Peru - Argentina Trade 2024 Q4: Imbalance Deepens

Key Market Takeaways: Peru - Argentina Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Peru and Argentina remains stable but imbalanced in Q4 2024, with Peru running a significant trade deficit.

• Economic Pulse: Peru’s trade deficit with Argentina hit $600.83M, driven by $661.76M in imports versus just $60.93M in exports. Volatility spiked in Q4, with imports swinging 68.9% MoM in November before a -25.71% drop in December.
• Exchange Structure: The trade follows a Resource-for-Food Complementarity model. Peru exports processed goods like cocoa (HS 18) and metals (HS 74), while Argentina supplies critical agricultural staples, notably cereals (HS 10, 38.36% of imports).
• Strategic Interdependence: Peru’s reliance on Argentine food imports highlights a one-sided dependency, with exports covering only 9.2% of import value.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Peru-Argentina Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Peru Export Performance: Shipments to Argentina

• Total Volume: $60.93M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY data shows 0% change, indicating stability year-over-year. No significant policy shifts or disruptions noted.
• Key Volatility: December saw a sharp -37.44% MoM drop after November’s 16% rise, suggesting potential end-of-year demand contraction.

Peru Import Performance: Sourcing from Argentina

• Total Volume: $661.76M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context: YoY growth flat (0%), with no external shocks reported. Volatility dominated by MoM swings: November surged 68.9%, followed by a -25.71% December pullback.
• Key Volatility: November’s $283.42M peak contrasts with October’s $167.80M low, hinting at possible inventory restocking or seasonal demand.

Peru - Argentina Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of $600.83M (Imports exceed exports).
• Relationship Status: Peru heavily reliant on Argentine imports, with exports playing a marginal role (exports cover just 9.2% of import value).

Peru Import Trend from Argentina 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Peru Export Trend to Argentina 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Peru Argentina Trade Records

Peru-Argentina Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Peru Export Profile: What Does Peru Sell to Argentina

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 18 (Cocoa and cocoa preparations) with a 17.76% share.
• Demand Driver: Argentina likely imports these for consumer market needs, indicating a focus on food products.
• Concentration: No single category dominates; the top 3 exports (HS 18, 74, 73) collectively account for 44.56% of total exports.

Peru Import Profile: What Does Peru Buy from Argentina

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 10 (Cereals) with a 38.36% share.
• Dependency Nature: This suggests a food security dependency, as cereals are a staple agricultural product.

Peru - Argentina Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: The trade shows Resource-for-Food Complementarity. Peru exports processed goods (cocoa, metals) while importing agricultural staples (cereals, animal feed).
• Value Chain Position: Peru holds a higher value-add position, exporting processed commodities (HS 18, 74) versus Argentina’s bulk agricultural exports (HS 10, 23).

Import Analysis by Product: Argentina to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Peru to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Peru-Argentina Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Peru-Argentina trade relationship is expected to remain stable in the near term, with modest growth potential constrained by flat YoY trends and volatile monthly swings. The persistent trade deficit highlights Peru’s reliance on Argentine agricultural imports, particularly cereals, while Peru’s exports of processed goods like cocoa and metals face limited demand expansion. Seasonal fluctuations, as seen in Q4’s sharp December drop, may recur, urging traders to anticipate end-of-year demand contractions. Over the next year, diversification efforts could mitigate risks, but without structural shifts, the resource-for-food exchange model will likely dominate.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Import Sources: Reduce dependency on Argentine cereals by exploring alternative suppliers in Brazil or the U.S. to stabilize food security costs and hedge against supply volatility.
• Boost Export Competitiveness: Target niche demand in Argentina’s consumer market by promoting higher-value cocoa products or metals, leveraging Peru’s value-add advantage.
• Monitor Seasonal Trends Closely: Adjust inventory and shipping schedules to align with Argentina’s demand cycles, avoiding year-end slumps like December’s -37% export drop.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Peru - Argentina trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Peru's exports to Argentina totaled $60.93M, showing 0% YoY growth, while imports reached $661.76M, also flat YoY. The trade deficit stood at $600.83M, with notable MoM volatility in both directions.

What are the top exports from Peru to Argentina?

Peru's top exports to Argentina include Cocoa and cocoa preparations (HS 18), metals (HS 74 and 73), collectively accounting for 44.56% of total exports.

What does Peru import from Argentina?

Peru primarily imports Cereals (HS 10) from Argentina, making up 38.36% of total imports, reflecting a food security dependency.

What is the trade balance between Peru and Argentina?

Peru recorded a trade deficit of $600.83M with Argentina in Q4 2024, as imports vastly exceeded exports (covering just 9.2% of import value).