Paraguay - Peru Trade 2023 Q1: Surplus & Volatility

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Peru Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Peru is marked by volatile growth and a strong surplus for Paraguay in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $21.57M trade surplus with Peru, exporting $28.81M (primarily agricultural fats/oils) while importing $7.24M (mostly mineral fuels). YoY swings were erratic, with March exports surging 149%.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay-Peru trade statistics reveal resource-for-resource complementarity—Paraguay supplies agricultural commodities (HS 15, 23) and imports Peruvian energy (HS 27). High export concentration (71% in top 2 categories) exposes Paraguay to commodity price risks.
• Strategic Interdependence: Peru holds slight leverage as a fuel supplier, but both economies trade low-value-added goods, limiting deeper integration.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Peru Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Peru

• Total Volume: $28.81M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY swings were mixed: January (-3.25%) and February (-4.0%) saw contractions, but March exploded (+149.04%).
  • No news context to explain the volatility.
• Key Volatility: March’s exports surged 959.54% MoM, offsetting earlier declines.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Peru

• Total Volume: $7.24M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was erratic: January (+13.49%) and February (+229.42%) surged, but March dropped (-16.01%).
• Key Volatility: February imports spiked 66.19% MoM, while March’s growth reversed sharply.

Paraguay - Peru Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $21.57M (Exports $28.81M > Imports $7.24M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay is a strong net exporter to Peru, with exports nearly 4x imports in Q1.

Paraguay Import Trend from Peru 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Peru 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Peru Trade Records

Paraguay-Peru Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Peru

• Top Commodity: HS Code 15 (Animal/vegetable fats & oils) dominates with 39.55% share.
• Demand Driver: Peru likely uses these for industrial processing (e.g., food manufacturing, biofuels).
• Concentration: High—top 2 categories (HS 15 & 23) account for 71.24% of exports, indicating heavy reliance on a narrow commodity base.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Peru

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels/oils) leads at 14.08% share.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, given Peru’s role as a fuel supplier. Secondary imports (HS 96, 25) suggest supplementary industrial/consumer goods.

Paraguay - Peru Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity—Paraguay exports agricultural commodities (HS 15, 23) while importing Peruvian energy (HS 27) and minerals (HS 25).
• Value Chain Position: Both trade low-value-added goods, but Peru holds slight leverage via fuel exports. Paraguay’s export concentration risks exposure to commodity price swings.

Import Analysis by Product: Peru to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Peru (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Peru Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade surplus with Peru is likely to hold in Q2 2023, but volatility in commodity-driven exports (HS 15, 23) demands caution. The March export surge suggests potential pent-up demand for Paraguayan agricultural goods, yet reliance on a narrow product base leaves Peru-bound shipments exposed to price swings. Meanwhile, Peru’s fuel exports (HS 27) may stabilize Paraguay’s import costs if energy markets remain steady. Traders should prepare for erratic monthly swings, with annual growth hinging on sustained Peruvian industrial demand for raw materials.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Paraguayan exporters must reduce dependence on HS 15 and 23 by testing Peruvian demand for secondary goods like machinery (HS 84) or processed foods (HS 16).
• Lock in Fuel Contracts: Importers should negotiate long-term agreements with Peruvian energy suppliers (HS 27) to hedge against oil price volatility and ensure stable input costs.
• Monitor Trade Data Weekly: Given erratic monthly swings, businesses must track customs updates in real-time to adjust shipments and avoid inventory gluts during downturns.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Peru trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Paraguay exported $28.81M to Peru and imported $7.24M, with mixed YoY growth: exports surged in March (+149.04%) while imports dropped (-16.01%).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Peru?

Animal/vegetable fats & oils (HS 15) dominated, accounting for 39.55% of exports, followed by other agricultural commodities (HS 23), totaling 71.24% of Paraguay’s exports to Peru.

What does Paraguay import from Peru?

Mineral fuels/oils (HS 27) were the top import (14.08%), with secondary imports including industrial/consumer goods (HS 96, 25).

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Peru?

Paraguay had a trade surplus of $21.57M in Q1 2023, with exports nearly 4x higher than imports.