Brazil - Russia Trade 2024 Q1: Lopsided Energy Dependency

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Russia remains heavily skewed toward imports, with no rebalancing in sight.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Brazil’s $2.33B Q1 2024 trade deficit with Russia (imports 14.8x exports) reflects persistent energy dependency amid volatile agricultural exports.
• Resource-for-Energy Exchange: Brazil - Russia trade statistics show a lopsided exchange—Brazil ships meat and oilseeds (80% of exports) while relying on Russian mineral fuels (67% of imports).
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Russia holds the strategic upper hand as Brazil’s critical energy supplier, while Brazilian exports face steep YoY declines.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Russia Trade Trend in Q1 2024

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $168.58M in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines persisted across all months, with March (-66.03%) marking the sharpest drop.
  • February saw the worst MoM contraction (-39.59%), while March rebounded with a 42.81% MoM surge.
• Key Volatility: Exports swung from $68.34M (January) to a low of $41.29M (February) before partial recovery.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $2.50B in Q1 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth turned negative in March (+6.39% YoY, down from +59.29% in January).
  • January’s MoM plunge (-48.75%) was offset by March’s 14.17% rebound.
• Key Volatility: Imports peaked at $876.08M in March after a $767.36M dip in February.

Brazil - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $2.33B (Imports exceeded exports by 14.8x).
• Relationship Status: Brazil remains heavily import-dependent on Russia, with no signs of rebalancing.

Brazil Import Trend from Russia 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Russia 2024 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Russia Trade Records

Brazil-Russia Top Trading Products in Q1 2024

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) with a 37.25% share.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports these primarily for consumer market needs, indicating strong demand for Brazilian meat products.
• Concentration: The top three exports (HS 02, 12, 09) account for 80.27% of total exports, showing high trade concentration in agricultural goods.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and related products) with a 66.56% share.
• Dependency Nature: Brazil relies heavily on Russian energy exports, reflecting a raw material dependency for fuel supply.

Brazil - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Brazil exports agricultural goods (meat, oilseeds) while importing energy (mineral fuels) from Russia.
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position in energy exports, while Brazil’s exports are primarily low-margin agricultural commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil-Russia Trade

Brazil’s trade deficit with Russia is expected to persist in Q2 2024, driven by continued reliance on Russian energy imports (HS 27) and volatile demand for Brazilian agricultural exports (HS 02). The sharp YoY declines in exports suggest weakening Russian consumer demand, while import growth may stabilize as Brazil’s energy needs remain steady. Without structural shifts, the trade imbalance will likely deepen, exposing Brazilian importers to price volatility in global energy markets. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation rather than expansion.

Strategic Moves for Brazilian Stakeholders

• Diversify Energy Suppliers: Reduce dependency on Russian mineral fuels by accelerating negotiations with alternative suppliers in the Middle East or North America.
• Expand Export Markets for Meat Products: Mitigate reliance on Russia by targeting new buyers in Asia (e.g., China, ASEAN) where demand for Brazilian meat is rising.
• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for Critical Imports: Secure fixed-price agreements for Russian energy shipments to hedge against potential supply disruptions or price spikes.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Russia trade perform in 2024 Q1?

Brazil's exports to Russia totaled $168.58M, showing YoY declines, while imports from Russia reached $2.50B, with mixed growth trends.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Russia?

The top exports are HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal), HS 12 (Oilseeds), and HS 09 (Coffee, tea, and spices), accounting for 80.27% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from Russia?

Brazil primarily imports HS 27 (Mineral fuels, oils, and related products) from Russia, making up 66.56% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Russia?

Brazil recorded a trade deficit of $2.33B with Russia, as imports exceeded exports by 14.8x in Q1 2024.