Indonesia - United States Trade 2025 Q2: Surplus & Tech Swap
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - United States Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and United States shows growth with volatility in Q2 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia holds a $4.25B trade surplus, exporting $7.49B (up 18.21% YoY peak) while importing $3.24B (down -3.41% YoY low).
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - United States trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech swap—electrical machinery (21% of exports) for mineral fuels (21% of imports).
- Strategic Interdependence: Complementary but asymmetric—US dominates high-value tech, while Indonesia supplies consumer goods and raw materials.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-United States Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to United States
- Total Volume: $7.49B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY performance: +18.21% in April, +24.94% in May, but flat (0%) in June.
- No specific trade news or policy changes to explain fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: May saw a sharp 31.48% MoM surge, followed by a slight -2.05% dip in June.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from United States
- Total Volume: $3.24B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Weak YoY demand: -3.41% in April, -8.64% in May, and flat (0%) in June.
- Key Volatility: May recorded the highest MoM jump (+13.09%), while April had the lowest YoY contraction (-3.41%).
Indonesia - United States Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $4.25B trade surplus for Indonesia (Exports $7.49B vs. Imports $3.24B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia maintains a strong net exporter role, with exports more than double imports.
Indonesia Import Trend from United States 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 960.77M | 2.47% | -3.41% |
| May | 1.09B | 13.09% | -8.64% |
| Jun | 1.19B | 9.71% | 0.0% |
| Total | 3.24B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to United States 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 2.08B | -20.87% | 18.21% |
| May | 2.73B | 31.48% | 24.94% |
| Jun | 2.68B | -2.05% | 0.0% |
| Total | 7.49B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia United States Trade Records
Indonesia-United States Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to United States
- Top Commodity: HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery) dominates with $1.59B (21.18% share).
- Demand Driver: United States imports consumer electronics and components, serving its tech-driven consumer market.
- Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but HS Code 85’s 21% share indicates moderate concentration.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from United States
- Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels) leads at $665.77M (20.55% share).
- Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, with mineral fuels critical for Indonesia’s industrial and domestic needs.
Indonesia - United States Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports electrical machinery (consumer goods) and imports energy (mineral fuels), reflecting a classic resource-for-technology swap.
- Value Chain Position: United States holds higher value-add in tech exports (HS Codes 84, 85), while Indonesia supplies lower-margin consumer goods and raw materials.
Import Analysis by Product: United States to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 665.77M | 20.55% |
| 84 | 607.60M | 18.76% |
| 85 | 436.83M | 13.49% |
| 12 | 234.48M | 7.24% |
| 23 | 158.32M | 4.89% |
| 47 | 121.74M | 3.76% |
| 39 | 91.40M | 2.82% |
| 90 | 79.37M | 2.45% |
| 52 | 57.22M | 1.77% |
| 28 | 55.16M | 1.70% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to United States (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 1.59B | 21.18% |
| 61 | 651.71M | 8.71% |
| 64 | 633.98M | 8.47% |
| 62 | 492.17M | 6.57% |
| 15 | 484.03M | 6.47% |
| 40 | 392.21M | 5.24% |
| 94 | 311.97M | 4.17% |
| 03 | 294.41M | 3.93% |
| 38 | 278.71M | 3.72% |
| 84 | 274.12M | 3.66% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-United States Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with the United States is expected to hold steady in Q3 2025, supported by resilient demand for electrical machinery (HS Code 85) and stable energy imports. However, the flat June export performance signals potential softening in tech-driven demand, while weak U.S. import growth suggests subdued near-term appetite for Indonesian goods. Traders should prepare for volatility, particularly in consumer electronics, as U.S. inventory adjustments and shifting consumption patterns could disrupt flows. The resource-for-tech complementarity will remain the backbone of bilateral trade, but diversification into higher-value exports (e.g., processed minerals) could mitigate overreliance on low-margin goods.
Strategic Moves
- Lock in Energy Contracts: U.S. mineral fuel exporters should secure long-term supply agreements with Indonesian buyers to capitalize on the country’s energy security needs and hedge against oil price swings.
- Shift Up the Value Chain: Indonesian electronics manufacturers must pivot to higher-margin components (e.g., semiconductors) to reduce vulnerability to U.S. consumer demand cycles and tariff risks.
- Monitor U.S. Inventory Data: Exporters should track U.S. retail and wholesale inventory reports to anticipate order fluctuations, especially ahead of Q4 holiday demand spikes.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - United States trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia exported $7.49B to the United States (mixed YoY growth) and imported $3.24B (weak YoY demand), resulting in a $4.25B trade surplus.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to United States?
Electrical machinery (HS Code 85) dominated Indonesia’s exports to the United States, accounting for $1.59B (21.18% share).
What does Indonesia import from United States?
Mineral fuels (HS Code 27) were the top import, valued at $665.77M (20.55% share), reflecting Indonesia’s energy security needs.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and United States?
Indonesia maintained a $4.25B trade surplus with the United States, with exports more than double imports.
Indonesia - United States Trade 2025 Q1: Strong Growth & Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with the U.S. hit $4.17B in Q1 2025, fueled by resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia United States trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - United States Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Strong Surplus
Indonesia's trade surplus with the U.S. hits $1.92B in Q3 2025, with electrical machinery leading exports. Explore Indonesia United States trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
