2025 Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export: Volatile Surge

Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export Key Takeaways

Sunflower Oil, classified under HS Code 1512, experienced extreme volatility driven by opportunistic trade surges from January to December 2025.

• Market Pulse (Trend): A 900% MoM spike in September 2025 collapsed by -64.5% by December, revealing arbitrage-driven volatility rather than sustained demand.
• Structural Pivot (Geography/Company): Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export reliance on Ecuador (70.84% of value) and two key buyers (Louis Dreyfus & ADM) creates high counterparty risk.
• Grade Analysis (HS Code): HS Code 1512 trade data confirms a commodity-grade market, with crude sunflower oil (79% of volume) dominating and minimal value-added refining.

This overview covers the period from January to December 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Expert Note: A Market Built on Sand, Not Stone

Expert Commentary: Bolivia’s sunflower oil trade is a textbook case of short-term opportunism—exploiting global supply gaps without the infrastructure or diversification to sustain it. The extreme buyer and geographic concentration means any shock to Ecuador or a single contract partner could crater export revenue overnight.

Strategic Action Plan

• Diversify buyer exposure: Target secondary markets like Colombia and Peru to reduce reliance on Ecuador’s 70% share.
• Lock in Q3 2026 logistics now: The 2025 surge suggests recurring arbitrage windows; pre-book freight to avoid bottlenecks.
• Audit key account contracts: With 93% of exports tied to two firms, ensure fallback clauses exist to mitigate counterparty risk.
• Monitor Black Sea disruptions: Any new supply shocks will trigger another opportunistic spike—position early to capitalize.
• Explore refining partnerships: The narrow crude-refined price gap suggests untapped margin potential if Bolivia can process more domestically.

Bolivia's Sunflower Oil Exports Reveal Volatile Arbitrage, Not Structural Growth

Q3 Surge Collapses into Year-End Contraction

• Bolivia's sunflower oil export trend in 2025 saw value and weight explode by over 900% MoM in September, reaching $33.3M and 30.5M kg in October, before collapsing by -64.5% in value and -64.9% in weight by December. This represents a classic arbitrage-driven spike, not industrial expansion, likely capitalizing on war-induced global shortages in competing origins.

No Policy Shock, Pure Market Opportunism

• The absence of Bolivia-specific 2025 policy changes under hs code 1512 value shifts confirms the volatility was purely market-driven. The data suggests traders leveraged Bolivia's position to fill temporary gaps, but lacked the supply chain durability to sustain elevated volumes.
• Actionable Insights:
• Build contingency plans for Q3 2026; expect similar opportunistic surges if Black Sea or Southeast Asian supply faces renewed disruption.
• Secure Q4 freight capacity early; the drastic drop suggests severe logistics bottlenecks once spot demand faded.

Table: Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export Trend (Source: yTrade)

Get Bolivia Sunflower Oil Data Latest Updates

Crude Sunflower Oil Dominates Bolivia's Export Structure

Market Heavily Reliant on Raw Material Exports

• Insight-First Summary: Sub-code 1512111000 (crude sunflower oil) dominates, capturing 79% of export volume and 78% of total value.
• Citation: According to yTrade data, this single crude oil category accounts for nearly four-fifths of all sunflower oil exports from Bolivia in 2025.
• Analysis: This extreme concentration indicates a top-heavy market dependent on bulk raw material shipments, with minimal diversification into processed goods. The supply chain is optimized for volume, not value-added production.

Low Unit Prices Confirm Commodity-Grade Trading

• Value Chain Verdict: With unit prices ranging from $1.08 to $1.17/kg, this is unequivocally a commodity market driven by bulk transactions.
• Strategic Insight: The HS Code 1512 breakdown shows Bolivia exporting almost exclusively crude oil, with refined products making up just over one-fifth of volume. This reflects an export economy focused on raw extraction rather than downstream processing.
• Information Increment: The narrow price spread between crude and refined suggests Bolivia lacks the infrastructure or incentive to capture higher margins through refining—bulk export is the path of least resistance.

Table: Bolivia HS Code 1512) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed HS Code 1512 Breakdown

Bolivia’s Sunflower Oil Exports Dominated by Single Market in 2025

Is Bolivia’s Export Strategy Overly Reliant on Ecuador?

• Bolivia’s sunflower oil exports in 2025 are heavily concentrated, with Ecuador accounting for 70.84% of total export value—a high-risk monopsony scenario that exposes Bolivia to significant demand-side volatility.
• No evidence of re-imports or returned goods exists; trade flows represent genuine foreign consumption, primarily within South America.
• Secondary markets like Colombia (13.69% value share) and Peru (7.77%) provide limited diversification, underscoring strategic dependency on one buyer.

Are Buyers Prioritizing Price Over Premium Quality?

• Key importers exhibit balanced value-to-weight ratios: Ecuador (70.84% value vs. 70.87% weight), Colombia (13.69% vs. 12.77%), and Peru (7.77% vs. 6.98%), indicating commodity-driven demand with uniform pricing near ~$1.10/kg.
• This alignment suggests bulk industrial or wholesale procurement rather than premium segmentation, favoring volume scale over margin potential.
• Low-frequency, high-volume shipments to Brazil and Costa Rica further reinforce stockpiling or large-order logistics patterns.

Table: Bolivia Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)

Get Bolivia Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Complete Destination Countries Profile

Bolivia’s Sunflower Oil Exports Are Dominated by a Handful of Strategic Contract Partners

Buyer Concentration & Market Structure

• Insight-First Summary: According to yTrade data, the Bolivia Sunflower Oil buyers are primarily defined by Key Accounts.
• Structure Verdict: The market operates through a highly concentrated supply chain, with just two firms—Louis Dreyfus and ADM—controlling 93% of export value and volume. This reflects a mature, contract-driven trade flow rather than a spot market. Stability comes from long-term agreements, but reliance on two players introduces significant counterparty risk.

Purchasing Behavior & Sales Strategy

• The "So What": The HS Code 1512 buyer trends show extreme buyer concentration, making relationship depth and contract security the top sales priorities. New entrants should focus on secondary segments like Project Whales or Testing Buyers to diversify exposure.
• Strategic Advice: Sellers must protect existing key account relationships—any disruption here threatens nearly the entire export revenue. For smaller buyers, use digital platforms to reduce transaction costs and capture occasional demand.
• News Integration: Bolivia was the 19th largest global exporter of seed oils in 2023, though no 2025-specific policy updates affect trade under HS 1512 [Seed Oils in Bolivia Trade].

Table: Bolivia Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) Top Buyers List (Source: yTrade)

Check Full Bolivia Sunflower Oil Buyers list

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export in 2025?

Bolivia's sunflower oil exports saw a 900% surge in Q3 2025 due to temporary global shortages, followed by a -65% collapse by year-end, reflecting opportunistic arbitrage rather than sustained growth.

Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Bolivia Sunflower Oil (HS Code 1512) in 2025?

Ecuador dominates with 70.8% of export value, followed by Colombia (13.7%) and Peru (7.8%), creating high reliance on a single market.

Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Bolivia Sunflower Oil Export in 2025?

Prices cluster near $1.10/kg globally, as 79% of exports are crude sunflower oil (HS 1512111000), a bulk commodity with minimal price variation.

Q4. What should exporters in Bolivia focus on in the current Sunflower Oil export market?

Protect relationships with key buyers (Louis Dreyfus and ADM control 93% of trade) and prepare for Q3 2026 volatility if global supply shocks recur.

Q5. What does this Bolivia Sunflower Oil export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?

Buyers benefit from stable bulk pricing but face supply risks if Bolivia’s concentrated trade flows or logistics bottlenecks disrupt shipments.

Q6. How is Sunflower Oil typically used in this trade flow?

Exported almost entirely as crude oil (78% of value), Bolivia’s sunflower oil is used for industrial refining or wholesale food production abroad.