Indonesia - Australia Trade 2025 Q3: Persistent Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Australia Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Australia remains structurally imbalanced, with Indonesia running a persistent trade deficit in 2025 Q3.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia’s trade deficit with Australia hit -$492.83M in July 2025, driven by imports ($812.48M) outweighing exports ($319.65M). Growth was flat YoY, signaling stagnant trade momentum.
- Exchange Structure: Indonesia - Australia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Indonesia supplies fertilizers (HS 31) and manufactured goods, while importing cereals (HS 10) and mineral fuels (HS 27) from Australia.
- Strategic Interdependence: Australia holds a higher-value position in energy and machinery, while Indonesia’s exports skew toward processed goods, reflecting asymmetric but mutually reliant trade ties.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Australia Trade Trend in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Australia
- Total Volume: $319.65M in July 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0.0%), indicating stagnant demand or stable trade terms. MoM dipped slightly (-0.72%), suggesting minor month-end adjustments.
- Key Volatility: No sharp MoM swings; July’s marginal decline points to steady but unremarkable activity.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Australia
- Total Volume: $812.48M in July 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY flat (0.0%) reflects unchanged import reliance. MoM dropped -6.9%, possibly due to inventory drawdowns or delayed shipments.
- Key Volatility: July’s MoM contraction is notable but lacks news-driven catalysts.
Indonesia - Australia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Trade deficit of -$492.83M (Exports $319.65M vs. Imports $812.48M).
- Relationship Status: Indonesia remains a net importer from Australia, with imports 2.5x exports, highlighting structural dependency on Australian goods.
Indonesia Import Trend from Australia 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 812.48M | -6.9% | 0.0% |
| Total | 812.48M | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Australia 2025 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 319.65M | -0.72% | 0.0% |
| Total | 319.65M | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Australia Trade Records
Indonesia-Australia Top Trading Products in Q3 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Australia
- Top Commodity: Fertilizers (HS 31) dominate exports, accounting for 14.24% of total value.
- Demand Driver: Australia likely imports these for agricultural production, indicating industrial use.
- Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but the top 3 exports (HS 31, 85, 48) collectively make up 28.46%.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Australia
- Top Commodity: Cereals (HS 10) lead imports with a 22.20% share, followed by mineral fuels (HS 27) at 19.50%.
- Dependency Nature: High reliance on Australian cereals and energy products suggests food and energy security dependencies.
Indonesia - Australia Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports fertilizers and manufactured goods (e.g., footwear, paper) while importing raw materials (cereals, minerals) and machinery.
- Value Chain Position: Australia holds a higher value-add position in energy (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84), while Indonesia’s exports skew toward lower-value processed goods.
Import Analysis by Product: Australia to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 180.36M | 22.20% |
| 27 | 158.42M | 19.50% |
| 26 | 67.26M | 8.28% |
| 01 | 50.85M | 6.26% |
| 02 | 50.81M | 6.25% |
| 74 | 40.73M | 5.01% |
| 52 | 38.41M | 4.73% |
| 84 | 28.85M | 3.55% |
| 25 | 24.53M | 3.02% |
| 17 | 24.42M | 3.01% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Australia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 45.53M | 14.24% |
| 85 | 27.69M | 8.66% |
| 48 | 17.79M | 5.56% |
| 84 | 16.64M | 5.21% |
| 64 | 16.26M | 5.09% |
| 44 | 16.19M | 5.06% |
| 62 | 15.42M | 4.82% |
| 18 | 14.77M | 4.62% |
| 28 | 14.61M | 4.57% |
| 19 | 8.61M | 2.69% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Australia Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Indonesia-Australia trade relationship is likely to remain stable but stagnant in the near term, with muted growth in both exports and imports. The flat YoY performance and recent MoM declines suggest a period of consolidation, driven by Indonesia’s persistent trade deficit and structural reliance on Australian cereals and energy. However, the complementary nature of the trade—fertilizers and manufactured goods for raw materials—provides a foundation for future growth if demand shifts or new agreements are struck. Traders should monitor Australia’s agricultural and energy sectors for signals of price volatility or supply chain disruptions.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Import Sources: Indonesia’s heavy dependence on Australian cereals (HS 10) and mineral fuels (HS 27) exposes it to supply risks. Buyers should explore alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or the Americas to mitigate concentration risk.
- Boost High-Value Exports: With fertilizers (HS 31) dominating exports, Indonesian producers should invest in upgrading product quality and branding to capture higher margins in Australia’s agricultural inputs market.
- Lock in Energy Contracts: Given the volatility in global energy markets, Indonesian importers should negotiate long-term contracts for Australian mineral fuels (HS 27) to stabilize costs and secure supply.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Australia trade perform in 2025 Q3?
Indonesia's exports to Australia totaled $319.65M in July 2025, with flat YoY growth, while imports from Australia reached $812.48M, showing a -6.9% MoM decline.
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Australia?
The top exports are Fertilizers (HS 31), followed by machinery (HS 85) and paper products (HS 48), collectively accounting for 28.46% of total exports.
What does Indonesia import from Australia?
Indonesia primarily imports Cereals (HS 10) and Mineral Fuels (HS 27), which make up 22.20% and 19.50% of total imports, respectively.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Australia?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of -$492.83M with Australia in July 2025, with imports 2.5x higher than exports.
Indonesia - Australia Trade 2025 Q2: Stagnation & Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Australia hit -$1.58B in Q2 2025, driven by resource-for-tech exchanges. Explore Indonesia Australia trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
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