Brazil - India Trade 2023 Q4: Deficit Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - India Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and India contracted sharply in Q4 2023, with declining volumes on both sides.

• Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $290M trade deficit with India, as imports ($1.51B) outpaced exports ($1.22B). Both flows saw steep YoY declines, signaling weakening demand.
• Exchange Structure: Brazil - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies sugar (48% of exports) while India dominates with organic chemicals (24% of imports) and machinery.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains lopsided; India holds the high-value position in critical supply chains, while Brazil’s reliance on commodity exports leaves it vulnerable to price swings.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Brazil-India Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to India

• Total Volume: $1.22B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months, ranging from -27.98% (Dec) to -41.66% (Oct).
  • No specific trade news to explain the contraction.
• Key Volatility: December saw a sharp MoM rebound (+39.79%) after two months of decline, though still down YoY.

Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from India

• Total Volume: $1.51B in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Steep YoY drops worsened sequentially, from -24.37% (Oct) to -53.25% (Dec).
• Key Volatility: December recorded the lowest monthly value ($450.99M) and sharpest MoM drop (-10.47%).

Brazil - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Brazil ran a trade deficit of -$290M (Imports > Exports).
• Relationship Status: Declining bilateral trade volumes, with Brazil’s import reliance on India shrinking faster than exports.

Brazil Import Trend from India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Brazil Export Trend to India 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Brazil India Trade Records

Brazil-India Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to India

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 17 (Sugars and sugar confectionery) at 47.90% of total exports to India.
• Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing (e.g., food manufacturing) and domestic consumption.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with HS 17 alone accounting for nearly half of exports.

Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from India

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 29 (Organic chemicals) at 24.24% of total imports from India.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects a critical technology dependency, as organic chemicals are essential for pharmaceuticals and industrial applications.

Brazil - India Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil exports raw materials (sugar, fuels) while importing high-value chemicals and machinery from India.
• Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced chemicals (HS 29, 30) and machinery (HS 84, 85), while Brazil primarily provides commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: India to Brazil (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to India (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Brazil-India Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast for Brazil-India Trade

The Brazil-India trade relationship is likely to face continued contraction in the near term, given the persistent YoY declines in both exports and imports. Brazil’s heavy reliance on sugar exports (HS 17) to India—nearly half of total shipments—leaves it vulnerable to demand fluctuations, while India’s shrinking purchases of Brazilian commodities signal weakening industrial demand. Meanwhile, Brazil’s critical dependency on Indian organic chemicals (HS 29) for pharmaceuticals and manufacturing suggests that any further import decline could disrupt supply chains. Traders should brace for volatility, with a potential stabilization only possible if India’s industrial activity rebounds or Brazil diversifies its export basket.

Strategic Moves for Traders & Policymakers

• Diversify Export Markets for Sugar: Brazilian sugar exporters must reduce overreliance on India by targeting emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Africa, where demand for raw sugar is rising.
• Secure Long-Term Contracts for Critical Chemicals: Brazilian importers of Indian organic chemicals (HS 29) should lock in multi-year supply agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure stable access to essential inputs.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Brazil should shift from raw sugar exports to refined or specialty sugar products to capture higher margins and reduce exposure to commodity price swings.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Brazil - India trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Brazil-India trade declined in Q4 2023, with exports at $1.22B (YoY drop) and imports at $1.51B (steep YoY falls).

What are the top exports from Brazil to India?

Brazil’s top export to India is HS 17 (Sugars and sugar confectionery), accounting for 47.90% of total exports.

What does Brazil import from India?

Brazil’s top import from India is HS 29 (Organic chemicals), making up 24.24% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Brazil and India?

Brazil recorded a trade deficit of -$290M with India in Q4 2023, with imports declining faster than exports.