2025 Indonesia Uncoated Paper (HS 4802) Export: Volatile Swings

Key Takeaways

Uncoated paper, classified under HS Code 4802 (Uncoated paper and cardboard for writing, printing or similar purposes, unperforated punched cards and punched tape paper, rolls or sheets of rectangles (including squares), of any size, except for paper of heading 48.01 or 48.03 ;Handmade paper and cardb), exhibited high volatility from January to September 2025.

• Market Pulse: Export volumes fell 20.9% by March, surged 27.5% in April, then finished 4.6% lower by September, reflecting trade policy disruptions and competitive pressures.
• Structural Shift: Indonesia Uncoated paper Export reliance on Japan (12.38% of value) and a few high-volume buyers (88.53% of value) creates concentration risk amid anti-dumping measures.
• Product Logic: HS Code 4802 trade data shows a commodity-driven market, with 51.5% of value from cut-sheet paper and minimal price differentiation ($0.58–$0.83/kg).

This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Indonesia Uncoated Paper (HS Code 4802) Key Metrics Trend

Market Trend Summary

The Indonesia Uncoated paper Export trend for HS Code 4802 showed pronounced volatility throughout the first three quarters of 2025. After opening at 262.33M kg in January, export volumes fell sharply by 20.9% through March, then surged 27.5% in April before entering a choppy pattern with another 13.7% jump in July. The overall trajectory finished 4.6% lower by September compared to January levels, reflecting inconsistent shipment patterns amid trade headwinds.

Drivers & Industry Context

This volatility aligns directly with India's extension of definitive anti-dumping duties on uncoated copier paper under HS Code 4802 from Indonesia [TaxTMI]. The 20.9% export contraction in early 2025 likely reflects market adjustment to these trade barriers, while subsequent rebounds suggest exporters seeking alternative markets or pricing strategies. The 2.9% decline in average unit price from May to September indicates competitive pressure, potentially explaining how Indonesia maintained some export volume despite restricted access to a major market. The hs code 4802 value ultimately reflects this push-pull between trade policy constraints and Indonesia's position as the world's largest uncoated paper exporter (OEC).

Table: Indonesia Uncoated Paper Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia HS Code 4802 Export Breakdown

Market Composition & Top Categories

According to yTrade data, Indonesia's HS Code 4802 export market is dominated by uncoated printing paper in cut sheets (435x297mm or smaller), which accounts for over half (51.5%) of the total export value in the first three quarters of 2025. The next largest segments are the same grade of paper in rolls (19.9% value share) and other forms not elsewhere specified (11.6%). The remaining sub-codes consist of various other paper weights and forms, collectively making up a minor portion of the total Indonesia HS Code 4802 export profile.

Value Chain & Strategic Insights

The HS Code 4802 breakdown reveals a classic commodity market structure, where unit prices are tightly clustered between $0.58 and $0.83 per kilogram. The slight premium for heavier-weight paper and certain sheet formats does not indicate significant product specialization but rather reflects basic cost-plus pricing for different production runs. This trade structure is fundamentally price-sensitive, with competition driven by volume and cost efficiency rather than product differentiation or brand value.

Table: Indonesia HS Code 4802) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Uncoated Paper Destination Countries

Geographic Concentration & Market Risk

Indonesia's Uncoated paper exports from January to September 2025 show strong geographic concentration, with Japan dominating at 12.38% of total export value. This heavy reliance on a single market for Indonesia Uncoated paper export destinations introduces significant exposure to any demand or economic changes in Japan. The top three partners—Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam—collectively account for over a quarter of export value, amplifying concentration risks.

Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation

Japan's value share exceeding its weight share (12.38% vs. 9.73%) signals a market oriented toward higher-value Uncoated paper, reflecting quality-conscious demand rather than bulk commodity purchases. The frequency of shipments is robust but not disproportionately high, indicating stable, consolidated orders rather than fragmented retail buying. This behavior points to margin potential for Indonesian exporters when engaging trade partners for Uncoated paper, emphasizing premium product strategies over volume scale.

Table: Indonesia Uncoated Paper (HS Code 4802) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Indonesia Uncoated Paper Buyer Companies Analysis

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

According to yTrade data, Indonesia's Uncoated paper buyers are dominated by a core group of loyal, high-volume partners. This segment accounts for 88.53% of total export value and 79.26% of order frequency, indicating stable, contract-based supply chains. Key accounts like BRIGHTENING SKY COMPANY LIMITED drive consistent bulk purchases, reflecting deeply embedded procurement relationships rather than spot-market trading.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

Sellers should prioritize relationship management with these high-volume repeaters, ensuring supply reliability and negotiating long-term agreements to lock in volume. Given the market’s reliance on a few major buyers, diversification into secondary clusters could mitigate concentration risk. Monitoring regulatory developments, such as the anti-dumping case highlighted in the DGTR Initiation Notification, is critical for navigating HS Code 4802 buyer trends and avoiding trade disruptions.

Table: Indonesia Uncoated Paper (HS Code 4802) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Uncoated Paper Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify buyer base: Mitigate reliance on Japan and core clients by targeting secondary markets like Vietnam and the Philippines, where demand is stable but underpenetrated.
• Lock in long-term contracts: Secure volume commitments from high-frequency buyers (79.26% order frequency) to stabilize revenue amid volatile shipment patterns.
• Optimize logistics: Focus on cost reduction for bulk paper exports (51.5% cut sheets, 19.9% rolls) to offset thin margins in this price-sensitive segment.
• Monitor trade policy: Track anti-dumping measures (e.g., India’s extended duties) to preempt market access shocks and adjust pricing strategies.
• Leverage premium niches: Capitalize on Japan’s higher-value demand (12.38% value share vs. 9.73% weight) by branding heavier-weight paper grades.

Take Action Now —— Explore Indonesia Uncoated paper HS Code 4802 Export Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Indonesia Uncoated paper Export in 2025?

The volatility in Indonesia's Uncoated paper exports is primarily driven by India's anti-dumping duties, causing a 20.9% drop in early 2025, followed by rebounds as exporters adjusted pricing and sought alternative markets.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Indonesia Uncoated paper (HS Code 4802) in 2025?

Japan dominates with 12.38% of export value, followed by the Philippines and Vietnam, which collectively account for over a quarter of Indonesia's Uncoated paper exports.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Indonesia Uncoated paper Export in 2025?

Price differences stem from product form variations, with cut sheets (51.5% of exports) commanding slight premiums over rolls or unspecified formats, reflecting basic cost-plus pricing rather than specialization.

Q4. What should exporters in Indonesia focus on in the current Uncoated paper export market?

Exporters should prioritize long-term contracts with high-volume buyers (88.53% of export value) while diversifying to secondary markets to mitigate reliance on Japan and other concentrated partners.

Q5. What does this Indonesia Uncoated paper export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable, consolidated supply chains but face exposure to Indonesia's trade policy risks, emphasizing the need for contingency planning amid anti-dumping measures.

Q6. How is Uncoated paper typically used in this trade flow?

The exported Uncoated paper is primarily used for printing, with cut sheets (435x297mm or smaller) being the dominant form, reflecting demand for standardized office and commercial applications.