Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2025 Q2: $2.20B Surplus
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Philippines shows Indonesia dominating as a net exporter with a $2.20B surplus in Q2 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia’s exports to the Philippines totaled $2.67B, dwarfing imports ($472.70M), maintaining a strong surplus. Growth momentum slowed by June, signaling potential demand shifts.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Philippines trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Indonesia exports vehicles (HS 87) and mineral fuels (HS 27) while importing ores (HS 26) for industrial processing.
- Strategic Interdependence: Indonesia holds higher value-add, supplying finished goods, while the Philippines remains a key raw material supplier, reflecting asymmetric but mutually beneficial trade.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Philippines Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Philippines
- Total Volume: $2.67B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth peaked in May (+5.76%) but flattened to 0.0% by June, suggesting a loss of momentum.
- No trade policy shifts were reported to explain the stagnation.
- Key Volatility: May saw the highest MoM surge (+11.78%), while June recorded a slight dip (-2.02%).
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Philippines
- Total Volume: $472.70M in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was volatile, from +12.5% in May to 0.0% in June, indicating demand instability.
- Key Volatility: Imports spiked 43.8% MoM in May before moderating to +31.2% in June.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $2.20B surplus for Indonesia (Exports $2.67B vs. Imports $472.70M).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 5.6x imports. The Philippines remains a minor trade partner in this quarter.
Indonesia Import Trend from Philippines 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 109.30M | 6.19% | 3.06% |
| May | 157.18M | 43.8% | 12.5% |
| Jun | 206.22M | 31.2% | 0.0% |
| Total | 472.70M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Philippines 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 832.37M | 1.86% | 3.75% |
| May | 930.43M | 11.78% | 5.76% |
| Jun | 911.64M | -2.02% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2.67B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Philippines Trade Records
Indonesia-Philippines Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Philippines
- Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 27.95% of total value.
- Demand Driver: Philippines imports these for consumer market needs, including passenger and commercial vehicles.
- Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but HS 87 and HS 27 (mineral fuels) combined make up 52.19%, indicating moderate concentration.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Philippines
- Top Commodity: Ores (HS 26) lead imports, representing 47.11% of total value.
- Dependency Nature: Indonesia relies on Philippines for raw materials, particularly iron and copper ores, highlighting industrial processing dependency.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports vehicles and mineral fuels (HS 87, 27) while importing ores (HS 26) and machinery (HS 85).
- Value Chain Position: Indonesia holds higher value-add, exporting finished goods (vehicles) versus Philippines' raw material focus (ores).
Import Analysis by Product: Philippines to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | 222.71M | 47.11% |
| 85 | 155.39M | 32.87% |
| 84 | 16.58M | 3.51% |
| 87 | 14.84M | 3.14% |
| 24 | 13.14M | 2.78% |
| 90 | 10.64M | 2.25% |
| 29 | 6.93M | 1.47% |
| 36 | 4.41M | 0.93% |
| 18 | 2.75M | 0.58% |
| 40 | 2.70M | 0.57% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Philippines (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 747.44M | 27.95% |
| 27 | 648.27M | 24.24% |
| 15 | 250.45M | 9.36% |
| 21 | 134.11M | 5.01% |
| 38 | 119.10M | 4.45% |
| 84 | 88.61M | 3.31% |
| 24 | 79.15M | 2.96% |
| 48 | 70.10M | 2.62% |
| 85 | 53.28M | 1.99% |
| 19 | 48.94M | 1.83% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Philippines Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia - Philippines Trade
The Indonesia - Philippines trade forecast suggests a period of consolidation in Q3 2025, with export growth likely to remain flat unless new demand drivers emerge. The stagnation in June, coupled with volatile import trends from the Philippines, signals potential headwinds. However, the strong complementarity in trade—Indonesia’s finished vehicles and mineral fuels for the Philippines’ raw ores—provides a stable foundation. Traders should prepare for moderate volatility, with a possible uptick in ore imports as Indonesia’s industrial processing demand persists.
Strategic Moves for Traders
- Lock in Long-term Contracts for Ores: Given Indonesia’s dependency on Philippine iron and copper ores (HS 26), securing fixed-price agreements will mitigate supply chain disruptions and price fluctuations.
- Diversify Export Markets for Vehicles: With vehicle exports (HS 87) dominating but growth stalling, Indonesian manufacturers should target emerging markets in Southeast Asia to reduce reliance on Philippine demand.
- Monitor Mineral Fuel Demand Closely: As HS 27 (mineral fuels) is a key export, traders must track Philippine energy policy shifts and adjust shipments to avoid inventory gluts during demand downturns.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Philippines trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia exported $2.67B to the Philippines and imported $472.70M, with export growth peaking in May (+5.76% YoY) but flattening by June.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Philippines?
Vehicles (HS 87) and mineral fuels (HS 27) dominate Indonesia's exports, accounting for 52.19% of total trade value.
What does Indonesia import from Philippines?
Ores (HS 26) lead Indonesia's imports, making up 47.11% of total value, followed by machinery (HS 85).
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Philippines?
Indonesia recorded a $2.20B surplus, with exports nearly 5.6x higher than imports, maintaining its dominance as a net exporter.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2025 Q1: $2.17B Surge
Indonesia's $2.17B trade surplus with Philippines highlights a resource-for-tech exchange, with vehicles and fuels dominating exports. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade.
Indonesia - Philippines Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth
Indonesia's trade surplus with the Philippines hits $715.31M in Q3 2025, with vehicles dominating exports. Explore Indonesia Philippines trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
