2025 Argentina Sweetened Milk (HS 0402) Export: Market Shift
Key Takeaways
Sweetened milk, classified under HS Code 0402 (Milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter), exhibited high volatility from January to September 2025.
- Market Pulse: Exports surged in Q1, collapsed by 46.2% in Q2, then partially recovered in Q3 after Argentina eliminated export duties for HS Code 0402.
- Structural Shift: Argentina Sweetened milk Export relies heavily on Brazil (52.16% of value), creating acute market risk, while Algeria shows premium potential with higher value-to-weight ratios.
- Product Logic: HS Code 0402 trade data reveals a split between commodity-grade bulk shipments (75% volume) and niche high-fat, unsweetened variants priced up to 21.75 USD/kg.
This overview covers the period from January to September 2025 and is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Argentina Sweetened Milk (HS Code 0402) Key Metrics Trend
Market Trend Summary
The Argentina Sweetened milk Export trend across the first three quarters of 2025 showed pronounced volatility, beginning with strong performance before a sharp mid-year contraction and subsequent recovery. Exports started robustly in Q1, with value peaking at $111.94M in March, but then contracted severely in Q2—plummeting by 46.2% month-on-month in May to $48.64M. A partial rebound occurred in Q3, with value climbing to $93.96M by September, though still below the Q1 highs.
Drivers & Industry Context
The Q2 collapse in export value and weight likely reflects typical seasonality in dairy production cycles, compounded by tighter currency settlement rules that may have temporarily disrupted trade flows. The Q3 recovery aligns directly with Argentina’s elimination of export duties for goods under HS Code 0402, enacted via [Decree 682] in late September. This policy established a 0% duty rate until October 31, 2025, or until a $7 billion export cap is reached, immediately boosting competitiveness for key markets like Brazil and Algeria (KPMG). The resulting hs code 0402 value increase reflects exporters accelerating shipments to capitalize on the duty suspension before its expiration.
Table: Argentina Sweetened Milk Export Trend (Source: yTrade)
| Date | Value | Weight | Unit Price | Value MoM | Weight MoM | Unit Price MoM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-01 | 101.39M USD | 13.25M kg | $7.65/kg | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-02-01 | 97.26M USD | 12.41M kg | $7.84/kg | -4.07% | -6.33% | +2.41% |
| 2025-03-01 | 111.94M USD | 13.55M kg | $8.26/kg | +15.10% | +9.21% | +5.39% |
| 2025-04-01 | 90.41M USD | 10.75M kg | $8.41/kg | -19.24% | -20.68% | +1.81% |
| 2025-05-01 | 48.64M USD | N/A | N/A | -46.20% | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-06-01 | 45.20M USD | N/A | N/A | -7.05% | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-07-01 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-08-01 | 80.46M USD | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2025-09-01 | 93.96M USD | N/A | N/A | +16.77% | N/A | N/A |
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Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Breakdown
Market Composition & Top Categories
The dominant sub-code for Argentina HS Code 0402 Export is concentrated milk powder with over 1.5% fat and no added sugar, accounting for over 75% of the export value. According to yTrade data from the first three quarters of 2025, this category also represents 61% of the quantity shipped. The remaining sub-codes consist mostly of lower-fat or sweetened milk powder variants, which collectively hold minor shares in value and volume.
Value Chain & Strategic Insights
Unit prices for HS Code 0402 breakdown vary widely from 3.87 to 21.75 USD per kilogram, with the top product priced at 15.44 USD/kg. This range indicates a market structure blending commodity-grade items with some specialized, higher-value offerings. Overall, the trade is commodity-sensitive due to the dominance of standardized products, but niche segments command premium prices based on fat content and processing.
Table: Argentina HS Code 0402) Export Breakdown Details (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Product Description | Value | Frequency | Quantity | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 040221***** | Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) | 503.45M | 1.70K | 38.48M | 32.61M |
| 040210***** | Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated or containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content not exceeding 1.5% (by weight) | 83.14M | 774.00 | 16.09M | 8.10M |
| 040221***** | Dairy produce; milk and cream, concentrated, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, in powder, granules or other solid forms, of a fat content exceeding 1.5% (by weight) | 30.29M | 132.00 | 5.87M | 3.11M |
| 0402** | ******** | ******** | ******** | ******** | ******** |
Check Detailed HS Code 0402 Breakdown
Argentina Sweetened Milk Destination Countries
Geographic Concentration & Market Risk
Argentina's sweetened milk exports flow overwhelmingly to Brazil, which captured 52.16% of the total export value in the first three quarters of 2025. This extreme dependence on a single market creates significant exposure to any economic or policy shifts in Brazil. Diversifying Argentina's Sweetened milk export destinations is a critical strategic priority to mitigate this concentrated risk.
Purchasing Behavior & Demand Segmentation
Brazil's trade profile shows a commodity-driven pattern, with its share of total weight (59.11%) exceeding its value share. This indicates bulk, price-sensitive demand, likely for industrial processing. In contrast, Algeria, the second-largest partner, shows a premium signal with a value share (35.16%) significantly higher than its weight share (27.04%), pointing to quality-conscious trade partners for Sweetened milk. The market offers clear Volume Scale in Brazil and Margin Potential in Algeria.
Table: Argentina Sweetened Milk (HS Code 0402) Top Destination Countries (Source: yTrade)
| Country | Value | Quantity | Frequency | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRAZIL | 349.09M | 44.48M | 2.31K | 29.53M |
| ALGERIA | 235.30M | 11.34M | 224.00 | 13.51M |
| VENEZUELA | 15.14M | 365.14K | 39.00 | 1.68M |
| CAMEROON | 11.78M | 1.84M | 47.00 | 788.52K |
| CÔTE D'IVOIRE | 7.51M | 1.03M | 28.00 | 593.33K |
| PERU | ****** | ****** | ****** | ****** |
Get Argentina Sweetened Milk (HS Code 0402) Complete Destination Countries Profile
Action Plan for Sweetened Milk Market Operation and Expansion
- Diversify export markets: Reduce reliance on Brazil by targeting premium buyers in Algeria and other regions with higher value-to-weight demand.
- Lock in short-term contracts: Capitalize on the 0% export duty window before its October 2025 expiration or $7 billion cap.
- Optimize logistics for bulk shipments: Focus on cost reduction for commodity-grade sweetened milk to compete in price-sensitive markets like Brazil.
- Brand premium variants: Highlight high-fat, unsweetened products in markets like Algeria to command premium pricing.
- Monitor Brazilian policy shifts: Anticipate economic or regulatory changes that could disrupt Argentina’s dominant trade flow.
Take Action Now —— Explore Argentina Sweetened milk HS Code 0402 Export Data
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. What is driving the recent changes in Argentina Sweetened milk Export in 2025?
The volatility in Argentina's Sweetened milk exports is driven by seasonal production cycles and policy shifts, particularly the elimination of export duties in Q3 2025, which boosted competitiveness. A sharp mid-year contraction was followed by recovery after the duty suspension.
Q2. Who are the main destination countries of Argentina Sweetened milk (HS Code 0402) in 2025?
Brazil dominates as the top destination, capturing 52.16% of export value, followed by Algeria with 35.16%. These two markets account for the majority of Argentina's Sweetened milk exports.
Q3. Why does the unit price differ across destination countries of Argentina Sweetened milk Export in 2025?
Unit prices vary due to demand segmentation—Brazil buys bulk, price-sensitive shipments (higher volume, lower value share), while Algeria shows premium demand (higher value per weight).
Q4. What should exporters in Argentina focus on in the current Sweetened milk export market?
Exporters should prioritize diversifying beyond Brazil to mitigate risk while capitalizing on Algeria's premium segment. Timing shipments to leverage duty-free periods is also critical.
Q5. What does this Argentina Sweetened milk export pattern mean for buyers in partner countries?
Brazilian buyers benefit from bulk commodity pricing, while Algerian buyers signal quality-driven demand. Both markets face potential supply fluctuations due to Argentina's export policy shifts.
Q6. How is Sweetened milk typically used in this trade flow?
Sweetened milk exports are primarily used for industrial processing, with Brazil's bulk purchases likely for mass production and Algeria's premium demand suggesting higher-end applications.
Detailed Monthly and Quarterly Report
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JAN
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 FEB
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 MAR
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 APR
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 MAY
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JUN
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 JUL
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 AUG
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 SEP
Argentina HS Code 0402 Export Data Snapshot 2025 Q1
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