Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q2: Widening Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Mainland China Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Mainland China shows mixed growth with a widening deficit in Q2 2025.
- $37.3B total trade volume, $5.5B deficit: Indonesia’s imports from China ($21.4B) far outpace exports ($15.9B), despite strong YoY growth in April-May before June stagnation.
- Resource-for-tech exchange: Indonesia - Mainland China trade statistics reveal 74% of exports are raw materials (iron, ores, fats), while imports are dominated by machinery (24%) and electronics, highlighting structural complementarity.
- Asymmetric interdependence: Indonesia relies on China for critical manufacturing inputs, while China secures upstream commodities—a dynamic that locks in China’s higher value-add position.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China
- Total Volume: $15.91B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed, with April and May showing +12.3% and +12.38% respectively, but June flatlined at 0%.
- No significant trade news to explain the June stagnation.
- Key Volatility: May saw the highest MoM jump (+9.49%), while April recorded a -7.31% decline.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China
- Total Volume: $21.42B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Strong YoY growth in April (+50.93%) and May (+21.15%), but June showed no growth (0%).
- No relevant news to contextualize the sharp April-May surge or June’s flatline.
- Key Volatility: April had the highest MoM increase (+11.41%), while June dropped -6.66%.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of $5.51B (Imports $21.42B > Exports $15.91B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains heavily dependent on imports from Mainland China, with a widening deficit compared to exports.
Indonesia Import Trend from Mainland China 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 7.11B | 11.41% | 50.93% |
| May | 7.40B | 4.2% | 21.15% |
| Jun | 6.91B | -6.66% | 0.0% |
| Total | 21.42B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Mainland China 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 5.05B | -7.31% | 12.3% |
| May | 5.53B | 9.49% | 12.38% |
| Jun | 5.33B | -3.62% | 0.0% |
| Total | 15.91B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Mainland China Trade Records
Indonesia-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS Code 72 (Iron & Steel) at 29.61% of total exports to Mainland China.
- Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials (Iron & Steel, Ores, Fats/Oils) for industrial processing and manufacturing.
- Concentration: The top 5 exports (HS Codes 72, 27, 15, 75, 26) account for 73.96% of total exports, indicating high reliance on raw materials.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS Code 84 (Machinery/Mechanical Appliances) at 23.64% of total imports from Mainland China.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, with machinery (HS 84, 85) and plastics (HS 39) dominating imports.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (Iron, Ores, Fats) while importing high-tech machinery and manufactured goods.
- Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery and electronics, while Indonesia provides upstream commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 5.06B | 23.64% |
| 85 | 4.38B | 20.46% |
| 87 | 1.20B | 5.60% |
| 72 | 1.00B | 4.68% |
| 39 | 965.72M | 4.51% |
| 73 | 726.68M | 3.39% |
| 38 | 644.31M | 3.01% |
| 29 | 617.57M | 2.88% |
| 28 | 439.90M | 2.05% |
| 94 | 388.75M | 1.82% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | 4.71B | 29.61% |
| 27 | 2.45B | 15.40% |
| 15 | 1.67B | 10.47% |
| 75 | 1.60B | 10.07% |
| 26 | 1.34B | 8.41% |
| 47 | 685.80M | 4.31% |
| 38 | 600.43M | 3.77% |
| 74 | 294.05M | 1.85% |
| 28 | 237.87M | 1.49% |
| 29 | 228.44M | 1.44% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia - Mainland China Trade
The Indonesia - Mainland China trade relationship is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with raw material exports (Iron & Steel, Ores) facing potential demand fluctuations due to China’s industrial cycle shifts. While the resource-for-tech complementarity will sustain trade flows, the widening deficit signals Indonesia’s growing import dependency, which may pressure its trade balance if export growth stagnates further. Traders should prepare for uneven monthly performance, with machinery imports likely maintaining dominance.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Long-Term Commodity Contracts: Indonesian steel and ore exporters should secure fixed-price agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable revenue streams.
- Diversify Import Sources for Critical Machinery: Reduce overreliance on Chinese tech imports by exploring alternative suppliers in Japan, South Korea, or the EU to balance trade risks.
- Push Downstream Export Upgrades: Indonesia must accelerate value-added processing of raw materials (e.g., refined nickel products) to capture higher margins and reduce exposure to commodity price swings.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Mainland China trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia exported $15.91B and imported $21.42B, with mixed YoY growth (April-May up, June flat) and high volatility in monthly trends.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Mainland China?
Iron & Steel (HS 72) dominated at 29.61%, followed by ores, fats/oils, and other raw materials (top 5 commodities made up 73.96% of exports).
What does Indonesia import from Mainland China?
Machinery/Mechanical Appliances (HS 84) led at 23.64%, alongside electronics (HS 85) and plastics (HS 39), reflecting tech dependency.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Mainland China?
Indonesia had a $5.51B trade deficit, with imports exceeding exports, indicating a widening reliance on Mainland China’s manufactured goods.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Tech Exchange
Indonesia's trade deficit with Mainland China hit $4.04B in Q1 2025, driven by a 38.65% import surge. Explore Indonesia Mainland China trade trends and top trading products like iron/steel on yTrade.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q3: Stagnant Growth, Widening Deficit
Indonesia's trade with Mainland China stagnated in Q3 2025, with a $2.33B deficit. Explore Indonesia Mainland China trade trends and top trading products like raw materials and tech on yTrade.
