Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade 2023 Q4: Widening Deficit Crisis
Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkey shows widening deficits amid volatile growth in Q4 2023.
- Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan’s $260.99M trade deficit with Turkey deepened as imports ($497.79M) more than doubled exports ($236.80M), with exports declining sharply (-30.72% YoY).
- Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Turkey trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—copper and cotton (60% of exports) flow to Turkey, while machinery (30% of imports) dominates inbound shipments.
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced: Turkey secures raw materials while Uzbekistan relies on Turkish industrial equipment, locking in a lower value-chain position.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Uzbekistan-Turkey Trade Trend in Q4 2023
Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkey
- Total Volume: $236.80M in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY decline persisted across all months, worsening to -30.72% in December. No trade policy shifts were reported to explain the contraction.
- November saw the sharpest MoM drop (-11.35%), while December’s 12.04% rebound failed to offset earlier losses.
Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkey
- Total Volume: $497.79M in Q4 2023.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY growth: October (+20.06%) and December (+8.95%) gains were partially offset by November’s slowdown (+5.41%).
- December recorded the highest monthly imports ($181.79M) with a 19.67% MoM surge, suggesting year-end demand spikes.
Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: $260.99M trade deficit (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
- Relationship Status: Uzbekistan remains heavily import-dependent on Turkey, with Q4 imports more than double exports. The deficit widened YoY due to export declines outpacing import growth.
Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkey 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 164.09M | 12.64% | 20.06% |
| Nov | 151.91M | -7.42% | 5.41% |
| Dec | 181.79M | 19.67% | 8.95% |
| Total | 497.79M | - | - |
Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkey 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct | 82.23M | -1.03% | -3.06% |
| Nov | 72.90M | -11.35% | -20.6% |
| Dec | 81.67M | 12.04% | -30.72% |
| Total | 236.80M | - | - |
Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkey Trade Records
Uzbekistan-Turkey Top Trading Products in Q4 2023
Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkey
- Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates with 33.46% share.
- Demand Driver: Turkey likely uses Uzbek copper for industrial processing, given its raw material nature.
- Concentration: The top two commodities (copper and cotton, HS 52) account for nearly 60% of exports, indicating high trade concentration.
Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkey
- Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads with 30.31% share.
- Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery imports suggest reliance on Turkish industrial equipment.
Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports raw materials (copper, cotton) and imports high-value machinery.
- Value Chain Position: Turkey holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery while Uzbekistan provides upstream commodities.
Import Analysis by Product: Turkey to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | 150.90M | 30.31% |
| 85 | 37.14M | 7.46% |
| 73 | 31.35M | 6.30% |
| 39 | 25.42M | 5.11% |
| 94 | 21.46M | 4.31% |
| 87 | 19.71M | 3.96% |
| 34 | 17.20M | 3.46% |
| 30 | 16.66M | 3.35% |
| 32 | 15.43M | 3.10% |
| 38 | 15.05M | 3.02% |
Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkey (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 74 | 79.22M | 33.46% |
| 52 | 62.57M | 26.42% |
| 39 | 26.21M | 11.07% |
| 08 | 12.81M | 5.41% |
| 79 | 11.21M | 4.73% |
| 27 | 8.41M | 3.55% |
| 85 | 7.23M | 3.05% |
| 31 | 6.31M | 2.67% |
| 71 | 5.71M | 2.41% |
| 07 | 4.01M | 1.70% |
Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkey Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
The Uzbekistan-Turkey trade relationship is likely to face continued volatility in the near term, with exports under pressure and imports showing selective resilience. Given the persistent YoY decline in Uzbek exports—particularly copper and cotton—and Turkey’s growing demand for industrial machinery, the trade deficit may widen further unless structural adjustments are made. However, December’s import surge suggests Turkish buyers are stockpiling Uzbek raw materials, which could stabilize export volumes if sustained. Traders should prepare for a period of consolidation, with export recovery hinging on commodity price stability and Turkey’s industrial demand cycles.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Basket: Uzbek exporters must reduce reliance on copper and cotton by targeting secondary markets like processed metals or textiles to mitigate price volatility and Turkish demand fluctuations.
- Lock In Machinery Supply Chains: Importers should secure long-term contracts with Turkish machinery suppliers to hedge against potential cost spikes, given Uzbekistan’s critical dependency on high-value equipment.
- Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Both governments may intervene to rebalance the deficit; traders must stay alert to tariff adjustments or export incentives that could emerge in 2024.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Uzbekistan - Turkey trade perform in 2023 Q4?
Uzbekistan's exports to Turkey declined by 30.72% YoY to $236.80M, while imports rose to $497.79M, resulting in a $260.99M trade deficit.
What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkey?
Copper (HS 74) and cotton (HS 52) dominate, accounting for nearly 60% of Uzbekistan's exports to Turkey.
What does Uzbekistan import from Turkey?
Machinery (HS 84) is the top import, representing 30.31% of Uzbekistan's purchases from Turkey.
What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkey?
Uzbekistan recorded a $260.99M trade deficit with Turkey in Q4 2023, with the gap widening due to declining exports.
Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade 2023 Q2: Widening Deficit & Tech Imports
Uzbekistan's trade deficit with Turkey hit $162.56M in Q2 2023, driven by machinery imports and raw cotton exports. Explore Uzbekistan-Turkey trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade 2024 Whole Year: Growing Deficit & Resource-Tech Exchange
Uzbekistan's trade deficit with Turkey hits $706M in 2024, driven by copper and cotton exports funding Turkish machinery imports. Explore Uzbekistan Turkey trade trends and top trading products via yTrade data.
