Indonesia - Australia Trade 2025 Q2: Stagnation & Deficit
Key Market Takeaways: Indonesia - Australia Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Indonesia and Australia stagnated in Q2 2025, marked by volatile swings and a persistent deficit.
- Economic Pulse: Indonesia ran a -$1.58B trade deficit with Australia (exports: $875.55M, imports: $2.46B), with flat YoY growth in June after sharp declines in May.
- Exchange Structure: Bilateral trade data reveals resource-for-tech complementarity—Indonesia supplies electrical machinery (7.93% of exports) while relying on Australian mineral fuels (21.37% of imports) for energy security.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership leans on asymmetric dependency, with Australia holding higher value-add in energy exports and Indonesia supplying mid-tier manufactured goods.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Indonesia-Australia Trade Trend in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Performance: Shipments to Australia
- Total Volume: $875.55M in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth was flat (0.0%) in June, following a -16.6% YoY drop in May. No significant trade news to explain the volatility.
- Key Volatility: May saw a sharp 59.64% MoM surge, but exports dipped -5.41% MoM in June.
Indonesia Import Performance: Sourcing from Australia
- Total Volume: $2.46B in Q2 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth stagnated (0.0% in June) after a -24.89% YoY plunge in May. No relevant news to contextualize the swings.
- Key Volatility: Imports dropped -19.58% MoM in May but rebounded 23.36% MoM in June.
Indonesia - Australia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Indonesia ran a trade deficit of -$1.58B (Exports $875.55M vs. Imports $2.46B).
- Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Australian imports, with exports failing to offset the deficit.
Indonesia Import Trend from Australia 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 879.77M | 25.05% | 0.27% |
| May | 707.49M | -19.58% | -24.89% |
| Jun | 872.74M | 23.36% | 0.0% |
| Total | 2.46B | - | - |
Indonesia Export Trend to Australia 2025 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr | 213.22M | -29.52% | -38.65% |
| May | 340.37M | 59.64% | -16.6% |
| Jun | 321.96M | -5.41% | 0.0% |
| Total | 875.55M | - | - |
Get Historical Indonesia Australia Trade Records
Indonesia-Australia Top Trading Products in Q2 2025
Indonesia Export Profile: What Does Indonesia Sell to Australia
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery, equipment) at 7.93% of total exports to Australia.
- Demand Driver: Australia imports these for industrial and consumer use, likely for manufacturing or infrastructure projects.
- Concentration: No single category dominates; the top 10 exports are relatively diversified, with the highest share below 8%.
Indonesia Import Profile: What Does Indonesia Buy from Australia
- Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) at 21.37% of total imports from Australia.
- Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, as Indonesia relies on Australia for a significant portion of its fuel needs.
Indonesia - Australia Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Indonesia exports electrical machinery and industrial goods to Australia while importing energy and raw materials.
- Value Chain Position: Australia holds the higher value-add position in energy exports, while Indonesia supplies mid-tier manufactured goods. Trade leans toward a supplier-consumer dynamic rather than deep supply chain integration.
Import Analysis by Product: Australia to Indonesia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | 525.64M | 21.37% |
| 10 | 369.36M | 15.01% |
| 71 | 284.55M | 11.57% |
| 26 | 236.36M | 9.61% |
| 01 | 155.67M | 6.33% |
| 02 | 124.37M | 5.06% |
| 74 | 90.02M | 3.66% |
| 08 | 68.06M | 2.77% |
| 28 | 67.17M | 2.73% |
| 84 | 64.33M | 2.62% |
Export Analysis by Product: Indonesia to Australia (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 85 | 69.45M | 7.93% |
| 84 | 60.14M | 6.87% |
| 64 | 51.68M | 5.90% |
| 87 | 51.26M | 5.85% |
| 27 | 50.27M | 5.74% |
| 48 | 44.16M | 5.04% |
| 18 | 42.87M | 4.90% |
| 31 | 42.78M | 4.89% |
| 73 | 40.26M | 4.60% |
| 44 | 34.02M | 3.89% |
Check Detailed Indonesia-Australia Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Indonesia’s trade with Australia is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with the deficit persisting due to structural energy dependency and stagnant export growth. The erratic month-to-month swings in both exports and imports suggest underlying demand instability, possibly tied to fluctuating commodity prices or unrecorded supply chain disruptions. However, Australia’s continued role as a critical energy supplier and Indonesia’s mid-tier manufacturing exports could stabilize the relationship if both nations address pricing and logistics inefficiencies. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation rather than rapid expansion, with the Indonesia-Australia trade forecast hinging on energy market dynamics and export diversification efforts.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Energy Imports: Indonesia must reduce reliance on Australian mineral fuels by securing alternative suppliers or accelerating domestic energy transition projects to mitigate trade deficit risks.
- Boost High-Value Exports: Indonesian exporters should target Australia’s industrial and tech sectors with upgraded electrical machinery and components, leveraging existing demand while improving product competitiveness.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Both importers and exporters should negotiate fixed-price agreements for key commodities (e.g., mineral fuels, machinery) to hedge against volatile price swings and ensure supply chain stability.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Indonesia - Australia trade perform in 2025 Q2?
Indonesia's exports to Australia totaled $875.55M, with flat YoY growth (0.0%), while imports from Australia reached $2.46B, also showing stagnant YoY growth (0.0%).
What are the top exports from Indonesia to Australia?
The top export is HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery, equipment), accounting for 7.93% of total exports, followed by other diversified industrial and consumer goods.
What does Indonesia import from Australia?
The top import is HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils), making up 21.37% of total imports, reflecting Indonesia's energy dependency on Australia.
What is the trade balance between Indonesia and Australia?
Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of -$1.58B (exports $875.55M vs. imports $2.46B), indicating heavy reliance on Australian imports.
Indonesia - Australia Trade 2025 Q1: Widening Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Australia hit $1.08B in Q1 2025, driven by resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Australia trade trends & top trading products via yTrade data.
Indonesia - Australia Trade 2025 Q3: Persistent Deficit
Indonesia's trade deficit with Australia hits -$492.83M in Q3 2025, driven by resource-for-tech exchange. Explore Indonesia Australia trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
