Uzbekistan - Lithuania Trade 2023 Q2: Volatile Deficit Dynamics

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Lithuania Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Lithuania is marked by volatile growth and a heavy trade deficit in Q2 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan ran a $120.64M trade deficit with Lithuania, with imports ($144.78M) dwarfing exports ($24.14M). Volatile YoY swings—like May’s 247% import surge—highlight erratic demand.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Lithuania trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic: copper (33.7% of exports) flows to Lithuania, while machinery (23.8% of imports) drives inbound shipments.
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is asymmetric but complementary—Uzbekistan supplies raw materials, Lithuania delivers high-value machinery, locking in mutual dependency.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Lithuania Trade Trend in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Lithuania

• Total Volume: $24.14M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings were volatile: +92.94% in April, +46.44% in May, then a sharp -42.18% drop in June.
  • No trade policy updates to contextualize the fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: June saw a -40.03% MoM decline, the steepest monthly contraction.

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Lithuania

• Total Volume: $144.78M in Q2 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY extremes: May imports surged 247.35%, but June fell -32.73% YoY.
  • No news to explain the erratic demand shifts.
• Key Volatility: May’s imports peaked at $69.46M (+53.47% MoM), while June halved to $30.06M (-56.72% MoM).

Uzbekistan - Lithuania Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $120.64M (Imports exceeded exports by 6x).
• Relationship Status: Heavy import dependence on Lithuania, with export volumes failing to offset inbound trade.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Lithuania 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Lithuania 2023 Q2 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Lithuania Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Lithuania Top Trading Products in Q2 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Lithuania

• Top Commodity: Copper (HS 74) dominates exports, accounting for 33.68% of total value.
• Demand Driver: Lithuania likely uses Uzbek copper for industrial processing, given its raw material nature.
• Concentration: The top two categories (copper and iron/steel, HS 72) combine for 58.5% of exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Lithuania

• Top Commodity: Machinery (HS 84) leads imports with a 23.77% share.
• Dependency Nature: High-tech machinery imports suggest critical technology dependency for Uzbekistan’s industrial or infrastructure needs.

Uzbekistan - Lithuania Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports raw materials (copper, iron) while importing machinery and transport equipment from Lithuania.
• Value Chain Position: Lithuania holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced machinery (HS 84, 88) versus Uzbekistan’s raw material exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Lithuania to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Lithuania (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Lithuania Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan-Lithuania trade is likely to remain volatile in Q3 2023, with Lithuania retaining its upper hand in value-added exports. The erratic YoY swings in both exports (-42.18% drop in June) and imports (-56.72% MoM decline) suggest unaddressed supply chain disruptions or demand shocks. However, the resource-for-tech complementarity—Uzbekistan’s copper for Lithuania’s machinery—creates a stable foundation for recovery if pricing and logistics stabilize. Traders should brace for short-term turbulence but expect mid-term rebalancing as raw material demand persists.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Copper Contracts: Uzbek exporters must secure long-term agreements with Lithuanian industrial buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure steady revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources: Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on Lithuanian machinery (23.77% of imports) is risky. Buyers should scout alternative suppliers in the EU or Turkey to reduce dependency.
• Push for Trade Facilitation: Both governments should fast-track customs digitization and reduce non-tariff barriers to stabilize the erratic monthly trade flows.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Lithuania trade perform in 2023 Q2?

Uzbekistan's exports to Lithuania totaled $24.14M, with volatile YoY swings, while imports reached $144.78M, resulting in a $120.64M trade deficit.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Lithuania?

The top exports are copper (HS 74) and iron/steel (HS 72), accounting for 58.5% of total export value.

What does Uzbekistan import from Lithuania?

Uzbekistan primarily imports machinery (HS 84) and transport equipment (HS 88), reflecting a dependency on high-tech industrial goods.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Lithuania?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade deficit of $120.64M, with imports exceeding exports by 6x in Q2 2023.