Paraguay - Chile Trade 2023 Q1: Volatile Growth & Surplus

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Chile Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Chile is marked by volatile growth and a widening surplus in Q1 2023.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $191.91M trade surplus with Chile, exporting $224.26M (mostly meat) while importing $32.35M (primarily beverages). Exports showed erratic YoY swings, from +61.85% in January to -16.66% in March.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Chile trade statistics reveal a resource-for-consumption model—Paraguay supplies raw materials (64% meat exports) while Chile sells processed goods (17% beverages).
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but imbalanced: Paraguay’s export concentration risks exposure to price shifts, while Chile captures higher value-add.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Chile Trade Trend in Q1 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Chile

• Total Volume: $224.26M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth was volatile: +61.85% in January, +15.48% in February, then a sharp reversal to -16.66% in March.
  • No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain this swing.
• Key Volatility: January saw the highest value ($83.32M) but also the steepest MoM drop (-39.42%).

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Chile

• Total Volume: $32.35M in Q1 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • YoY growth decelerated rapidly: +60.82% in January, +21.22% in February, then +4.13% in March.
• Key Volatility: March recorded the highest monthly import value ($12.02M) with a 14.74% MoM surge.

Paraguay - Chile Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Paraguay holds a trade surplus of $191.91M (Exports $224.26M vs. Imports $32.35M).
• Relationship Status: Dominant net exporter role, with exports to Chile nearly 7x the import volume. The surplus widened despite declining YoY export growth in March.

Paraguay Import Trend from Chile 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Chile 2023 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Chile Trade Records

Paraguay-Chile Top Trading Products in Q1 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Chile

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 export is HS 02 (Meat and edible meat offal) with a 64.12% share.
• Demand Driver: Chile uses these for industrial processing or to serve its consumer market, given the high volume of meat exports.
• Concentration: Trade is heavily concentrated, with meat alone accounting for over 60% of exports.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Chile

• Top Commodity: Rank #1 import is HS 22 (Beverages, spirits, and vinegar) with a 17.40% share.
• Dependency Nature: Likely reflects food and beverage consumption needs, indicating a food security dependency.

Paraguay - Chile Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Consumption Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw materials (meat, grains) while importing processed goods (beverages, pharmaceuticals).
• Value Chain Position: Chile holds the higher value-add position, exporting processed products (HS 22, 30) compared to Paraguay’s raw material exports (HS 02, 10).

Import Analysis by Product: Chile to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Chile (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Chile Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Chile trade relationship is expected to remain robust in the near term, driven by Paraguay’s dominant surplus and Chile’s steady demand for raw materials like meat (HS 02). However, the volatile YoY growth in exports—ranging from +61.85% to -16.66%—suggests potential headwinds, possibly due to market saturation or seasonal fluctuations. Import growth from Chile is decelerating but remains stable, indicating sustained demand for processed goods. Traders should anticipate moderate export expansion but prepare for short-term volatility, especially in commodity-heavy sectors.

Strategic Moves

• Diversify Export Markets: Paraguay’s overreliance on meat exports (64.12% share) to Chile exposes it to demand shocks. Exporters should target new markets in Asia or Europe to mitigate concentration risk.
• Upgrade Value Chains: Given Chile’s dominance in processed goods (HS 22, 30), Paraguayan producers should invest in local processing capabilities to capture higher margins and reduce dependency on low-value raw exports.
• Monitor Trade Policies Closely: With no clear policy shifts explaining Q1’s volatility, businesses must track regulatory changes in both countries to preempt disruptions, particularly in meat and beverage trade flows.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Chile trade perform in 2023 Q1?

Paraguay exported $224.26M to Chile and imported $32.35M, with volatile YoY growth in exports (+61.85% in January, -16.66% by March) and decelerating import growth (+60.82% to +4.13%).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Chile?

Meat and edible meat offal (HS 02) dominated, accounting for 64.12% of Paraguay’s exports to Chile.

What does Paraguay import from Chile?

Beverages, spirits, and vinegar (HS 22) were the top import, representing 17.40% of Paraguay’s purchases from Chile.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Chile?

Paraguay held a $191.91M trade surplus (exports 7x imports), though the surplus widened despite slowing export growth in March.