Brazil - India Trade 2023 Q3: Sharp Decline
Key Market Takeaways: Brazil - India Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Brazil and India weakened in Q3 2023, with declining volumes on both sides.
- Economic Pulse: Brazil posted a $610M trade deficit with India ($1.86B imports vs. $1.25B exports), as both exports (-19% to -53% YoY) and imports (-37% to -53% YoY) contracted sharply.
- Exchange Structure: Brazil - India trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech complementarity—Brazil supplies raw materials (sugar, vegetable oils) while India exports high-value chemicals and machinery.
- Strategic Interdependence: The partnership remains structurally imbalanced, with India holding the higher value-add position in the exchange.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Brazil-India Trade Trend in Q3 2023
Brazil Export Performance: Shipments to India
- Total Volume: $1.25B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted across all months, with July (-38.55%) and September (-19.23%) showing sharp contractions. August’s YoY drop moderated to -2.53%.
- No specific trade news to explain the trend.
- Key Volatility: August saw a 38.77% MoM surge, but gains reversed in September (-5.26%).
Brazil Import Performance: Sourcing from India
- Total Volume: $1.86B in Q3 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines deepened, with September imports halving (-52.9%) year-on-year. August’s -36.89% YoY drop was the least severe.
- No relevant news to contextualize the slump.
- Key Volatility: August posted a 24.68% MoM rebound, but September collapsed (-22.89% MoM).
Brazil - India Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Brazil ran a $610M trade deficit with India (Imports $1.86B > Exports $1.25B).
- Relationship Status: Brazil remains a net importer, with dependence on Indian goods intensifying despite shrinking volumes on both sides.
Brazil Import Trend from India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 579.85M | -13.35% | -15.65% |
| Aug | 722.98M | 24.68% | -36.89% |
| Sep | 557.50M | -22.89% | -52.9% |
| Total | 1.86B | - | - |
Brazil Export Trend to India 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul | 337.16M | -25.36% | -38.55% |
| Aug | 467.88M | 38.77% | -2.53% |
| Sep | 443.26M | -5.26% | -19.23% |
| Total | 1.25B | - | - |
Get Historical Brazil India Trade Records
Brazil-India Top Trading Products in Q3 2023
Brazil Export Profile: What Does Brazil Sell to India
- Top Commodity: Sugar (HS 17) dominates at 25.97% of exports.
- Demand Driver: India uses these for industrial processing (raw materials like sugar and vegetable oils).
- Concentration: Nearly 49% of exports are concentrated in sugar and vegetable oils (HS 15 + HS 17).
Brazil Import Profile: What Does Brazil Buy from India
- Top Commodity: Organic chemicals (HS 29) lead at 21.18% of imports.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency (pharmaceuticals, machinery, and chemicals dominate imports).
Brazil - India Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Brazil sends raw materials (sugar, oils, ores) while India supplies high-value chemicals and machinery.
- Value Chain Position: India holds the higher value-add position, exporting complex goods (pharmaceuticals, machinery) versus Brazil’s commodity-heavy exports.
Import Analysis by Product: India to Brazil (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | 393.96M | 21.18% |
| 27 | 243.60M | 13.09% |
| 84 | 226.71M | 12.19% |
| 38 | 184.43M | 9.91% |
| 30 | 143.92M | 7.74% |
| 87 | 96.18M | 5.17% |
| 85 | 58.84M | 3.16% |
| 40 | 55.43M | 2.98% |
| 72 | 46.28M | 2.49% |
| 73 | 45.02M | 2.42% |
Export Analysis by Product: Brazil to India (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 324.15M | 25.97% |
| 15 | 284.92M | 22.82% |
| 27 | 200.67M | 16.08% |
| 71 | 107.38M | 8.60% |
| 72 | 65.98M | 5.29% |
| 12 | 42.31M | 3.39% |
| 84 | 34.13M | 2.73% |
| 07 | 26.04M | 2.09% |
| 25 | 22.40M | 1.79% |
| 44 | 21.39M | 1.71% |
Check Detailed Brazil-India Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Brazil-India trade relationship faces near-term headwinds, with both exports and imports likely to remain under pressure in Q4 2023. The persistent YoY declines in Brazil’s sugar and vegetable oil shipments to India suggest weakening demand or competitive displacement, while India’s shrinking exports of high-value chemicals and machinery indicate broader supply chain adjustments. However, the structural complementarity—Brazil’s raw materials for India’s tech-driven goods—creates a foundation for recovery once global demand stabilizes. Traders should prepare for volatility but watch for opportunistic rebounds in key commodities like sugar and organic chemicals.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Brazilian sugar and vegetable oil exporters must reduce reliance on India by targeting alternative buyers in Southeast Asia or the Middle East to mitigate demand shocks.
- Lock in Long-Term Contracts: Indian pharmaceutical and chemical suppliers should secure multi-year agreements with Brazilian buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid fluctuating trade volumes.
- Invest in Value-Added Processing: Brazil should prioritize upgrading its raw material exports (e.g., refining sugar or oils domestically) to capture more value and reduce the trade deficit with India.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Brazil - India trade perform in 2023 Q3?
Brazil's exports to India totaled $1.25B, with YoY declines across all months. Imports from India stood at $1.86B, also showing significant YoY drops.
What are the top exports from Brazil to India?
Sugar (HS 17) and vegetable oils (HS 15) dominate, accounting for nearly 49% of Brazil's exports to India.
What does Brazil import from India?
Organic chemicals (HS 29) lead Brazil's imports from India, followed by pharmaceuticals and machinery, reflecting a tech-driven dependency.
What is the trade balance between Brazil and India?
Brazil recorded a $610M trade deficit with India in Q3 2023, as imports ($1.86B) exceeded exports ($1.25B).
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