Brazil - Mexico Trade 2023 Q3: $870M Surplus & Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mexico Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mexico shows Brazil as a net exporter with strong YoY growth in Q3 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $870M trade surplus with Mexico ($2.25B exports vs. $1.38B imports), driven by consistent YoY export growth (+32.84% in July).
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - Mexico trade statistics reveal intra-industry dominance, with vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84, 85) flowing both ways, alongside Brazilian cereals and Mexican high-tech goods.
• Strategic Interdependence: Deep supply chain integration in automotive and manufacturing, with Mexico holding a slight edge in tech exports (HS 90) and Brazil supplying raw materials.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Mexico Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mexico

• Total Volume: Brazil exported $2.25B worth of goods to Mexico in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Exports grew YoY in all months (Jul: +32.84%, Aug: +17.28%, Sep: +14.09%), despite no specific trade news. The strong performance suggests sustained demand or competitive pricing.
• Key Volatility: August saw a sharp 24.24% MoM surge, followed by a steep -22.09% MoM drop in September, indicating potential order timing shifts or supply chain adjustments.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mexico

• Total Volume: Brazil imported $1.38B from Mexico in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Imports declined YoY across all months (Jul: -12.92%, Aug: -17.87%, Sep: -15.16%), reflecting reduced demand or diversification of suppliers. No news context to explain the trend.
• Key Volatility: August posted a 14.61% MoM rebound after a -1.68% dip in July, but the overall quarterly trend remained subdued.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $870M with Mexico (Exports: $2.25B > Imports: $1.38B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a clear net exporter role, with exports outpacing imports by 63% in Q3. The consistent YoY export growth underscores Mexico’s reliance on Brazilian goods.

Brazil Import Trend from Mexico 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Mexico 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Mexico Trade Records

Brazil-Mexico Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 23.28% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Mexico imports Brazilian vehicles for its consumer market and potential industrial integration (e.g., auto parts for assembly).
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but HS 87, 84, and 10 collectively make up 48.6%, indicating moderate concentration in machinery, vehicles, and cereals.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) also lead imports at 29.78%, reflecting reciprocal trade in the automotive sector.
• Dependency Nature: High-tech and machinery (HS 84, 85, 90) comprise 38.72% of imports, suggesting critical technology and industrial input dependency.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade dominates, with both countries exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84, 85). This indicates deep supply chain integration, likely in automotive and manufacturing sectors.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a slight edge in higher-value tech exports (e.g., HS 90 instruments at 8.08% vs. Brazil’s absence in this category), but Brazil counters with raw materials (HS 10 cereals, HS 26 ores).

Import Analysis by Product: Mexico to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Mexico Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade surplus with Mexico is expected to widen in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for Brazilian vehicles (HS 87) and cereals (HS 10). The intra-industry trade model suggests deeper supply chain integration, particularly in the automotive sector, but exporters should prepare for potential volatility due to order timing shifts. Mexico’s reliance on Brazilian goods and Brazil’s growing appetite for Mexican high-tech imports will likely reinforce this bilateral trade relationship, though traders must monitor currency fluctuations and supply chain bottlenecks.

Strategic Moves

• Expand Automotive Sector Partnerships: Brazilian vehicle exporters should secure long-term contracts with Mexican buyers to stabilize revenue streams and mitigate month-to-month volatility.
• Diversify High-Tech Imports: Brazilian manufacturers dependent on Mexican machinery (HS 84, 85) must explore alternative suppliers in Asia or Europe to reduce overreliance and hedge against supply chain disruptions.
• Optimize Logistics for Cereal Exports: Given the seasonal nature of agricultural trade, Brazilian cereal exporters should invest in streamlined shipping routes and storage solutions to capitalize on Mexico’s steady demand.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Mexico trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Brazil's exports to Mexico grew YoY (+32.84% in July, +17.28% in August, +14.09% in September), totaling $2.25B, while imports declined YoY (-12.92% in July, -17.87% in August, -15.16% in September), totaling $1.38B.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Mexico?

The top exports are vehicles (HS 87), machinery (HS 84), and cereals (HS 10), collectively accounting for 48.6% of total export value.

What does Brazil import from Mexico?

Brazil primarily imports vehicles (HS 87), high-tech machinery (HS 84, 85), and instruments (HS 90), with these categories making up 38.72% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mexico?

Brazil recorded a trade surplus of $870M with Mexico in Q3 2023, with exports ($2.25B) exceeding imports ($1.38B) by 63%.