Paraguay - Mainland China Trade 2025 Q1: Deep Deficit, Volatile Growth

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Mainland China Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Mainland China reflects an asymmetric dependency, with Paraguay running a deep trade deficit in Q1 2025.

• $1.6B Deficit, Volatile Growth: Paraguay imported $1.61B from China (10-28% YoY growth) but exported just $8.97M, with mixed YoY performance (-19% to +128% monthly swings).
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay - Mainland China trade statistics show 75% of exports are raw materials (copper, wood), while 45% of imports are Chinese electronics and machinery.
• One-Sided Complementarity: Paraguay remains a commodity supplier to China’s manufacturing sector, with limited value-chain upgrading.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Mainland China Trade Trend in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Mainland China

• Total Volume: $8.97M in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed, with January surging 127.71% but February contracting 19.32%. March rebounded with 13.83% growth.
• Key Volatility: March saw the highest MoM jump (+28.59%), while January had the steepest MoM drop (-19.93%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Mainland China

• Total Volume: $1.61B in Q1 2025.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY growth across all months (10.48% to 28.44%), indicating sustained demand.
• Key Volatility: February imports dropped 20.89% MoM, but March rebounded sharply (+22.13%).

Paraguay - Mainland China Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade deficit of ~$1.60B (Imports $1.61B vs. Exports $8.97M).
• Relationship Status: Heavy reliance on Chinese imports dwarfs Paraguay’s export capacity, reflecting an asymmetric trade dependency.

Paraguay Import Trend from Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Mainland China 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Mainland China Trade Records

Paraguay-Mainland China Top Trading Products in Q1 2025

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Export is HS Code 74 (Copper and articles thereof), accounting for 26.36% of total exports to Mainland China.
• Demand Driver: Mainland China uses these raw materials (copper, aluminum, wood, hides) for industrial processing. The high share of metals and agricultural products suggests Paraguay serves as a supplier of inputs for China's manufacturing sector.
• Concentration: The top 4 exports (copper, aluminum, wood, hides) make up 74.66% of total exports, indicating high concentration in raw materials.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Mainland China

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 Import is HS Code 85 (Electrical machinery and equipment), making up 44.56% of total imports from Mainland China.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency. Paraguay relies heavily on Chinese electronics, machinery, and industrial goods, reflecting a structural gap in domestic manufacturing capabilities.

Paraguay - Mainland China Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (copper, wood, hides) and imports high-value manufactured goods (electronics, machinery, vehicles).
• Value Chain Position: Mainland China holds the higher value-add position, supplying advanced industrial products, while Paraguay remains a supplier of primary commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Mainland China to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Mainland China (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Mainland China Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Mainland China trade relationship is poised for continued growth in Q2 2025, driven by China’s insatiable demand for raw materials and Paraguay’s reliance on high-value manufactured imports. While Paraguay’s exports may face volatility due to fluctuating commodity prices, the structural complementarity—resources for tech—will sustain the trade deficit. Expect Chinese imports to maintain their upward trajectory, particularly in electronics and machinery, while Paraguay’s export performance hinges on securing stable demand for its copper, wood, and hides.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Supply Contracts: Paraguayan exporters of copper and agricultural commodities should negotiate multi-year agreements with Chinese buyers to mitigate price volatility and ensure steady revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources: Paraguayan importers must reduce overreliance on Chinese electronics by exploring alternative suppliers in Southeast Asia or Eastern Europe to mitigate supply chain risks.
• Invest in Value-Added Processing: Paraguay should prioritize domestic processing of raw materials (e.g., refining copper, tanning hides) to capture higher margins and reduce its role as a mere commodity supplier.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Mainland China trade perform in 2025 Q1?

Paraguay exported $8.97M to Mainland China with mixed YoY growth, while imports surged to $1.61B, reflecting strong demand for Chinese goods.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Mainland China?

Copper (HS Code 74), aluminum, wood, and hides dominate Paraguay’s exports, accounting for 74.66% of total shipments to Mainland China.

What does Paraguay import from Mainland China?

Electrical machinery (HS Code 85) is the top import, making up 44.56% of Paraguay’s purchases from Mainland China, followed by other industrial goods.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Mainland China?

Paraguay recorded a trade deficit of ~$1.60B in Q1 2025, driven by heavy reliance on Chinese imports compared to minimal exports.