Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade 2023 Q1: Widening Deficit, Tech-for-Resource

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Turkey reflects widening structural dependency in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan posted a $96.19M trade deficit with Turkey, as imports ($448.64M) grew YoY while exports ($352.45M) contracted.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Turkey trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech model—copper and cotton (80.82% of exports) swapped for machinery and pharmaceuticals (42.02% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but asymmetric, with Turkey capturing higher value-add in manufactured goods.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Turkey Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Turkey

• Total Volume: $352.45M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY decline persisted across all months (-11.99% in Jan, -2.2% in Feb, -3.33% in Mar), signaling sustained demand or competitiveness challenges.
• Key Volatility: March saw a sharp 22.19% MoM rebound, though still below prior-year levels.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Turkey

• Total Volume: $448.64M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth remained positive (5.07% in Jan, 23.23% in Feb, 20.91% in Mar), suggesting robust domestic demand for Turkish goods.
• Key Volatility: February was the peak month (23.23% YoY), while March recorded the steepest MoM drop (-21.39%).

Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $96.19M (Imports exceeded exports).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan’s reliance on Turkish imports widened, with imports growing YoY despite export contraction. The deficit highlights a structural dependency.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Turkey 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Turkey 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Turkey Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Turkey Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Turkey

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates with 45.67% share.
• Demand Driver: Turkey likely uses Uzbek copper for industrial processing, given its high share and raw material nature.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with copper and cotton (HS 52) together accounting for 80.82% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Turkey

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads with 34.34% share.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as machinery and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) make up 42.02% of imports.

Uzbekistan - Turkey Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports raw materials (copper, cotton) and imports high-value machinery and pharmaceuticals.
• Value Chain Position: Turkey holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced goods, while Uzbekistan provides commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Turkey to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Turkey (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Turkey Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Turkey trade relationship is likely to remain imbalanced in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s trade deficit persisting due to strong domestic demand for Turkish machinery and pharmaceuticals. However, the rebound in Uzbek copper exports in March 2023 suggests potential stabilization if global commodity demand holds. If Turkey’s industrial sector maintains its appetite for raw materials, Uzbek exporters could see a modest recovery, though structural dependency on high-value Turkish imports will keep the deficit wide. Traders should prepare for continued volatility, particularly in machinery imports, given Turkey’s economic fluctuations.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Uzbek exporters must reduce reliance on copper and cotton by exploring secondary commodities (e.g., processed metals, textiles) to mitigate price volatility and capture higher margins.
• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Importers of Turkish machinery should secure fixed-price agreements to hedge against potential lira depreciation and supply chain disruptions.
• Boost Competitiveness in Key Sectors: Uzbekistan should incentivize value-added production (e.g., textile finishing, copper fabrication) to shift from raw material exporter to intermediate goods supplier, narrowing the trade gap.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Turkey trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Uzbekistan's exports to Turkey declined YoY (-11.99% in Jan, -2.2% in Feb, -3.33% in Mar), totaling $352.45M, while imports grew (5.07% in Jan, 23.23% in Feb, 20.91% in Mar), reaching $448.64M.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Turkey?

Copper (HS 74) and cotton (HS 52) dominate, accounting for 80.82% of Uzbekistan's exports to Turkey.

What does Uzbekistan import from Turkey?

Machinery (HS 84) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30) are the top imports, making up 42.02% of Uzbekistan's purchases from Turkey.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Turkey?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $96.19M with Turkey in Q1 2023, as imports grew YoY while exports contracted.