Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines remained stagnant in Q3 2025, with flat YoY growth for both exports and imports.
- Indonesia holds a dominant $715.31M trade surplus, exporting $876.31M (5.4x higher than imports) to the Philippines, signaling lopsided trade reliance.
- Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic: Indonesia exports high-value vehicles (29.8% of total) and machinery, while importing raw ores (51.07%) from the Philippines.
- Complementary but imbalanced: Indonesia’s value-add dominance in finished goods contrasts with the Philippines’ role as a raw material supplier, limiting deeper supply chain integration.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines
- Total Volume: $876.31M in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth remained flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or pricing parity.
- Key Volatility: July saw a -3.87% MoM dip, suggesting mild month-end contraction.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines
- Total Volume: $161.00M in Q3 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was flat (0.0%), reflecting steady but unremarkable procurement.
- Key Volatility: July imports plunged -21.93% MoM, signaling a sharp monthly demand drop.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $715.31M surplus for Indonesia (Exports: $876.31M > Imports: $161.00M).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports 5.4x higher than imports. The deficit for the Philippines underscores lopsided trade reliance.
Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 161.00M | -21.93% | 0.0% |
| Total | 161.00M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 876.31M | -3.87% | 0.0% |
| Total | 876.31M | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records
Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines
- Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 29.80% of total value.
- Demand Driver: Philippines imports vehicles for consumer and commercial use, reflecting strong demand in its domestic market.
- Concentration: Exports are moderately concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 87, 27, 15) making up 59.37% of total exports.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines
- Top Commodity: Ores (HS 26) lead imports, representing 51.07% of total value.
- Dependency Nature: Indonesia relies on Philippines for raw materials, indicating an energy security or industrial processing dependency.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports high-value manufactured goods (vehicles, machinery) while importing raw materials (ores) from Philippines.
- Value Chain Position: Indonesia holds the higher value-add position, exporting finished products (HS 87, 84) and importing less-processed commodities (HS 26).
Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | 82.23M | 51.07% |
| 85 | 48.43M | 30.08% |
| 84 | 6.39M | 3.97% |
| 87 | 4.97M | 3.09% |
| 24 | 3.87M | 2.41% |
| 90 | 2.59M | 1.61% |
| 40 | 2.46M | 1.53% |
| 38 | 1.10M | 0.68% |
| 29 | 1.02M | 0.63% |
| 48 | 801.23K | 0.50% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 261.13M | 29.80% |
| 27 | 161.03M | 18.38% |
| 15 | 98.08M | 11.19% |
| 21 | 39.84M | 4.55% |
| 84 | 38.21M | 4.36% |
| 38 | 35.54M | 4.06% |
| 24 | 30.73M | 3.51% |
| 72 | 17.39M | 1.98% |
| 48 | 17.22M | 1.97% |
| 19 | 16.80M | 1.92% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade surplus with the Philippines is expected to hold steady in Q4 2025, but stagnant YoY growth signals a need for strategic adjustments. The flat export performance suggests market saturation for key products like vehicles (HS 87), while the sharp MoM import drop in July indicates volatile demand for Philippine ores (HS 26). Traders should anticipate muted growth unless new demand drivers emerge, such as Philippine infrastructure projects or Indonesian industrial diversification. The Indonesia - Philippines trade forecast hinges on breaking this equilibrium through targeted sectoral investments.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Offerings: Indonesian exporters must reduce reliance on vehicles by promoting secondary high-value categories like machinery (HS 84) or electronics (HS 85) to capture new Philippine demand.
- Lock in Ore Supply Contracts: Given Indonesia’s dependency on Philippine ores, importers should secure long-term agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable raw material inflows.
- Monitor Philippine Industrial Policy: Traders must track Manila’s infrastructure and manufacturing plans to preempt shifts in demand for Indonesian exports or competition in resource sectors.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2025 Q3?
Indonesia's exports to the Philippines totaled $876.31M, while imports were $161.00M, with both showing flat YoY growth (0.0%).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?
The top exports are Vehicles (HS 87), followed by Mineral Fuels (HS 27) and Animal/Vegetable Fats (HS 15), accounting for 59.37% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Philippines?
Indonesia primarily imports Ores (HS 26), making up 51.07% of total imports, reflecting a reliance on raw materials.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?
Indonesia holds a $715.31M surplus, with exports 5.4x higher than imports, indicating a lopsided trade reliance.
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