Uzbekistan - Germany Trade 2023 Q4: Deficit & Tech Reliance

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Germany Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Germany is marked by volatile growth and a structural deficit in Q4 2023.

• Deficit-Driven Trade: Uzbekistan’s imports from Germany ($232.47M) dwarfed exports ($8.91M), resulting in a $223.56M trade deficit, reflecting heavy reliance on German industrial inputs.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Uzbekistan - Germany trade statistics show a lopsided exchange—textiles (HS 62) and agricultural goods flow out, while machinery (HS 84) and high-tech imports dominate, underscoring Germany’s value-chain dominance.
• Asymmetric Interdependence: Germany holds strategic leverage as a technology supplier, while Uzbekistan remains a niche exporter, signaling limited diversification in bilateral trade data.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Germany Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Germany

• Total Volume: $8.91M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings were volatile: October (-52.77%) plunged, but November (+44.75%) and December (+35.18%) rebounded sharply. No news context to explain the shifts.
• Key Volatility: October saw a 21% MoM surge, followed by steep drops in November (-28.54%) and December (-16.01%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Germany

• Total Volume: $232.47M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth in October (+9.63%) and November (+9.23%) was stable, but December collapsed (-60.01%). No news to clarify the December crash.
• Key Volatility: December’s 17.19% MoM rise couldn’t offset its YoY nosedive. October and December had identical MoM spikes (~17%).

Uzbekistan - Germany Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade Deficit of $223.56M (Imports dwarfed Exports).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on German imports, with exports remaining marginal. The deficit highlights structural dependency.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Germany 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Germany 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Germany Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Germany Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Germany

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 62 (Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted) at 32.30% of total exports to Germany.
• Demand Driver: Germany imports these consumer goods to serve its domestic retail market.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 62, 71, 63) account for 56.71%, indicating moderate concentration in textiles and precious metals.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Germany

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 84 (Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery) at 40.05% of total imports from Germany.
• Dependency Nature: Uzbekistan relies on German machinery and high-tech equipment, reflecting critical technology dependency for industrial modernization.

Uzbekistan - Germany Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity—Uzbekistan exports low-value textiles (HS 62, 63) and agricultural products (HS 07, 08, 09) while importing high-value machinery (HS 84) and pharmaceuticals (HS 30).
• Value Chain Position: Germany holds the higher value-add position, dominating complex exports (machinery, optics, vehicles) versus Uzbekistan’s raw materials and light manufactures.

Import Analysis by Product: Germany to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Germany (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Germany Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Uzbekistan-Germany trade relationship is likely to remain volatile in the near term, with Uzbekistan’s export rebound in November and December 2023 signaling potential resilience in textiles (HS 62). However, the steep December import collapse (-60.01% YoY) from Germany suggests possible demand softening or supply chain disruptions. Given Germany’s dominance in high-value machinery (HS 84), Uzbekistan’s trade deficit will persist unless export diversification accelerates. Traders should prepare for uneven growth, with textiles holding steady but machinery imports facing uncertainty.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Uzbek textile exporters must reduce reliance on Germany by targeting EU neighbors like Poland and the Netherlands, where demand for apparel (HS 62) is growing.
• Lock in Machinery Contracts: Importers should negotiate long-term agreements with German suppliers to hedge against price volatility, especially for critical industrial equipment (HS 84).
• Boost Value-Added Exports: Uzbekistan’s government and exporters must invest in upgrading textile production to higher-margin categories (e.g., technical fabrics) to narrow the trade deficit.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Germany trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Uzbekistan exported $8.91M to Germany, with volatile YoY swings, while imports totaled $232.47M, showing stable growth until a sharp December decline.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Germany?

The top exports are HS 62 (apparel and clothing accessories), HS 71 (precious metals), and HS 63 (textiles), accounting for 56.71% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Germany?

The top import is HS 84 (nuclear reactors, machinery), making up 40.05% of imports, reflecting Uzbekistan’s reliance on German high-tech equipment.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Germany?

Uzbekistan had a trade deficit of $223.56M, driven by significantly higher imports of machinery and tech compared to exports of textiles and agricultural goods.