Indonesia - United States Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Strong Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - United States Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and United States remains stable with stagnant growth but a strong surplus in Q3 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $1.92B surplus (exports $3.10B vs. imports $1.18B), though YoY growth flatlined at 0.0% for both flows.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - United States trade statistics show a resource-for-tech dynamic—electrical machinery (HS 85) leads exports, while U.S. energy (HS 27) and industrial equipment (HS 84) dominate imports.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric complementarity, with Indonesia supplying labor-intensive goods and the U.S. controlling high-value tech and energy inputs.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-United States Trade Trend in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to United States
- Total Volume: $3.10B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or pricing pressures.
- MoM surge of 15.85% in July suggests short-term order volatility, though no news context explains this spike.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from United States
- Total Volume: $1.18B in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth flat (0.0%), mirroring export trends.
- MoM dip of -1.27% in July hints at minor demand contraction or inventory adjustments.
Indonesia - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $1.92B surplus (Exports $3.10B > Imports $1.18B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports nearly triple imports. No structural shifts detected.
Indonesia Import Trend from United States 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 1.18B | -1.27% | 0.0% |
| Total | 1.18B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to United States 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 3.10B | 15.85% | 0.0% |
| Total | 3.10B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia United States Trade Records
Indonesia-United States Top Trading Products in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to United States
- Top Commodity: Electrical machinery (HS 85) dominates exports, accounting for 16.17% of total value.
- Demand Driver: United States imports consumer goods (e.g., apparel under HS 61/62, footwear under HS 64) and industrial inputs (e.g., palm oil derivatives under HS 15). This reflects a mix of industrial and retail demand.
- Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 exports (HS 85, 84, 61) collectively make up 37.71%, indicating moderate diversification.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from United States
- Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead imports at 25.46%, followed by machinery (HS 84) at 15.56%.
- Dependency Nature: Heavy reliance on U.S. energy (HS 27) and industrial equipment (HS 84/85) signals critical technology and energy security dependency. Agricultural imports (HS 10, 12) suggest supplementary food supply needs.
Indonesia - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports low-to-mid value consumer goods and raw materials (palm oil, textiles) while importing high-value machinery and energy.
- Value Chain Position: United States holds the higher value-add position, with Indonesia primarily supplying labor-intensive or resource-based products. The asymmetry in HS 84/85 trade (U.S. exports machinery, Indonesia exports electrical components) hints at partial supply chain integration.
Import Analysis by Product: United States to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 299.61M | 25.46% |
| 84 | 183.13M | 15.56% |
| 12 | 86.46M | 7.35% |
| 23 | 61.29M | 5.21% |
| 10 | 57.42M | 4.88% |
| 86 | 56.06M | 4.76% |
| 85 | 46.59M | 3.96% |
| 47 | 37.46M | 3.18% |
| 90 | 35.47M | 3.01% |
| 39 | 31.82M | 2.70% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to United States (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 501.18M | 16.17% |
| 84 | 377.15M | 12.16% |
| 61 | 290.84M | 9.38% |
| 64 | 277.85M | 8.96% |
| 15 | 209.54M | 6.76% |
| 62 | 197.24M | 6.36% |
| 40 | 141.06M | 4.55% |
| 94 | 119.29M | 3.85% |
| 38 | 103.08M | 3.32% |
| 03 | 95.86M | 3.09% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia - United States Trade
The Indonesia - United States trade relationship is expected to remain stable in the near term, with modest growth potential constrained by flat YoY trends. The Q3 2025 surge in Indonesian exports to the U.S. suggests short-term volatility rather than a sustained uptick, likely driven by fluctuating order cycles rather than structural demand shifts. However, the persistent trade surplus ($1.92B) underscores Indonesia’s role as a net exporter of consumer goods and industrial inputs, while its reliance on U.S. high-value machinery and energy imports will continue. Traders should anticipate price sensitivity in key sectors like electrical machinery (HS 85) and mineral fuels (HS 27), with potential supply chain adjustments if U.S. industrial demand softens further.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Exporters
- Lock in Energy Supply Contracts: Given Indonesia’s 25.46% dependency on U.S. mineral fuels (HS 27), importers should secure long-term agreements to hedge against potential price volatility or geopolitical disruptions.
- Diversify Export Markets for Consumer Goods: With stagnant YoY growth in U.S. demand for apparel (HS 61/62) and footwear (HS 64), Indonesian exporters must explore emerging markets to reduce reliance on a single buyer.
- Invest in Upgrading Electrical Machinery Exports: To counterbalance the U.S.’s dominance in high-value machinery (HS 84/85), Indonesian manufacturers should prioritize R&D to move beyond low-to-mid value components and capture higher-margin segments.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - United States trade perform in 2025 Q3?
Indonesia exported $3.10B and imported $1.18B, with flat YoY growth (0.0%) for both exports and imports. A 15.85% MoM surge in July exports contrasted with a -1.27% MoM dip in imports.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to United States?
Electrical machinery (HS 85) led exports (16.17%), followed by apparel (HS 61/62) and footwear (HS 64). The top 3 categories accounted for 37.71% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from United States?
Mineral fuels (HS 27) dominated imports (25.46%), with machinery (HS 84) at 15.56%. Agricultural products (HS 10, 12) also featured, reflecting energy and tech dependencies.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and United States?
Indonesia maintained a $1.92B surplus (exports $3.10B > imports $1.18B), with exports nearly triple imports. No structural shifts were detected in the trade relationship.
Indonesia - United States Trade 2025 Q2: Surplus & Tech Swap
Indonesia's $4.25B trade surplus with the US highlights a resource-for-tech exchange, with electrical machinery and mineral fuels dominating Indonesia United States trade trends. Verified by yTrade.
Indonesia Vegetable Oils HS151620 Export Data 2025 Q3 Overview
Indonesia Vegetable oils (HS Code 151620) Export in 2025 Q3 shows China dominates 73.54% volume at low prices, while African markets like Algeria pay premium rates. Data sourced from yTrade.
