Botswana Cigarettes Import Market -- HS Code 2402 Trade Data & Price Trend (Q3 2025)

Botswana Cigarettes Import (HS 2402) Key Takeaways

Botswana's Cigarettes Import market in Q3 2025 was dominated by low-cost, mass-market cigarettes (HS Code 24022090), with a niche for premium cigars, reflecting a bifurcated product landscape. The market showed resilience after April's U.S. tariff-induced disruption, with import values recovering to $1.88M despite volatile unit prices. Supply chain risk is extreme, with 99% of imports controlled by a handful of South African manufacturers, leaving Botswana vulnerable to single-source disruptions. This analysis, covering Q3 2025, is based on cleanly processed Customs data from the yTrade database.

Botswana Cigarettes Import (HS 2402) Background

What is HS Code 2402?

HS Code 2402 covers cigars, cigarettes, and tobacco substitutes, primarily used by the tobacco industry for consumer products. Global demand remains stable due to entrenched consumption patterns, despite health regulations. This category is significant for trade analysis due to its high volume and regulatory scrutiny.

Current Context and Strategic Position

The United States increased additional duties on all imports from Botswana to 37% effective April 2025 [Global Trade Alert], directly impacting Botswana's cigarettes export dynamics. Botswana's strategic role in HS Code 2402 trade data stems from its production capacity and regional trade partnerships. The heightened tariffs underscore the need for vigilance in monitoring Botswana's cigarettes import flows, particularly for markets with shifting trade policies. This development highlights the importance of real-time trade data to navigate evolving regulatory landscapes.

Botswana Cigarettes Import (HS 2402) Price Trend

Key Observations

In Q3 2025, Botswana's cigarette imports showed resilience with a total value of approximately 1.88 million USD, though unit prices were volatile, ranging from $43.81 to $51.72 per kg. This period followed a significant disruption earlier in the year, reflecting a partial recovery in trade flows.

Price and Volume Dynamics

The Botswana Cigarettes Import trend exhibited sharp volatility starting in April, when import value plummeted to just $51.43K amid a unit price spike to $77.62/kg, likely triggered by the U.S. duty increase to 37% on all imports from Botswana effective April 9, 2025, which introduced trade uncertainties and potential economic ripple effects [Global Trade Alert]. Sequential recovery began in May, with import value rising to $561.31K, and continued into Q3, where August saw a peak of $823.15K despite lower unit prices, indicating renewed import momentum and possible inventory adjustments ahead of seasonal demand cycles. The hs code 2402 value trend underscores a market adapting to external shocks, with Q3's fluctuations reflecting ongoing adjustments to policy-induced disruptions.

Botswana Cigarettes Import (HS 2402) HS Code Breakdown

Product Specialization and Concentration

According to yTrade data for Botswana's HS Code 2402 Import in Q3 2025, the market is overwhelmingly dominated by standard cigarettes under sub-code 24022090, which accounts for nearly all import volume and value. This product, described as "Cigarettes; containing tobacco," has a low unit price of 0.18 USD per unit, indicating a focus on mass-market, low-cost offerings. Anomalies like high-priced cigarette variants (e.g., 24022010 at 273.45 USD per unit) are isolated due to minimal quantities and do not influence the main market dynamics.

Value-Chain Structure and Grade Analysis

The non-anomalous imports can be grouped into two categories: low-priced cigarettes (24022090) and higher-value cigars and cigarillos (24021090). The dominance of low-priced cigarettes suggests a trade in relatively fungible, bulk commodities where price competition is key, while the presence of cigars with a unit price of 81.64 USD per unit indicates a niche for differentiated, premium products. This structure points to a market split between standardized mass consumption and specialized, value-added goods.

Strategic Implication and Pricing Power

For importers, the heavy reliance on low-priced cigarettes under Botswana HS Code 2402 Import limits pricing power and emphasizes cost efficiency and volume scaling. However, opportunities exist in premium segments like cigars, where higher margins may be achievable. Analyzing HS Code 2402 trade data reveals that strategic focus should balance mainstream efficiency with targeted investments in higher-grade offerings to capture value in a bifurcated market.

Table: Botswana HS Code 2402) Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 2402 Breakdown

Botswana Cigarettes Import (HS 2402) Origin Countries

Geographic Concentration and Dominant Role

SOUTH AFRICA dominates Botswana's Cigarettes import market for Q3 2025. It accounts for 99.48% of total import value while supplying 99.51% of the quantity. This close alignment between value and volume shares shows a stable supply of standard-grade products. SOUTH AFRICA's 97.67% shipment frequency confirms its role as the primary, regular supplier. The minimal presence of other countries, including a small quantity from BOTSWANA itself, indicates almost complete dependency on this single origin for HS Code 2402 goods.

Origin Countries Clusters and Underlying Causes

The remaining trade splits into two clear clusters. SWITZERLAND forms a "High-Yield Cluster," with a value share (0.42%) that is significantly larger than its negligible quantity share. This suggests very limited imports of premium, higher-priced cigarettes from Switzerland. All other partners, including CUBA, BOTSWANA, and NICARAGUA, form a "Niche/Transactional Cluster." Their minimal and infrequent shipments represent small, experimental, or returned goods, with the BOTSWANA entry likely indicating re-imports of previously exported products.

Forward Strategy and Supply Chain Implications

Botswana's Cigarettes supply chain is highly vulnerable due to its extreme reliance on SOUTH AFRICA. Any disruption to production or cross-border logistics from this single source would severely impact market supply. A forward strategy must prioritize diversifying its import origins to mitigate this concentration risk. Exploring potential suppliers within other regional blocs could build a more resilient supply chain for HS Code 2402 products and reduce dependency on one dominant partner.

Table: Botswana Cigarettes (HS 2402) Top Origin Countries (Source: yTrade)

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Botswana Cigarettes (HS 2402) Suppliers Analysis

Supplier Concentration and Dominance

According to yTrade data, the 2025 Q3 market for Botswana's Cigarettes Import suppliers was extremely concentrated. A single group of high-volume, high-value suppliers handled over 99% of the total import value. This means the typical trade involved large, regular shipments from a very small number of key sources.

Strategic Supplier Clusters and Trade Role

The profile of HS code 2402 suppliers indicates a direct-to-factory market. The dominant companies are major manufacturers, not trading firms. The only other active group consisted of low-volume, high-frequency suppliers, which contributed a minimal share of the total value and likely represented smaller, secondary retail or distribution channels.

Sourcing Strategy and Vulnerability

Botswana's heavy reliance on a few large manufacturers creates significant supply chain risk. Any disruption to these key partners would severely impact product availability. This risk is heightened by external policy shifts. For example, the [United States increased tariffs on all imports from Botswana to 37% in April 2025], which could complicate logistics and increase costs if shipments are routed through or contain U.S. components. Diversifying the supplier base is a critical strategic priority.

Table: Botswana Cigarettes (HS 2402) Top Suppliers List (Source: yTrade)

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Action Plan for Cigarettes Market Operation and Expansion

• Diversify import origins beyond South Africa using hs code 2402 trade data to identify new regional suppliers, mitigating extreme supply chain vulnerability for Botswana's Cigarettes Import.
• Develop a targeted strategy for premium cigar and cigarillo imports to capture higher margins, using trade data to identify niche opportunities within the broader market.
• Continuously monitor the shipment frequency and volume of the dominant high-volume suppliers to anticipate and plan for potential disruptions to the Cigarettes supply chain.
• Analyze detailed shipment data to optimize logistics and inventory cycles, preventing overstock and reducing costs for Botswana's Cigarettes Import operations.

Take Action Now —— Explore Botswana Cigarettes Import Data

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Botswana Cigarettes Import 2025 Q3?

Botswana's cigarette imports in Q3 2025 show recovery after a sharp drop in April due to a U.S. tariff hike, with August peaking at $823.15K. Volatility reflects ongoing adjustments to policy disruptions and potential inventory rebuilding.

Q2. Who are the main origin countries of Botswana Cigarettes (HS Code 2402) 2025 Q3?

South Africa dominates with 99.48% of import value, while Switzerland (0.42%) and others like Cuba and Botswana contribute minimally as niche suppliers.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across origin countries of Botswana Cigarettes Import?

Prices vary due to product specialization: low-cost cigarettes (24022090 at $0.18/unit) dominate from South Africa, while Switzerland supplies premium cigars (24021090 at $81.64/unit).

Q4. What should importers in Botswana focus on when buying Cigarettes?

Importers must balance cost-efficient bulk purchases of standard cigarettes with targeted premium cigar investments, while diversifying suppliers to reduce reliance on South Africa.

Q5. What does this Botswana Cigarettes import pattern mean for overseas suppliers?

Suppliers face a bifurcated market: South African manufacturers dominate volume, while niche players like Switzerland can exploit premium gaps, though demand remains limited.

Q6. How is Cigarettes typically used in this trade flow?

Imports are primarily mass-market, low-cost cigarettes for broad consumption, with a minor segment of high-value cigars catering to specialized demand.

Detailed Monthly Report

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