Brazil - Russia Trade 2024 Q2: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Russia remains heavily skewed toward imports, with Brazil running a significant deficit in Q2 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $3.06B trade deficit with Russia in Q2 2024, driven by imports ($3.49B) dwarfing exports ($427.62M). While imports grew robustly YoY (23-42%), exports collapsed after an April surge, signaling volatility.
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource exchange—Brazil supplies agricultural commodities (48.8% soybeans) while relying on Russian energy (63.4% fuels) and fertilizers (30.3%).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership reflects asymmetric but critical complementarity, with Brazil dependent on Russian inputs for energy security and Russia sourcing key agricultural raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Russia Trade Trend in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $427.62M in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth peaked in April (+54.65%) but turned negative by June (-6.42%), signaling a sharp reversal.
  • May and June saw consecutive MoM declines (-15.16% and -31.82%, respectively), indicating weakening demand or competitive shifts.
• Key Volatility: April’s exports surged 198.86% MoM, but momentum collapsed thereafter.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $3.49B in Q2 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Sustained high YoY growth (23.51% to 41.89%) across all months, reflecting persistent reliance on Russian supplies.
  • May’s MoM spike (+24.21%) drove quarterly volumes, though June growth slowed to +3.04%.
• Key Volatility: May’s imports ($1.23B) marked the peak, accounting for 35% of Q2’s total.

Brazil - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $3.06B (Imports $3.49B vs. Exports $427.62M).
• Relationship Status: Brazil remains heavily import-dependent on Russia, with Q2 imports 8.2x higher than exports. No evidence of rebalancing.

Brazil Import Trend from Russia 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Russia 2024 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Russia Trade Records

Brazil-Russia Top Trading Products in Q2 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 12 (48.82% share), likely oilseeds and grains like soybeans.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these for industrial processing (e.g., animal feed, oil extraction).
• Concentration: High—top commodity alone holds 48.82%, with the top 3 categories (HS 12, 02, 09) covering 86.19% of exports.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 27 (63.42% share), primarily mineral fuels (e.g., crude oil, refined petroleum).
• Dependency Nature: Reflects energy security dependency, as Russia supplies critical fuel inputs.
• Concentration: Extreme—HS 27 and 31 (fertilizers) account for 93.73% of imports, indicating narrow supplier reliance.

Brazil - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Brazil supplies agricultural raw materials (HS 12, 02) in return for Russian energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds higher value-add in exports (processed fuels/fertilizers vs. Brazil’s bulk agricultural commodities). Trade is asymmetric but mutually dependent.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Brazil-Russia trade relationship is likely to remain volatile but structurally entrenched in the near term. Brazil’s heavy reliance on Russian energy (HS 27) and fertilizers (HS 31) will sustain the deficit, while agricultural exports (HS 12) face demand uncertainty after Q2’s sharp decline. Expect Russia to leverage its value-chain dominance, keeping Brazil locked into an asymmetric exchange unless diversification efforts accelerate. Traders should brace for price swings in key commodities, particularly if geopolitical or logistical disruptions emerge.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Energy Imports: Brazil must reduce dependency on Russian fuels by fast-tracking deals with alternative suppliers (e.g., Middle East, Africa) and investing in domestic renewable capacity.
• Lock In Agricultural Contracts: Exporters of soybeans and grains should secure long-term agreements with Russian processors to stabilize revenue amid erratic demand shifts.
• Push for Higher-Value Exports: Brazil should incentivize processed food and manufactured goods (e.g., machinery, biofuels) to counterbalance the low-margin bulk commodity trade with Russia.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Russia trade perform in 2024 Q2?

Brazil's exports to Russia totaled $427.62M, showing volatile growth (peaking in April but declining by June), while imports from Russia surged to $3.49B, driven by energy and fertilizer demand.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Russia?

Brazil's top exports to Russia are oilseeds and grains (HS Code 12), followed by animal products (HS 02) and other agricultural commodities, accounting for 86.19% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Russia?

Brazil primarily imports mineral fuels (HS Code 27) and fertilizers (HS 31) from Russia, which together make up 93.73% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Russia?

Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $3.06B with Russia in Q2 2024, as imports ($3.49B) far exceeded exports ($427.62M). The gap remains significant with no signs of rebalancing.