Paraguay - Argentina Trade 2023 Q3: Surplus Soars 128%

Key Market Takeaways: Paraguay - Argentina Trade

The bilateral trade relationship between Paraguay and Argentina surged in Q3 2023, with Paraguay solidifying its net exporter role.

• Economic Pulse: Paraguay posted a $515.18M trade surplus ($866.97M exports vs. $351.79M imports), driven by explosive YoY export growth (up to +128% in September).
• Exchange Structure: Paraguay - Argentina trade statistics reveal a resource-for-tech dynamic—Paraguay supplies agricultural bulk (72% oilseeds/grains) while importing energy (30% mineral fuels) and machinery.
• Strategic Interdependence: Highly complementary but asymmetric—Argentina holds value-add leverage, while Paraguay depends on single-commodity exports.

This bilateral trade snapshot is based on verified customs data from the yTrade database.

Paraguay-Argentina Trade Trend in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Performance: Shipments to Argentina

• Total Volume: $866.97M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Exports surged YoY (+57.94% in July, +99.86% in August, +128.09% in September), indicating robust demand or expanded trade capacity. No specific news to contextualize the spike.
• Key Volatility: August saw a sharp MoM drop (-21.6%), followed by a 12.81% recovery in September.

Paraguay Import Performance: Sourcing from Argentina

• Total Volume: $351.79M in Q3 2023.
• Growth Trend & Context: Imports rebounded YoY (+6.15% in August, +19.71% in September) after a -14.05% contraction in July, suggesting fluctuating demand or supply adjustments.
• Key Volatility: August marked the highest MoM jump (+13.64%), while July was the weakest month.

Paraguay - Argentina Trade Balance & Market Dynamics

• Net Position: Trade surplus of $515.18M (Exports $866.97M > Imports $351.79M).
• Relationship Status: Paraguay solidified its net exporter role, with exports to Argentina more than doubling imports. The widening surplus highlights asymmetric trade reliance.

Paraguay Import Trend from Argentina 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Paraguay Export Trend to Argentina 2023 Q3 (Source: yTrade)**

Get Historical Paraguay Argentina Trade Records

Paraguay-Argentina Top Trading Products in Q3 2023

Paraguay Export Profile: What Does Paraguay Sell to Argentina

• Top Commodity: HS Code 12 (Oilseeds, grains, seeds, fruits) dominates with 72.00% of exports.
• Demand Driver: Argentina uses these for industrial processing, likely in food production or biofuel.
• Concentration: Extreme—HS Code 12 alone accounts for over 70% of exports, indicating heavy reliance on a single category.

Paraguay Import Profile: What Does Paraguay Buy from Argentina

• Top Commodity: HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) leads at 30.29% of imports.
• Dependency Nature: Energy security dependency, as Paraguay relies on Argentina for refined petroleum products.

Paraguay - Argentina Trade Relationship Dynamics

• The Exchange Model: Resource-for-Tech Complementarity. Paraguay exports agricultural raw materials (HS 12) and imports energy (HS 27) and machinery (HS 84).
• Value Chain Position: Argentina holds higher value-add, supplying processed energy and machinery, while Paraguay provides low-margin bulk commodities.

Import Analysis by Product: Argentina to Paraguay (Source: yTrade)

Export Analysis by Product: Paraguay to Argentina (Source: yTrade)

Check Detailed Paraguay-Argentina Trade HS Code Breakdown

Future Outlook & Strategic Recommendations

Forecast

Paraguay’s trade surplus with Argentina is set to widen further in Q4 2023, driven by sustained demand for agricultural commodities (HS 12) and Argentina’s reliance on Paraguayan raw materials for industrial processing. However, volatility in monthly export growth—particularly the sharp August drop—signals potential supply chain or pricing risks. Energy imports (HS 27) will remain critical for Paraguay, but traders should prepare for price fluctuations as Argentina’s domestic fuel demand competes with exports. The Paraguay-Argentina trade forecast hinges on stable agricultural output and energy supply agreements.

Strategic Moves

• Lock in long-term contracts for oilseed exports: With HS 12 dominating Paraguay’s sales, exporters must secure fixed-price agreements to mitigate volatility and capitalize on Argentina’s structural demand.
• Diversify energy suppliers: Reduce dependency on Argentine mineral fuels (HS 27) by exploring LNG or renewable energy partnerships with Brazil or Bolivia to hedge against supply disruptions.
• Invest in value-added processing: Paraguay’s reliance on low-margin bulk exports leaves it vulnerable to price swings. Traders should pivot toward semi-processed goods (e.g., soybean oil) to capture higher margins and reduce exposure to raw commodity cycles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did Paraguay - Argentina trade perform in 2023 Q3?

Paraguay's exports to Argentina surged YoY (+57.94% in July to +128.09% in September), totaling $866.97M, while imports rebounded to $351.79M after a July contraction.

What are the top exports from Paraguay to Argentina?

HS Code 12 (Oilseeds, grains, seeds, fruits) dominates, accounting for 72.00% of Paraguay's exports to Argentina.

What does Paraguay import from Argentina?

HS Code 27 (Mineral fuels, oils) leads at 30.29% of imports, reflecting Paraguay's energy dependency on Argentina.

What is the trade balance between Paraguay and Argentina?

Paraguay recorded a trade surplus of $515.18M, with exports more than doubling imports, widening the surplus.