4. Exporters must prioritize contract security with key accounts (like POLARIS TRADE) and diversify buyers to reduce reliance on Uzbekistan. Logistics redundancy is critical to navigate trade restrictions.

Q5. What does this Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

A5. Buyers in Uzbekistan benefit from stable bulk supply, while those in secondary markets (e.g., Afghanistan) access premium products. However, overreliance on Kazakhstan exposes buyers to supply chain disruptions.

Q6. How is Sunflower Oil typically used in this trade flow?

A6. Kazakhstan’s exports are primarily crude or lightly refined sunflower oil, used for industrial processing or bulk food production, not consumer-ready products. The low unit prices confirm a commodity-driven market.