Global Crude Oil Export 2025 Q1: Market Surge

Global Crude oil Export Market Landscape

In global trade, Crude oil is tracked under HS Code 2709, covering unrefined petroleum extracted from reserves. As the world’s most traded energy commodity, it serves as the foundational input for fuels, plastics, and chemicals, making its export flows critical to global industrial and consumer markets.

Strategic Insights

• Market Momentum: Q1 2025 saw volatile trade, with a mid-quarter dip followed by a sharp March rebound. Export value surged +19.13% to $157.29B USD, while volume grew +10.10% to 59.98B kg, signaling robust demand recovery.
• Geographic Power: Supply is monopolized by Kazakhstan (72.3% volume share), while demand is fragmented, led by India (41.73% value share). Central Asian and OPEC+ producers feed Asian and European markets, with pricing power heavily favoring exporters.
• Supply Chain Structure: Dominated by giants—29% of suppliers control 84.69% of export value. Buyers face reliance on few players like Saudi Aramco, with procurement skewed toward bulk deals (96.35% value share). Small, frequent shipments exist but are marginal.

Global Crude oil Export Trend in 2025 Q1

The global crude oil export market demonstrated notable volatility in Q1 2025, with a sharp mid-quarter dip followed by a robust recovery in March.

• Total export value reached $157.29B USD, driven by a significant +19.13% surge in March.
• Export volume grew steadily, increasing by +10.10% in March to 59.98B kg.

Table: Crude oil Export Trend in 2025 Q1

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Crude oil Global Market Structure: Supply vs. Demand

Top Exporters & Production Hubs

• Kazakhstan dominates supply, holding 72.3% of export quantity and 26.2% of export value. Its volume share exceeds 70%, indicating overwhelming control.
• Supply is highly consolidated: Top 3 exporters (Kazakhstan, Russia, Mexico) command over 90% of total export quantity. Market structure is monopolistic.
• Russia is the sole challenger, ranking #2 by value ($13.73B) but with minimal volume share (0.73%). No other exporter exceeds 20% in any key metric.

Top Importers & Consumption Markets

• India is the dominant buyer, accounting for 41.73% of import value ($54.69B) and 14.24% of weight. Nigeria and Italy trail as secondary buyers.
• Demand is fragmented: Top 3 importers hold ~56% of value share, contrasting sharply with supply consolidation.
• Mixed demand drivers: India’s massive imports suggest industrial processing needs. Italy (31.08% import quantity) and the US indicate consumer demand. Nigeria’s presence in both export/import lists hints at re-export activity.

Supply-Demand Dynamics

• Severe imbalance: Monopolistic supply (Kazakhstan) faces fragmented, multi-polar demand (India-led).
• Flow pattern: Central Asian and OPEC+ producers (Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, UAE) feed Asian (India) and European (Italy) markets, with minor flows to the Americas.
• Pricing power: Heavily favors Kazakhstan. Exporters control critical volume, forcing competitive bidding among diverse buyers.

Table: Global Crude oil Export —— Top Destination Countries

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Table: Global Crude oil Export —— Top origin Countries

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Global Crude oil Export Analysis: Key Suppliers & Buyers

Suppliers Concentration & Strategy

• Power Center: Highly Consolidated. Dominators (29% of suppliers) control 84.69% of total export value.
• Operational Style: Bulk dominates value (Dominators + Bulk Movers = 96.35% value share). High frequency shipments are common but low value (Low_Value_High_Frequency = 59.02% frequency, only 1.24% value).
• Risk/Opportunity: Buyers face heavy reliance on few giants like Saudi Aramco and Litasco. Limited options for large, secure volumes. Smaller, frequent shipments are available but insignificant for major procurement.

Oversea Buyers Procurement Patterns

• Procurement Behavior: Dominated by large stockpiling. Dominators (37.84% buyers, 76.55% value) and Bulk Movers (3.09% buyers, 20.20% value) drive the market through massive volume buys. Frequent small orders exist (54.17% frequency) but represent minimal volume (0.91%).
• Market Tier: Driven by global giants. A small group of major refiners/processors (e.g., Nghi Son, Petroperu) control the bulk of purchasing power and volume.

Market Entry & Negotiation Strategy

• New suppliers must target Dominator buyers to move volume. Expect tough terms and high competition.
• Bulk Mover buyers (e.g., INPEX, Binh Son) offer significant spot volume opportunities but require readiness for large, infrequent deals.
• New buyers seeking large volumes must negotiate with Dominator suppliers. Secure long-term contracts with key players like Saudi Aramco. Avoid relying on the fragmented low-value segment.
• Buyers needing small, frequent shipments can leverage the Low_Value_High_Frequency supplier cluster, but volumes are marginal.

Table: Global Crude oil Export —— Top Buyers

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Table: Global Crude oil Export —— Top Suppliers

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the HS Code for Crude oil?

The HS Code for Crude oil is 2709, covering petroleum oils and oils from bituminous minerals in their crude state.

Which country is the largest exporter of Crude oil in 2025 Q1?

KAZAKHSTAN is the top exporter, with $41.18B in value, dominating global supply.

Who are the top importers of Crude oil in 2025 Q1?

Leading importers are INDIA ($54.69B), NIGERIA ($9.84B), and ITALY ($9.48B), reflecting major consumption and refining hubs.

Who are the major suppliers and companies trading Crude oil in 2025 Q1?

Key players include suppliers ТОО ТЕНГИЗШЕВРОЙЛ ($20.53B) and buyers like TENGIZCHEVROIL INTERNATIONAL BERMUDA LIMITED ($12.91B).

Why do Crude oil import rankings sometimes differ from export destination lists?

Discrepancies arise from Trade Asymmetries: exports report FOB values (intended destination), while imports use CIF values (actual arrival). Trans-shipments via hubs also distort data.

How to find reliable Crude oil suppliers and exporters in 2025 Q1?

Use the yTrade database to access verified shipment records and supplier lists for HS Code 2709, focusing on key regions like KAZAKHSTAN.