Paraguay - Argentina Trade 2025 Q1: Surplus Amid Export Dip
Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Argentina Trade
The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Argentina remains strong but faces export headwinds in Q1 2025.
- Economic Pulse: Paraguay holds a $682.8M trade surplus (exports: $935.37M, imports: $252.57M), though exports to Argentina fell YoY amid demand weakness.
- Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Argentina trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech imbalance: 81.86% of Paraguay’s exports are oilseeds (HS 12), while it imports vehicles (HS 87) and fuels (HS 27) from Argentina.
- Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but asymmetric—Paraguay relies on Argentina for industrial goods, while Argentina depends on Paraguayan agricultural inputs.
This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.
Paraguay-Argentina Trade Trend in Q1 2025
Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Argentina
- Total Volume: $935.37M in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- YoY declines persisted across all months, with February (-40.29%) and March (-26.16%) showing severe contractions.
- No specific trade news or policy changes were reported to explain the downturn.
- Key Volatility: January saw an anomalous 388.58% MoM surge, but this was followed by a -5.31% drop in February.
Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Argentina
- Total Volume: $252.57M in Q1 2025.
- Growth Trend & Context:
- Mixed YoY performance: February (+22.98%) growth contrasted with January (-11.41%) and March (-15.15%) declines.
- Key Volatility: January imports fell -19.85% MoM, while February rebounded sharply (+17.59%).
Paraguay - Argentina Trade Balance & Market Dynamics
- Net Position: Paraguay holds a trade surplus of $682.8M (Exports: $935.37M > Imports: $252.57M).
- Relationship Status: Strong net exporter role, with exports nearly 3.7x the value of imports. The surplus widened despite YoY export declines, reflecting Argentina’s weaker import demand.
Paraguay Import Trend from Argentina 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 75.06M | -19.85% | -11.41% |
| Feb | 88.27M | 17.59% | 22.98% |
| Mar | 89.24M | 1.11% | -15.15% |
| Total | 252.57M | - | - |
Paraguay Export Trend to Argentina 2025 Q1 (Source: yTrade)**
| Month | Value | MoM | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 321.99M | 388.58% | -9.66% |
| Feb | 304.88M | -5.31% | -40.29% |
| Mar | 308.50M | 1.19% | -26.16% |
| Total | 935.37M | - | - |
Get Historical Paraguay Argentina Trade Records
Paraguay-Argentina Top Trading Products in Q1 2025
Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Argentina
- Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits) dominates with 81.86% of total exports to Argentina.
- Demand Driver: Argentina uses these for industrial processing, likely in food production or biofuel manufacturing.
- Concentration: Extreme reliance on a single category (81.86%), indicating high export vulnerability.
Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Argentina
- Top Commodity: HS Code 87 (Vehicles) leads at 10.46% of imports, followed closely by HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels) at 9.42%.
- Dependency Nature: Mixed profile—vehicles suggest industrial dependency, while mineral fuels point to energy security needs.
Paraguay - Argentina Trade Relationship Dynamics
- The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports raw agricultural commodities (HS 12) while importing higher-value industrial goods (HS 87, 27).
- Value Chain Position: Argentina holds the higher value-add position, supplying machinery and energy products versus Paraguay’s bulk commodity exports.
Import Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | 26.41M | 10.46% |
| 27 | 23.79M | 9.42% |
| 30 | 15.59M | 6.17% |
| 39 | 15.22M | 6.03% |
| 38 | 14.67M | 5.81% |
| 72 | 11.99M | 4.75% |
| 21 | 11.87M | 4.70% |
| 33 | 10.66M | 4.22% |
| 19 | 10.43M | 4.13% |
| 96 | 8.70M | 3.44% |
Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)
| HS Code | Value | Percent |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | 765.67M | 81.86% |
| 23 | 34.44M | 3.68% |
| 15 | 34.35M | 3.67% |
| 27 | 28.01M | 2.99% |
| 85 | 17.55M | 1.88% |
| 08 | 8.46M | 0.90% |
| 83 | 7.96M | 0.85% |
| 39 | 4.01M | 0.43% |
| 19 | 2.78M | 0.30% |
| 63 | 2.75M | 0.29% |
Check Detailed Paraguay-Argentina Trade HS Code Breakdown
Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations
Forecast
Paraguay’s trade surplus with Argentina is likely to persist in Q2 2025, but exporters should brace for continued volatility. The sharp YoY declines in key commodities like oilseeds (HS 12) signal weakening Argentine demand, possibly due to economic constraints or shifting industrial priorities. However, Paraguay’s structural role as a bulk commodity supplier ensures baseline trade flows, even if at reduced volumes. Traders must monitor Argentina’s import policies and domestic consumption trends closely, as any further deterioration could deepen the export slump.
Strategic Moves
- Diversify Export Markets: Reduce reliance on Argentina by targeting alternative buyers for oilseeds, such as Brazil or the EU, to mitigate demand shocks.
- Lock In Long-Term Contracts: Secure fixed-price agreements with Argentine industrial buyers to stabilize revenue streams amid price fluctuations.
- Boost Value-Added Exports: Invest in processing capabilities for oilseeds (e.g., refined oils) to capture higher margins and reduce vulnerability to raw commodity price swings.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Paraguay - Argentina trade perform in 2025 Q1?
Paraguay exported $935.37M to Argentina but faced YoY declines, while imports totaled $252.57M with mixed growth.
What are the top exports from Paraguay to Argentina?
Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits (HS Code 12) dominated, accounting for 81.86% of Paraguay’s exports to Argentina.
What does Paraguay import from Argentina?
Top imports include vehicles (HS Code 87) and mineral fuels (HS Code 27), reflecting industrial and energy needs.
What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Argentina?
Paraguay holds a trade surplus of $682.8M, with exports nearly 3.7x higher than imports. The surplus widened despite export declines.
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