Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q1: Deficit & Tech Exchange
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Mainland China Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Mainland China showed mixed growth with heightened volatility in Q1 2025.
- $33.3B total trade volume with a $4.04B deficit for Indonesia, driven by March’s 38.65% YoY import surge from China.
- Resource-for-Tech exchange: Indonesia’s top exports (iron/steel, fuels, nickel) supply China’s industry, while 44% of imports are machinery/electronics.
- Asymmetric interdependence: China holds the value-add advantage, with Indonesia locked into a raw material supplier role.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China
- Total Volume: $14.62B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was mixed: January saw a -3.02% decline, but February and March rebounded with +9.27% and +11.35% growth, respectively.
- No specific trade news or policies were announced to explain these fluctuations.
- Key Volatility: March recorded a sharp MoM surge of +21.28%, the highest in the quarter.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China
- Total Volume: $18.66B in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY growth was volatile: January (+3.82%), February (+0.36%), and March (+38.65%) showed erratic demand.
- No relevant news to contextualize the March spike.
- Key Volatility: March imports surged +4.53% MoM and +38.65% YoY, marking the quarter’s peak.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of -$4.04B (Exports $14.62B vs. Imports $18.66B).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains heavily dependent on imports from Mainland China, with March’s import surge widening the deficit.
Indonesia Import Trend from Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 6.19B | 0.0% | 3.82% |
| Feb | 6.10B | -1.36% | 0.36% |
| Mar | 6.38B | 4.53% | 38.65% |
| Total | 18.66B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 4.68B | 0.0% | -3.02% |
| Feb | 4.49B | -3.92% | 9.27% |
| Mar | 5.45B | 21.28% | 11.35% |
| Total | 14.62B | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Mainland China Trade Records
Indonesia-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is Iron and Steel (HS 72), accounting for 29.40% of total exports to Mainland China.
- Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials for industrial processing, likely feeding its construction and manufacturing sectors.
- Concentration: The top 3 exports (Iron and Steel, Mineral Fuels, and Nickel) make up 61.26% of total exports, indicating high trade concentration.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Mainland China
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is Machinery (HS 84), making up 22.59% of total imports from Mainland China.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery and electrical equipment (HS 84 + HS 85) dominate nearly 44% of imports.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports raw materials (Iron, Mineral Fuels, Nickel) while importing high-value machinery and electronics.
- Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced industrial goods, while Indonesia remains a key supplier of raw materials.
Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 4.22B | 22.59% |
| 85 | 3.96B | 21.20% |
| 87 | 1.03B | 5.51% |
| 39 | 886.43M | 4.75% |
| 72 | 843.12M | 4.52% |
| 29 | 590.00M | 3.16% |
| 38 | 564.97M | 3.03% |
| 73 | 482.63M | 2.59% |
| 28 | 447.34M | 2.40% |
| 27 | 357.43M | 1.92% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 72 | 4.30B | 29.40% |
| 27 | 3.00B | 20.52% |
| 75 | 1.66B | 11.34% |
| 15 | 1.33B | 9.09% |
| 47 | 710.69M | 4.86% |
| 38 | 607.17M | 4.15% |
| 26 | 439.71M | 3.01% |
| 74 | 232.70M | 1.59% |
| 29 | 228.11M | 1.56% |
| 40 | 227.82M | 1.56% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast for Indonesia - Mainland China Trade
The Indonesia - Mainland China trade relationship is poised for continued growth in Q2 2025, driven by resilient demand for Indonesian raw materials like iron, steel, and nickel, which feed Mainland China’s industrial and construction sectors. However, the widening trade deficit signals an overreliance on Chinese machinery and electronics, leaving Indonesia vulnerable to supply chain disruptions. Expect volatility in import costs, especially if Mainland China’s industrial demand remains erratic. Traders should prepare for both opportunities in commodity exports and risks from import dependency.
Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers
- Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Indonesian exporters of iron, steel, and nickel should secure fixed-price agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price fluctuations and ensure stable revenue streams.
- Diversify Import Sources: Reduce overreliance on Chinese machinery by exploring alternative suppliers in South Korea, Japan, or Germany to balance trade and improve bargaining power.
- Invest in Value-Added Processing: Indonesia must shift from raw material exports to domestic processing (e.g., steel fabrication, nickel battery production) to capture higher margins and reduce dependency on finished Chinese goods.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Mainland China trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Indonesia exported $14.62B to Mainland China and imported $18.66B, with mixed YoY growth trends and a sharp March surge in both exports (+21.28% MoM) and imports (+38.65% YoY).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Mainland China?
Iron and Steel (HS 72) lead Indonesia’s exports (29.40%), followed by Mineral Fuels and Nickel, which together account for 61.26% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Mainland China?
Machinery (HS 84) is Indonesia’s top import (22.59%), with electrical equipment (HS 85) and machinery combined dominating 44% of imports.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Mainland China?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of -$4.04B, with March’s import surge widening the gap.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2024 Q2: Resource-for-Tech Exchange
Indonesia's trade with Mainland China shows a $1.4B deficit in Q2 2024, driven by machinery imports outpacing commodity exports. Explore Indonesia Mainland China trade trends and top trading products on yTrade.
Indonesia - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q2: Widening Deficit
Indonesia's trade with Mainland China hit $37.3B in Q2 2025, with a $5.5B deficit. Explore Indonesia Mainland China trade trends and top trading products like raw materials vs machinery. Data via yTrade.
