Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade 2024 Whole Year: Volatile Growth & Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan is marked by volatile growth and a dominant Uzbek trade surplus in 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Uzbekistan holds a $827.75M trade surplus, with exports ($872.40M) dwarfing imports ($44.65M). Demand for Uzbek goods in Afghanistan remains strong despite erratic monthly swings.
• Exchange Structure: Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade statistics reveal a resource-for-resource complementarity—Uzbekistan supplies agricultural staples (HS 11, 07) while importing Afghan energy products (HS 27).
• Strategic Interdependence: The partnership is asymmetrical but critical, with Uzbekistan securing fuel imports and Afghanistan relying on Uzbek food exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade Trend in Whole Year 2024

Uzbekistan Export Performance: Shipments to Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $872.40M in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with peaks in March (+42.59% MoM, +33.57% YoY) and October (+21.97% MoM, +63.26% YoY), but sharp declines in April (-45.42% MoM, -31.24% YoY) and May (-16.15% MoM, -35.35% YoY).
  • No specific trade news to explain volatility.
• Key Volatility: July saw the highest MoM surge (+108.61%), while April had the steepest drop (-45.42%).

Uzbekistan Import Performance: Sourcing from Afghanistan

• Total Volume: $44.65M in 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Extreme YoY growth spikes, notably December (+577.98% MoM, +1,712.73% YoY) and May (+48.9% MoM, +445.12% YoY), but steep contractions in September (-67.63% MoM) and November (-61.87% MoM).
  • No news context to explain fluctuations.
• Key Volatility: December was the peak month (14.37M), while September hit the lowest (1.32M).

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $827.75M (Exports $872.40M vs. Imports $44.65M).
• Relationship Status: Uzbekistan dominates as a net exporter, with exports nearly 20x imports. Demand for Uzbek goods in Afghanistan appears robust, while Afghan imports remain niche or seasonal.

Uzbekistan Import Trend from Afghanistan 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Uzbekistan Export Trend to Afghanistan 2024 Whole Year (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Uzbekistan Afghanistan Trade Records

Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Top Trading Products in Whole Year 2024

Uzbekistan Export Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Sell to Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 11 (34.98% share). This likely represents milling products, malt, starches, or gluten.
• Demand Driver: Afghanistan relies on Uzbekistan for basic foodstuffs and agricultural inputs, indicating a consumer market dependency.
• Concentration: The top 3 exports (HS 11, 27, 07) account for 75.44% of total exports, showing high category dominance.

Uzbekistan Import Profile: What Does Uzbekistan Buy from Afghanistan

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (30.75% share). Primarily mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Afghanistan supplies critical fuel products.

Uzbekistan - Afghanistan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Uzbekistan exports agricultural goods (HS 11, 07) while importing energy (HS 27) from Afghanistan.
• Value Chain Position: Uzbekistan holds a slightly higher value-add position with processed agricultural exports (HS 11) versus Afghanistan’s raw energy exports (HS 27).

Import Analysis by Product: Afghanistan to Uzbekistan (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Uzbekistan to Afghanistan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Uzbekistan’s trade surplus with Afghanistan is expected to widen in 2025, driven by sustained demand for processed agricultural goods (HS 11) and potential energy supply constraints in Afghanistan. The volatility in monthly trade flows suggests that exporters should anticipate seasonal fluctuations, particularly in agricultural shipments. However, the structural complementarity—Uzbekistan’s food exports for Afghanistan’s fuel supplies—will likely stabilize long-term trade volumes. Traders should monitor Afghan energy sector developments, as disruptions could further skew the trade balance in Uzbekistan’s favor.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Contracts for HS 11 Exports: Given Afghanistan’s dependency on Uzbek milling products, exporters should secure multi-year agreements to mitigate price volatility and ensure steady revenue.
• Diversify Afghan Energy Imports (HS 27): While Uzbekistan relies on Afghan mineral fuels, importers must identify alternative suppliers to hedge against supply shocks, given Afghanistan’s erratic export performance.
• Expand Trade Finance Mechanisms for SMEs: To capitalize on Uzbekistan’s export dominance, banks and trade agencies should offer tailored financing solutions for small exporters targeting Afghan markets, reducing liquidity constraints.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Uzbekistan - Afghanistan trade perform in 2024 Whole Year?

Uzbekistan exported $872.40M to Afghanistan and imported $44.65M, with mixed growth trends and notable volatility in specific months.

What are the top exports from Uzbekistan to Afghanistan?

The top exports include milling products, malt, starches, or gluten (HS Code 11), along with other agricultural goods, accounting for 75.44% of total exports.

What does Uzbekistan import from Afghanistan?

Uzbekistan primarily imports mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products (HS Code 27), reflecting a dependency on Afghan energy resources.

What is the trade balance between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan?

Uzbekistan recorded a trade surplus of $827.75M, with exports nearly 20x higher than imports, indicating strong demand for Uzbek goods in Afghanistan.