Paraguay - Chile Trade 2023 Q4: Widening Surplus, Declining Demand

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Chile Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Chile reflects a dominant exporter role for Paraguay, with a widening surplus in Q4 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $255.65M trade surplus with Chile (exports: $296.33M, imports: $40.68M), but exports saw sharp YoY declines (-28.25% in Nov, -45.12% in Dec), signaling demand contraction.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Chile trade statistics reveal a resource-for-consumer goods dynamic: Paraguay supplies raw agricultural products (63% meat exports), while importing processed consumables (15% beverages) from Chile.
• Strategic Interdependence: The relationship is highly complementary but asymmetric—Chile captures higher value-add through processed goods, while Paraguay remains a raw material supplier.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Chile Trade Trend in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Chile

• Total Volume: $296.33M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY declines deepened each month (-28.25% in Nov, -45.12% in Dec), signaling a sharp contraction in demand or competitiveness.
• Key Volatility: December saw the steepest MoM drop (-26.9%), likely reflecting year-end inventory adjustments or reduced orders.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Chile

• Total Volume: $40.68M in Q4 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance (29.9% growth in Oct, -2.46% in Nov, +2.68% in Dec), suggesting unstable procurement patterns.
• Key Volatility: October imports spiked 21.63% MoM, possibly due to front-loaded shipments.

Paraguay - Chile Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay holds a $255.65M trade surplus with Chile (Exports: $296.33M, Imports: $40.68M).
• Relationship Status: Dominant exporter role, with exports exceeding imports by 7.3x. The widening surplus reflects Chile’s weakening import demand or Paraguay’s competitive pricing.

Paraguay Import Trend from Chile 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Chile 2023 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Chile Trade Records

Paraguay-Chile Top Trading Products in Q4 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Chile

• Top Commodity: HS Code 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) dominates with 63.32% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Chile relies on Paraguay for raw agricultural inputs, likely for further processing or direct consumption.
• Concentration: Extreme concentration—HS Code 02 alone accounts for over 60% of exports, indicating a narrow trade base.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Chile

• Top Commodity: HS Code 22 (Beverages, spirits, and vinegar) leads at 14.61% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Primarily consumer goods (beverages, pharmaceuticals, processed foods), suggesting Chile serves Paraguay’s domestic consumption needs rather than critical industrial inputs.

Paraguay - Chile Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumer Goods Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw agricultural products (meat, grains) to Chile, while importing processed consumables (beverages, pharmaceuticals) in return.
• Value Chain Position: Chile holds higher value-add, exporting processed goods (HS 22, 21, 30) versus Paraguay’s raw material exports (HS 02, 10). Trade asymmetry favors Chile’s industrial capacity.

Import Analysis by Product: Chile to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Chile (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Chile Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Chile trade relationship faces near-term headwinds, with Paraguay’s exports to Chile likely to remain under pressure in Q1 2024 due to weakening demand and volatile procurement patterns. However, Chile’s reliance on Paraguayan agricultural inputs (notably HS Code 02) ensures a baseline of trade volume, even amid contraction. The widening surplus suggests Paraguay retains pricing power in key commodities, but exporters must brace for continued volatility. Over the medium term, diversification beyond raw materials will be critical to stabilizing the trade flow.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Basket: Paraguayan exporters must reduce dependence on meat (HS 02) by expanding into secondary agricultural products (e.g., grains, oils) or value-added processed goods to mitigate demand shocks.
• Lock in Forward Contracts: Given Chile’s erratic import trends, Paraguayan meat suppliers should secure long-term agreements with Chilean processors to stabilize revenue streams and hedge against spot-market volatility.
• Target Chilean Consumer Markets: Paraguayan importers should capitalize on Chile’s strength in processed goods (HS 22) by negotiating bulk purchase deals for beverages and pharmaceuticals, leveraging the trade surplus to secure favorable terms.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Chile trade perform in 2023 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to Chile totaled $296.33M in Q4 2023, but saw sharp YoY declines (-28.25% in Nov, -45.12% in Dec). Imports from Chile were $40.68M, with mixed YoY growth.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Chile?

Meat and edible meat offal (HS Code 02) dominated Paraguay's exports to Chile, accounting for 63.32% of total shipments.

What does Paraguay import from Chile?

Paraguay primarily imports beverages, spirits, and vinegar (HS Code 22) from Chile, making up 14.61% of total imports.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Chile?

Paraguay recorded a $255.65M trade surplus with Chile in Q4 2023, with exports exceeding imports by 7.3x. The surplus widened due to declining Chilean demand.