Paraguay - Japan Trade 2023 Q3: Deficit Despite Export Boom

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Japan Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Japan surged with explosive export growth but remained heavily import-dependent in Q3 2023.

• Deficit Despite Export Boom: Paraguay posted a $38.04M trade deficit with Japan (exports: $23.32M, imports: $61.36M), despite YoY export growth exceeding +200% in all three months.
• Resource-for-Tech Exchange: Paraguay-Japan trade statistics reveal a lopsided structure: oil seeds (39% of exports) flow to Japan, while vehicles (61% of imports) dominate inbound shipments.
• Asymmetric Complementarity: Japan holds the high-value position, supplying critical machinery, while Paraguay’s role remains anchored in agricultural commodities.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Japan Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Japan

• Total Volume: Exports to Japan totaled 23.32M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was explosive, with +389.5% in July, +208.08% in August, and +522.64% in September.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain this surge.
• Key Volatility: July saw the highest MoM jump (+83.37%), while August experienced a sharp drop (-31.24%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Japan

• Total Volume: Imports from Japan reached 61.36M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was mixed: +6.5% in July, +4.71% in August, but -5.15% in September.
• Key Volatility: Imports declined MoM throughout the quarter, with the steepest drop in July (-10.74%).

Paraguay - Japan Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay ran a trade deficit of 38.04M with Japan (Exports: 23.32M vs. Imports: 61.36M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay remains heavily dependent on imports from Japan, despite a surge in export growth.

Paraguay Import Trend from Japan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Japan 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Japan Trade Records

Paraguay-Japan Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS Code 12 (Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits) at 39.42% of total exports to Japan.
• Demand Driver: Japan imports these for industrial processing, likely for edible oils or animal feed.
• Concentration: Trade is highly concentrated, with the top 3 categories (HS 12, 10, 23) making up 99.73% of exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Japan

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS Code 87 (Vehicles) at 61.40% of total imports from Japan.
• Dependency Nature: Critical technology dependency, as Japan supplies Paraguay with high-value machinery and transport equipment.

Paraguay - Japan Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (oil seeds, grains) while importing advanced machinery and vehicles from Japan.
• Value Chain Position: Japan holds the higher value-add position, supplying finished industrial goods, while Paraguay provides agricultural commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Japan to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Japan (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Japan Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Japan trade relationship is poised for continued expansion in 2024, driven by Japan’s steady demand for Paraguayan agricultural commodities (HS 12, 10, 23) and Paraguay’s reliance on Japanese high-value machinery (HS 87). However, the extreme volatility in Paraguay’s export growth (+389.5% YoY in July) suggests a potential correction or stabilization in Q4. Traders should anticipate tighter margins in the oilseed sector as global supply chains adjust, while Japanese vehicle imports may face softer demand due to Paraguay’s economic constraints. The trade deficit (38.04M in Q3) will persist unless Paraguay diversifies its export basket or negotiates preferential terms for value-added agro-exports.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Long-Term Commodity Contracts: Paraguayan exporters of oilseeds and grains should secure multi-year agreements with Japanese buyers to mitigate price swings and ensure stable revenue streams.
• Diversify Import Sources for Critical Tech: Paraguayan importers should reduce dependency on Japanese vehicles (HS 87) by exploring competitive alternatives from South Korea or China to improve cost efficiency.
• Invest in Agro-Processing for Higher Margins: Paraguay must upgrade its value chain for key exports (e.g., refining oilseeds into edible oils) to capture more value before shipment, reducing the tech-for-resource imbalance with Japan.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Japan trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Paraguay's exports to Japan surged with +389.5% YoY growth in July, totaling $23.32M, while imports from Japan reached $61.36M with mixed YoY trends.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Japan?

Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits (HS Code 12) dominate, making up 39.42% of exports, followed by grains (HS 10) and animal feed (HS 23).

What does Paraguay import from Japan?

Vehicles (HS Code 87) are the top import, accounting for 61.40% of total imports, reflecting Paraguay's reliance on Japanese machinery and transport equipment.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Japan?

Paraguay had a trade deficit of $38.04M with Japan, driven by higher imports of vehicles and machinery compared to agricultural exports.