Uzbekistan - Russia Trade 2023 Q1: Deficit & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Russia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Russia shows growth with notable volatility in Q1 2023.

• Trade Deficit & Volume: Uzbekistan posted a $1.09B deficit with Russia, importing $1.61B (led by energy) while exporting $516.55M (driven by apparel). YoY growth was uneven, with sharp monthly swings.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Russia trade statistics reveal a resource-for-consumer goods model—Uzbekistan supplies textiles (38.6% of exports) and imports energy (26.1%) and industrial metals.
• Strategic Fit: Russia holds the upper hand as a supplier of critical inputs, while Uzbekistan relies on this dyad for energy security and export revenue.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Russia Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Russia

• Total Volume: $516.55M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: Strong growth in February (+41.8%) but moderated in March (+10.74%). January also saw a solid 19.27% YoY rise.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: March saw a sharp MoM drop (-37.35%), contrasting with February’s 8.54% rise.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Russia

• Total Volume: $1.61B in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Robust YoY growth in March (+38.63%) and January (+18.67%), offsetting February’s muted 2.09% rise.
  • No external events cited to contextualize trends.
• Key Volatility: March imports surged 25.06% MoM, while January saw a -30.65% contraction.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of ~$1.09B (Imports exceeded exports by this margin).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Russian imports, with exports failing to bridge the gap. Uzbekistan remains a net importer in this trade dyad.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Russia 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Russia 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Russia Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Russia Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Russia

• Top Commodity: Apparel (HS 61) dominates with a 21.52% share.
• Demand Driver: Russia imports consumer goods like clothing (HS 61) and textiles (HS 52) to serve its domestic market.
• Concentration: No single category exceeds 50%, but apparel and textiles combined account for 38.61% of exports.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Russia

• Top Commodity: Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead with a 26.11% share.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on Russia for energy (HS 27) and industrial inputs like iron/steel (HS 72, 73), indicating raw material and energy security dependencies.

Uzbekistan - Russia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports low-value consumer goods (apparel, textiles) and imports high-value industrial inputs (energy, metals).
• Value Chain Position: Russia holds the higher value-add position, supplying critical energy and metals, while Uzbekistan provides labor-intensive goods.

Import Analysis by Product: Russia to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Russia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Russia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade deficit with Russia is likely to persist in Q2 2023, driven by continued reliance on Russian energy (HS 27) and industrial inputs. However, export growth in apparel (HS 61) and textiles (HS 52) may accelerate if Uzbek producers capitalize on Russia’s demand for cost-competitive consumer goods. Volatility in monthly trade flows suggests exporters should brace for uneven demand, while importers must prepare for potential energy price fluctuations. The Uzbekistan-Russia trade forecast hinges on Tashkent’s ability to diversify its export basket and reduce dependency on Russian raw materials.

Strategic Moves

• Expand Export Basket: Uzbek exporters should target higher-value segments within textiles (e.g., technical fabrics) and explore new categories like processed foods to reduce reliance on low-margin apparel.
• Lock in Energy Contracts: Importers must secure long-term agreements for Russian mineral fuels (HS 27) to hedge against price volatility and ensure stable supply chains.
• Diversify Import Sources: Uzbekistan should accelerate partnerships with alternative suppliers (e.g., Kazakhstan for metals, Iran for energy) to mitigate overexposure to Russian industrial inputs.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Russia trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Uzbekistan exported $516.55M to Russia and imported $1.61B, showing mixed YoY growth but a significant trade deficit of ~$1.09B.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Russia?

Apparel (HS 61) and textiles (HS 52) dominate, accounting for 38.61% of Uzbekistan’s exports to Russia.

What does Uzbekistan import from Russia?

Mineral fuels (HS 27) lead with a 26.11% share, followed by industrial inputs like iron and steel (HS 72, 73).

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Russia?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of ~$1.09B, with imports from Russia far exceeding exports.