Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade 2023 Whole Year: $329.83M Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan shows growth with notable volatility in 2023.

• Uzbekistan dominates with a $329.83M surplus, exporting $467.17M (3.4x imports) amid mixed monthly performance—sharp spikes (May +105.76%) and drops (Oct -22.44%).
• Resource-for-resource trade: Uzbekistan supplies mineral fuels (16.01% of exports) while importing ores (21.94% of imports), reflecting raw material complementarity.
• Basic industrial interdependence: Proximity drives low-value commodity exchange, with neither side holding high-value chain positions.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $467.17M in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth in key months (e.g., May +105.76%, Apr +60.25%), offset by a sharp contraction in October (-22.44%).
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: November saw a 67.17% MoM surge, while October dropped 16.26% MoM.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Tajikistan

• Total Volume: $137.34M in 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: April (+27.73%) and October (+17.7%) gains contrasted with steep declines (e.g., July -41.1%, Jan -50.72%).
• Key Volatility: February posted a 93.85% MoM jump, while November plunged 44.9% MoM.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Surplus of $329.83M (Exports $467.17M > Imports $137.34M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with exports 3.4x higher than imports. Trade remains lopsided but stable.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Tajikistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Tajikistan 2023 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Tajikistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is Mineral fuels (HS 27) at 16.01% of total exports.
• Demand Driver: Tajikistan likely uses these for industrial processing and energy needs.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50% share). Exports are diversified across multiple sectors, including textiles (HS 50, 61), chemicals (HS 31, 38), and machinery (HS 84).

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Tajikistan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is Ores, slag, and ash (HS 26) at 21.94% of total imports.
• Dependency Nature: Reflects raw material dependency, likely for Uzbekistan’s industrial or metallurgical sectors.

Uzbekistan - Tajikistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports energy (HS 27) and imports ores (HS 26), suggesting a raw material exchange rather than high-tech or consumer goods trade.
• Value Chain Position: Both sides trade low-value-added commodities, indicating neither holds a clear high-value position. Trade is likely driven by geographic proximity and basic industrial needs.

Import Analysis by Product: Tajikistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Tajikistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Tajikistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Tajikistan is expected to widen further in 2024, driven by sustained demand for mineral fuels (HS 27) and Tajikistan’s reliance on Uzbek energy supplies. However, volatility in monthly trade flows—particularly in exports—calls for caution, as geopolitical or logistical disruptions could amplify price swings. The complementary resource-based trade model will likely persist, but both nations should explore value-added exchanges to reduce dependency on raw material fluctuations. Traders should prepare for moderate growth with intermittent volatility in the Uzbekistan-Tajikistan trade corridor.

Strategic Moves

• Secure Long-Term Supply Contracts: Uzbek exporters of mineral fuels (HS 27) should lock in multi-year agreements with Tajik buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid erratic monthly demand shifts.
• Diversify Import Sources: Uzbekistan’s reliance on Tajik ores (HS 26) exposes it to supply shocks. Sourcing from alternative markets (e.g., Kazakhstan) can mitigate disruption risks.
• Invest in Cross-Border Logistics: Both governments must streamline customs and transport infrastructure to reduce delays, especially during peak trade months like May and November.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Tajikistan trade perform in 2023 Whole Year?

Uzbekistan exported $467.17M and imported $137.34M from Tajikistan in 2023, with strong YoY growth in key months but notable volatility in others like October (-22.44%).

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Tajikistan?

The top export is Mineral fuels (HS 27) at 16.01% of total exports, followed by textiles (HS 50, 61), chemicals (HS 31, 38), and machinery (HS 84).

What does Uzbekistan import from Tajikistan?

The top import is Ores, slag, and ash (HS 26) at 21.94% of total imports, reflecting raw material dependency for industrial or metallurgical sectors.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a surplus of $329.83M in 2023, with exports 3.4x higher than imports, maintaining a lopsided but stable trade relationship.