Brazil - Mexico Trade 2023 Q1: Robust Growth & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - Mexico Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and Mexico shows robust growth with volatility in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil holds a $220M surplus, exporting $1.71B to Mexico (+33.59% YoY) while importing $1.49B (+41.81% YoY). Momentum slowed post-January, with volatile monthly swings.
• Exchange Structure: Intra-industry trade dominates, with both countries exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84/85). Brazil also supplies agricultural goods, while Mexico exports higher-value tech (HS 90).
• Strategic Interdependence: Deep supply chain integration, particularly in auto manufacturing, with Mexico holding a slight edge in tech inputs.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-Mexico Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to Mexico

• Total Volume: $1.71B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained robust, averaging 33.59% across the quarter, peaking at +53.97% in January.
  • Momentum slowed post-January, with MoM growth tapering to +10.48% by March.
• Key Volatility: February saw a sharp MoM rebound (+14.42%) after January’s -19.69% contraction.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from Mexico

• Total Volume: $1.49B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth averaged 41.81%, driven by a +63.16% surge in January.
  • Volatile MoM swings: February dropped -26.44%, then March rebounded +51.87%.
• Key Volatility: March was the peak month ($584.53M), while February hit the lowest ($384.89M).

Brazil - Mexico Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: $220M surplus for Brazil (Exports: $1.71B > Imports: $1.49B).
• Relationship Status: Brazil maintains a net exporter role, though import volatility suggests fluctuating demand for Mexican goods.

Brazil Import Trend from Mexico 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to Mexico 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil Mexico Trade Records

Brazil-Mexico Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) dominate exports, accounting for 23.27% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Mexico imports Brazilian vehicles and machinery (HS 84, 15.02%) for industrial and consumer markets. Agricultural goods (HS 10, 7.71%) and meat (HS 02, 6.78%) suggest food supply needs.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but HS 87 and HS 84 combined make up 38.29%, indicating moderate reliance on transport and machinery.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from Mexico

• Top Commodity: Vehicles (HS 87) also lead imports at 26.76%, mirroring the export structure.
• Dependency Nature: High-tech machinery (HS 84, 13.47%) and optical/medical equipment (HS 90, 7.31%) point to technology reliance. Rubber (HS 40) and aluminum (HS 76) hint at industrial input needs.

Brazil - Mexico Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Intra-Industry Trade dominates, with both countries exchanging vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84/85). This reflects deep supply chain integration, likely in auto manufacturing.
• Value Chain Position: Mexico holds a slight edge in higher-value tech (HS 90 imports), while Brazil leans on raw materials (HS 26, 5.54% exports). Trade is balanced but skewed toward Mexican tech inputs.

Import Analysis by Product: Mexico to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to Mexico (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-Mexico Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Brazil’s trade surplus with Mexico is expected to hold steady in Q2 2023, supported by sustained demand for vehicles (HS 87) and machinery (HS 84/85). However, the tapering YoY growth in exports and volatile import swings suggest potential headwinds, particularly in supply chain disruptions or shifting industrial demand. The intra-industry trade model will likely deepen, but exporters should prepare for tighter margins if Mexican tech imports (HS 90) gain further traction. Brazil - Mexico trade forecast hinges on stabilizing MoM volatility while capitalizing on mutual supply chain dependencies.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Mix: Brazil must reduce reliance on vehicles (HS 87) by pushing agricultural (HS 10) and meat (HS 02) exports, where Mexico shows consistent demand.
• Lock in Tech Imports: Given Mexico’s edge in high-value machinery (HS 84/90), Brazilian manufacturers should secure long-term contracts to mitigate price fluctuations.
• Optimize Auto Sector Logistics: With both nations exchanging vehicles, streamlining cross-border JIT inventory systems will cut costs and reduce February-style import drops.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - Mexico trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Brazil's exports to Mexico grew 33.59% YoY to $1.71B, while imports surged 41.81% to $1.49B, with volatile monthly swings in both directions.

What are the top exports from Brazil to Mexico?

Vehicles (HS 87) dominate at 23.27%, followed by machinery (HS 84, 15.02%) and agricultural goods like cereals (HS 10) and meat (HS 02).

What does Brazil import from Mexico?

Vehicles (HS 87, 26.76%) lead, alongside high-tech machinery (HS 84, 13.47%) and optical/medical equipment (HS 90, 7.31%), reflecting industrial and tech reliance.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and Mexico?

Brazil maintained a $220M surplus in Q1 2023, though import volatility suggests fluctuating demand for Mexican goods.