2025 Indonesia Hot-rolled steel (7208) Export: Surge & Volatility

Key Takeaways

Hot-rolled steel, classified under HS Code 7208 (Flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel with a width of 600 mm or more, hot-rolled, but not clad, plated or coated), exhibited pronounced volatility from January to September 2025.

• Market Pulse: Exports surged 161% by weight from January to September, peaking at 296 million kg, with a 111% month-on-month spike in May followed by a 35% July contraction.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Hot-rolled steel Export reliance on Southern Europe (Spain: 22.22% value share, Italy: 21.98%) creates vulnerability to regional economic shifts. Buyer concentration is extreme, with 85.44% of value tied to High-Volume Repeaters.
• Product Logic: HS Code 7208 trade data confirms a commodity-driven market—average unit prices hover at $0.50/kg, except for niche pickled steel ($0.90/kg). Bulk volume dominates, leaving margins exposed to global price swings.

This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel (HS Code 7208) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

Indonesia's hot-rolled steel export trend under HS code 7208 exhibited pronounced volatility from January to September 2025, with weight surging 161% from the January low to a September peak of 296 million kg. The trajectory featured a sharp 111% month-on-month spike in May to 291 million kg, followed by a 35% contraction in July, before rebounding strongly in August and September.

Drivers & Industry Context

The May export surge likely reflects anticipatory shipping ahead of or in response to global trade policy shifts, such as Indonesia's extension of anti-dumping duties on HRC imports from seven countries effective January 15, 2025 [GMK Center], which may have bolstered domestic producer confidence and export capacity. Concurrently, the hs code 7208 value mirrored weight volatility, peaking at $153.85 million in September, driven by fluctuating unit prices and aligned with regional safeguard measures like India's 12% duty on flat steel imports (Argus Media) that could have redirected demand toward Indonesian exports.

Table: Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel Data Latest Updates

Indonesia HS Code 7208 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, Indonesia's HS Code 7208 export is led by hot-rolled steel in coils with thickness between 3mm and 4.75mm, representing nearly 32% of the total weight throughout the first three quarters of 2025. Other significant categories include thicker plates exceeding 10mm and various non-coil forms, while minor sub-codes cover specialized patterns or pickled finishes with minimal weight shares.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

Unit prices for this HS Code 7208 breakdown average around 0.50 USD/kg, with little variation except for a few niche products like pickled steel at 0.90 USD/kg. This tight price band confirms a commodity market driven by cost efficiency rather than quality differentiation. The trade structure emphasizes volume over value-add, making it susceptible to global price fluctuations.

Table: Indonesia HS Code 7208) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 7208 Breakdown

Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Spain dominates Indonesia's Hot-rolled steel export destinations from January to September 2025, accounting for 22.22% of total value, indicating high market reliance on European demand. Italy follows closely with 21.98% value share, reinforcing regional concentration in Southern Europe. This tight clustering suggests potential vulnerability to economic shifts in these key markets.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

The near-parallel alignment of value and weight ratios across top trade partners for Hot-rolled steel points to price-sensitive bulk processing, not premium or retail segments. With minimal value-weight gaps—like Spain’s 22.22% value versus 21.12% weight—the market prioritizes volume scale over margin potential. Low frequency ratios relative to weight confirm industrial stockpiling drives demand, not fragmented distribution.

Table: Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel (HS Code 7208) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel (HS Code 7208) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Indonesia Hot-rolled steel buyers are overwhelmingly dominated by High-Volume Repeaters, who represent 85.44% of the value share, pointing to a stable, contract-based supply chain typical of factories or large retailers. This segment also shows high frequency, with 72.73% of transactions, reinforcing their role as anchor clients in the market. The concentration underscores a reliance on a few key players for the majority of revenue.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

The HS Code 7208 buyer trends indicate loyal, repeat purchasing, so sales strategy should prioritize securing long-term contracts and offering volume-based incentives to retain these accounts. However, the high value concentration poses significant risk if any major buyer exits; diversifying into smaller, transactional buyers through digital channels could mitigate this. As reported by [gmk.center], Indonesia's extended anti-dumping duties may further solidify domestic buyer loyalty, making relationship depth critical.

Table: Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel (HS Code 7208) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Indonesia Hot-rolled Steel Buyers list

Action Plan for Hot-rolled Steel Market Operation and Expansion

• Lock in long-term contracts: High buyer concentration (85.44% value from repeat clients) demands secured commitments to stabilize revenue. Offer volume incentives to anchor key accounts.
• Diversify export markets: Reduce reliance on Southern Europe (43.2% combined value share) by targeting emerging Southeast Asian or African industrial hubs.
• Optimize logistics costs: Bulk-driven trade (minimal value-weight gaps) leaves no room for premium pricing. Negotiate freight rates or consolidate shipments to protect margins.
• Monitor policy shifts: Indonesia’s extended anti-dumping duties and India’s 12% flat steel import duty may disrupt trade flows. Adjust sourcing or pricing strategies preemptively.
• Audit niche opportunities: Explore pickled steel ($0.90/kg) or thicker plates (>10mm) to offset commodity price risks, though volumes remain limited.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Hot-rolled steel HS Code 7208 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Hot-rolled steel Export in 2025?

Indonesia's hot-rolled steel exports surged 161% in weight from January to September 2025, peaking in May and September. This volatility reflects anticipatory shipping ahead of trade policy shifts, including Indonesia's extended anti-dumping duties and regional safeguard measures like India's 12% duty on flat steel imports.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Hot-rolled steel (HS Code 7208) in 2025?

Spain (22.22% of total value) and Italy (21.98%) dominate Indonesia's hot-rolled steel exports, indicating heavy reliance on Southern European demand. The tight geographic concentration highlights potential vulnerability to economic shifts in these markets.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Hot-rolled steel Export in 2025?

Unit prices average 0.50 USD/kg for most bulk products, with minimal variation. The exception is niche sub-codes like pickled steel, which commands 0.90 USD/kg, but these represent a negligible share of total exports.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Hot-rolled steel export market?

Exporters should prioritize securing long-term contracts with High-Volume Repeaters (85.44% of value share) while diversifying into smaller buyers to mitigate reliance on a few key clients. Digital channels could help expand transactional buyer networks.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Hot-rolled steel export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, volume-driven supply chains but face risks from Indonesia's export volatility and anti-dumping policies. The commodity nature of the market ensures cost efficiency but limits quality differentiation.

Q6. How is Hot-rolled steel typically used in this trade flow?

The product is primarily used for industrial bulk processing, evidenced by aligned value-weight ratios and low frequency-to-weight ratios. Demand stems from stockpiling by factories or large retailers, not fragmented retail distribution.