Paraguay - Bolivia Trade 2024 Q4: Surplus Widens

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Bolivia Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Bolivia solidified Paraguay's net exporter role with a widening surplus in Q4 2024.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted a $12.34M trade surplus ($32.33M exports vs. $19.99M imports), driven by Bolivia’s surging December demand for Paraguayan goods.
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Bolivia trade statistics reveal resource-for-resource complementarity—chemicals (HS 38) and oilseeds (HS 12) flow to Bolivia, while fertilizers (HS 31) and minerals (HS 27) return.
• Strategic Interdependence: Bolivia holds slight leverage with higher-value fertilizer exports, but both economies rely on raw material exchange.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Bolivia Trade Trend in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Bolivia

• Total Volume: $32.33M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Strong YoY rebound in December (+92.3%) offset earlier volatility, with November also posting solid growth (+18.05%).
  • December’s 32.67% MoM surge suggests year-end demand acceleration.
• Key Volatility: December’s export value ($13.25M) was the clear peak, doubling November’s volume.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Bolivia

• Total Volume: $19.99M in Q4 2024.
• Growth Trend & Context:
  • Mixed YoY performance: October’s +50.28% spike contrasted with November’s -2.25% dip, before stabilizing in December (+8.58%).
  • October’s 33.86% MoM drop signals potential inventory adjustments post-Q3.
• Key Volatility: October’s import value ($6.94M) was the quarter’s lowest, recovering modestly thereafter.

Paraguay - Bolivia Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $12.34M (Exports $32.33M > Imports $19.99M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay solidified its net exporter role, driven by Bolivia’s outsized demand in December. The surplus widened sharply vs. Q4 2023.

Paraguay Import Trend from Bolivia 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Bolivia 2024 Q4 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Bolivia Trade Records

Paraguay-Bolivia Top Trading Products in Q4 2024

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Bolivia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 38 (Chemical products) dominates with 27.79% share.
• Demand Driver: Bolivia likely uses these chemicals for industrial processing or agricultural inputs.
• Concentration: No single category dominates (>50%), but the top 3 exports (HS 38, 12, 72) account for 57.1% of total exports, indicating moderate concentration.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Bolivia

• Top Commodity: HS Code 31 (Fertilizers) leads with 35.68% share.
• Dependency Nature: Fertilizers suggest agricultural dependency, critical for Paraguay's farming sector.

Paraguay - Bolivia Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Resource Complementarity. Paraguay exports chemicals (HS 38) and oilseeds (HS 12) while importing fertilizers (HS 31) and minerals (HS 27). Both sides trade raw materials, but Bolivia holds slight leverage with higher-value fertilizer exports.
• Value Chain Position: Bolivia’s fertilizer exports (HS 31) imply a higher value-add position compared to Paraguay’s chemical and agricultural exports.

Import Analysis by Product: Bolivia to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Bolivia (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Bolivia Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

The Paraguay-Bolivia trade relationship is poised for steady growth in 2025, driven by Bolivia’s rising demand for Paraguayan chemicals (HS 38) and oilseeds (HS 12). December’s export surge (+92.3% YoY) signals strong year-end momentum, likely extending into Q1 as Bolivia’s industrial and agricultural sectors replenish stocks. However, import volatility—particularly in fertilizers (HS 31)—calls for cautious inventory planning. With Paraguay maintaining a $12.34M surplus, expect Bolivia to push for more balanced trade terms, potentially through tariff adjustments or local sourcing incentives.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in Fertilizer Contracts: Paraguayan agribusinesses must secure long-term agreements with Bolivian suppliers to hedge against price spikes and import fluctuations, given HS 31’s 35.68% import share.
• Diversify Chemical Buyers: Exporters of HS 38 should target secondary Bolivian industries (e.g., pharmaceuticals) to reduce reliance on a single demand channel and capitalize on the 27.79% export dominance.
• Monitor Trade Policy Shifts: Traders must track Bolivia’s potential retaliatory measures (e.g., export quotas) to protect Paraguay’s surplus, especially if chemical and oilseed exports continue outpacing fertilizer imports.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Bolivia trade perform in 2024 Q4?

Paraguay's exports to Bolivia surged to $32.33M in Q4 2024, with strong YoY growth in December (+92.3%). Imports from Bolivia totaled $19.99M, showing mixed YoY performance but stabilizing by December (+8.58%).

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Bolivia?

The top exports are chemical products (HS 38, 27.79% share), oilseeds (HS 12), and metals (HS 72), accounting for 57.1% of total exports to Bolivia.

What does Paraguay import from Bolivia?

Fertilizers (HS 31, 35.68% share) dominate Paraguay's imports from Bolivia, reflecting agricultural dependency, along with minerals (HS 27).

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Bolivia?

Paraguay recorded a $12.34M trade surplus with Bolivia in Q4 2024, widening sharply compared to Q4 2023 due to Bolivia's outsized demand for Paraguayan exports.